Mexico vs South Korea Previsão

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

South Korea

Away

Estadio AKRON, Zapopan

Chamada de IA Mexico ou empate

45%

29%

25%

Vitória do Mandante Empate Vitória do Visitante

Palpite Mexico x South Korea: O Sportiko estima 45% de probabilidade de vitória para o Mexico, 25% para o South Korea e 29% de empate. Atualizado 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Menos de 3,5 Gols 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Mexico secured a narrow 1–0 victory over South Korea in their World Cup group stage encounter, with the decisive moment arriving early in the second half. Luis Romo broke the deadlock on 50 minutes, converting what proved to be the only goal of the match. The first half had been a cautious, goalless affair, with Kang-in Lee picking up a yellow card as early as the fourth minute.

South Korea held the majority of possession at 57% and edged the expected goals metric at 0.63 to Mexico's 0.48, yet it was Mexico who showed greater efficiency, registering four shots on target to their opponents' two. South Korea's attempts to turn the game around were hampered by a yellow card for Seung Ho Paik in the 58th minute, and despite introducing substitutes including Son Heung-min just after the hour mark, they could not find an equaliser.

Mexico managed the result comfortably through a series of second-half substitutions, with Romo himself withdrawn at 71 minutes. Our pre-match AI model had identified a Mexico win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 4'

Kang-in Lee Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Luis Romo

50' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 57'

Jae-sung Lee ⇄ Hwang Hee-chan

⇄ 57'

Son Heung-min ⇄ Hyeon-gyu Oh

▮ 58'

Seung Ho Paik Yellow Card

Brian Gutiérrez ⇄ Orbelín Pineda

71' ⇄

Luis Romo ⇄ Obed Vargas

71' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Young-woo Seol ⇄ Yang Hyun-Jun

⇄ 71'

Kim Moon-hwan ⇄ Ji-sung Eom

⇄ 77'

Seung Ho Paik ⇄ Gue-sung Cho

Raúl Jiménez ⇄ Santiago Giménez

80' ⇄

Roberto Alvarado ⇄ Israel Reyes

80' ⇄

Julián Quiñones ⇄ César Huerta

84' ⇄

FT 1–0

Mexico

Match Stats

South Korea

43% Ball Possession 57%

0.48 Expected Goals (xG) 0.63

8 Total Shots 7

4 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 3

1 Blocked Shots 2

5 Shots insidebox 4

3 Shots outsidebox 3

0 Corner Kicks 1

3 Offsides 6

9 Fouls 7

0 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

430 Total passes 567

351 Passes accurate 478

82% Passes % 84%

-0.23 goals_prevented -0.23

Mexico

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Luis Romo M	7.9	71'	1	–	1	37 (32%)	4
1 Raúl Rangel G	7.2	92'	–	–	–	30 (19%)	–
26 Brian Gutiérrez M	7.2	71'	–	–	1	17 (15%)	1
23 Jesús Gallardo D	6.9	92'	–	–	1	40 (28%)	2
4 Edson Álvarez D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	78 (71%)	1
16 Julián Quiñones F	6.7	84'	–	–	1	26 (21%)	–
5 Johan Vásquez D	6.6	92'	–	–	–	54 (47%)	–
25 Roberto Alvarado F	6.6	80'	–	–	1	26 (19%)	1
18 Obed Vargas M	6.6	21'	–	–	1	12 (9%)	–
15 Israel Reyes D	6.5	12'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
6 Erik Lira M	6.5	92'	–	–	–	48 (41%)	2
9 Raúl Jiménez F	6.5	80'	–	–	1	21 (14%)	–
2 Jorge Sánchez D	6.3	92'	–	–	–	26 (24%)	–
21 César Huerta M	6.3	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	1
17 Orbelín Pineda M	6.3	21'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
11 Santiago Giménez F	6.2	12'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–

South Korea

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Ji-sung Eom F	7.2	21'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
4 Kim Min-jae D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	93 (87%)	2
2 Han-Beom Lee D	6.7	92'	–	–	–	63 (52%)	1
19 Kang-in Lee F	6.7	92'	–	–	1	52 (47%)	1
10 Jae-sung Lee F	6.6	57'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	4
7 Son Heung-min F	6.6	57'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	1
11 Hwang Hee-chan F	6.6	35'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	–
20 Yang Hyun-Jun F	6.6	21'	–	–	1	6 (3%)	3
1 Kim Seung-gyu G	6.5	92'	–	–	–	37 (24%)	–
3 Gi-Hyuk Lee D	6.5	92'	–	–	–	83 (71%)	1
6 Hwang In-beom M	6.5	92'	–	–	–	59 (51%)	–
15 Kim Moon-hwan M	6.3	71'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	1
9 Gue-sung Cho F	6.3	15'	–	–	1	–	–
18 Hyeon-gyu Oh F	6.3	35'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
22 Young-woo Seol M	6.2	71'	–	–	1	29 (23%)	–
8 Seung Ho Paik M	6.2	77'	–	–	–	53 (44%)	1

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Nossa tendência

Mexico ou empate

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Mexico

LWWWW

South Korea

LLWWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 19, 2026, Mexico faces South Korea, a clash between two teams with contrasting styles. Mexico, known for their technical prowess and attacking flair, will aim to control possession and exploit South Korea's defensive vulnerabilities. Conversely, South Korea's strength lies in their pace and counter-attacking ability, led by key players such as Son Heung-min. Historically, Mexico has performed well against Asian teams, but South Korea's recent form, including their strong showing in qualifiers, suggests this will be a competitive encounter. The outcome may hinge on set pieces and the ability to capitalize on transitional moments.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

25%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

South Korea goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	7	4	2
1	10	14	7	2	1
2	9	9	5	2
3	4	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5

↑ Mexico goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Players in form

Mexico

J. Quiñones 4 gls

South Korea

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	6.8%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.2%	14.1%	6.5%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.8%	9.2%	4.8%	1.7%	0.4%
3	4.3%	4.5%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mexico	Draw	South Korea
Mexico	27.5%	4.3%	1.5%
Draw	16.8%	18.7%	10.2%
South Korea	2.2%	4.3%	14.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mexico vs South Korea

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Mexico — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H England	L	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Ecuador	W	2 - 0
25 Jun	A Czechia	W	0 - 3
19 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
11 Jun	H South Africa	W	2 - 0

South Korea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jun	A South Africa	L	1 - 0
19 Jun	A Mexico	L	1 - 0
12 Jun	H Czechia	W	2 - 1
04 Jun	H El Salvador	W	1 - 0
31 May	H Trinidad and Tobago	W	5 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Mexico

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Javier Aguirre

1 Rangel

23 Gallardo

5 Vásquez

4 Álvarez

2 Sánchez

7 Romo

6 Lira

26 Gutiérrez

16 Quiñones

9 Jiménez

25 Alvarado

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Raúl Rangel	G
2	Jorge Sánchez	D
4	Edson Álvarez	D
5	Johan Vásquez	D
23	Jesús Gallardo	D
26	Brian Gutiérrez	M
6	Erik Lira	M
7	Luis Romo	M
25	Roberto Alvarado	F
9	Raúl Jiménez	F
16	Julián Quiñones	F

Substitutes

17	Orbelín Pineda	M
18	Obed Vargas	M
12	Carlos Acevedo	G
13	Guillermo Ochoa	G
15	Israel Reyes	D
20	Mateo Chávez	D
8	Álvaro Fidalgo	M
19	Gilberto Mora	M
24	Luis Chávez	M
10	Alexis Vega	F
21	César Huerta	M
11	Santiago Giménez	F
14	Armando González	F
22	Guillermo Martínez	F

South Korea

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Myung-Bo Hong

1 Seung-gyu

3 Lee

4 Min-jae

2 Lee

22 Seol

8 Paik

6 In-beom

15 Moon-hwan

10 Lee

19 Lee

7 Heung-min

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kim Seung-gyu	G
2	Han-Beom Lee	D
4	Kim Min-jae	D
3	Gi-Hyuk Lee	D
15	Kim Moon-hwan	M
6	Hwang In-beom	M
8	Seung Ho Paik	M
22	Young-woo Seol	M
19	Kang-in Lee	F
10	Jae-sung Lee	F
7	Son Heung-min	F

Substitutes

11	Hwang Hee-chan	F
18	Hyeon-gyu Oh	F
20	Yang Hyun-Jun	F
12	Song Bum-keun	G
21	Jo Hyeonwoo	G
5	Kim Tae-hyeon	D
14	Wi-je Cho	D
13	Lee Tae-seok	D
16	Jin-seob Park	M
23	Jens Castrop	M
17	Jun-Ho Bae	M
24	Jin-gyu Kim	M
25	Ji-sung Eom	F
26	Dong-gyeong Lee	M
9	Gue-sung Cho	F