Le Havre vs Marseille Prognoza

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33

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Marseille

Away

Stade Océane, Le Havre

Typowanie AI Marseille – wygrana lub remis

11%

22%

66%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Le Havre vs Marseille: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Le Havre na 11%, Marseille na 66%, a remisu na 22%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

A tense Ligue 1 encounter at Le Havre remained goalless at half-time, with the decisive moment arriving early in the second half. A VAR review confirmed a penalty for Marseille in the 53rd minute, and Mason Greenwood converted two minutes later to give the visitors the lead. The match grew increasingly fractious in the aftermath, with four yellow cards shown in quick succession between the 57th and 59th minutes.

Le Havre pushed for an equaliser in the closing stages but were denied in dramatic fashion when a late goal from Igor Paixão was ruled out by VAR in stoppage time, preserving Marseille's slender advantage. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Marseille win as the most likely outcome at 66%, a call that proved correct.

The statistics reflected a closely contested affair, with possession split evenly at 50-50 and expected goals nearly identical at 1.21 for Le Havre and 1.14 for Marseille. Ultimately, Greenwood's penalty proved the difference, securing all three points for the away side.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Sofiane Boufal Yellow Card

41' ▮

HT 0–0

Ayumu Seko Yellow Card

47' ▮

🖵 53'

Mason Greenwood Penalty confirmed

⚽ 0–1 55'

Mason Greenwood Penalty

Yanis Zouaoui Yellow Card

57' ▮

▮ 59'

Tochukwu Nnadi Yellow Card

⇄ 66'

Tochukwu Nnadi ⇄ Arthur Vermeeren

Fodé Doucouré ⇄ Timothee Pembele

72' ⇄

Sofiane Boufal ⇄ Simon Ebonog

72' ⇄

Yanis Zouaoui ⇄ Enzo Koffi

80' ⇄

▮ 81'

Q. Timber Yellow Card

⇄ 87'

Mason Greenwood ⇄ Ange Lago

⇄ 87'

Q. Timber ⇄ Nouhoum Kamissoko

Simon Ebonog Yellow Card

88' ▮

Lucas Gourna-Douath ⇄ Yassine Kechta

89' ⇄

⇄ 90'

Amine Gouiri ⇄ Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri

🖵 90+8'

Igor Paixão Goal cancelled

FT 0–1

Le Havre

Match Stats

Marseille

50% Ball Possession 50%

1.14 Expected Goals (xG) 1.21

10 Total Shots 8

2 Shots on Goal 3

4 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 1

8 Shots insidebox 5

2 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 0

4 Offsides 3

20 Fouls 22

4 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

386 Total passes 392

310 Passes accurate 317

80% Passes % 81%

0.13 goals_prevented 0.13

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Marseille – wygrana lub remis

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Le Havre

LDLDL

Marseille

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Le Havre · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 9, 2026, Le Havre will host Marseille at home. Le Havre, known for their solid defensive structure, will need to be particularly vigilant against Marseille's potent attacking trio, which has registered an impressive average of 2.2 goals per game this season. Marseille’s away form has been strong, with a win rate of around 60% in away matches, while Le Havre struggles to maintain consistency, particularly against top-tier opponents. Key players to watch include Le Havre’s goalkeeper, who has made crucial saves this season, and Marseille's leading scorer, who has been instrumental in breaking down defensive lines. Overall, this matchup could hinge on Le Havre's ability to frustrate Marseille's attack while leveraging their home advantage.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marseille goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	17	15	9	4	1
1	6	10	9	5	2	1
2	2	3	2	1	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Le Havre goals · most likely 0–1 (17.4%)

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Players in form

Le Havre

M. Samatta 2 gls

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Le Havre vs Marseille

0 Le Havre Wins

0 Draws

3 Marseille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
18 Oct 2025	Marseille	6 - 2	Le Havre
10 May 2025	Le Havre	1 - 3	Marseille
05 Jan 2025	Marseille	5 - 1	Le Havre

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Le Havre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Toulouse	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Angers	D	0 - 0
05 Sep	H Stade Brestois 29	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	A Lyon	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	H Monaco	L	0 - 1

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2