Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

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Atalanta

Away

Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Fiorentina

51%

24%

25%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction: Sportiko gives Fiorentina a 51% chance of winning, Atalanta 25% and the draw 24%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Fiorentina and Atalanta played out a 1–1 draw in the final round of the Serie A season, with the hosts dominating possession but ultimately unable to hold on for the three points. Roberto Piccoli gave Atalanta the surprise lead just before the break, finishing to put the visitors ahead against the run of play at the Artemio Franchi.

Fiorentina pushed hard after half-time, controlling 60% of the ball and registering 21 total shots to Atalanta's 11, with an expected goals figure of 1.38 reflecting their territorial advantage. The equaliser arrived in unfortunate fashion on 82 minutes, when Pietro Comuzzo turned the ball into his own net to level proceedings. A flurry of substitutions from both sides in the second half failed to produce a winner, and the points were shared.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Fiorentina win as the most likely outcome at 51%, though the visitors' early goal and resolute defending ultimately denied the hosts a victory their overall performance might have merited.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Roberto Piccoli assist: Marco Brescianini

39' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Raoul Bellanova ⇄ Davide Zappacosta

▮ 47'

Kamaldeen Sulemana Yellow Card

▮ 60'

Honest Ahanor Yellow Card

⇄ 62'

Lazar Samardžić ⇄ Charles De Ketelaere

Daniele Rugani ⇄ Marin Pongračić

67' ⇄

Marco Brescianini ⇄ Cher Ndour

67' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Giorgio Scalvini ⇄ Berat Djimsiti

Albert Guðmundsson ⇄ Manor Solomon

76' ⇄

Robin Gosens ⇄ Luís Balbo

76' ⇄

⇄ 81'

Kamaldeen Sulemana ⇄ Dominic Vavassori

⇄ 81'

M. de Roon ⇄ Gianluca Scamacca

⚽ 1–1 82'

Pietro Comuzzo Own Goal

Oliver Christensen ⇄ Luca Lezzerini

87' ⇄

FT 1–1

Fiorentina

Match Stats

Atalanta

40% Ball Possession 60%

0.85 Expected Goals (xG) 1.38

11 Total Shots 21

4 Shots on Goal 6

4 Shots off Goal 12

3 Blocked Shots 3

8 Shots insidebox 11

3 Shots outsidebox 10

3 Corner Kicks 3

4 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 14

0 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 3

409 Total passes 612

350 Passes accurate 552

86% Passes % 90%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

Fiorentina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
53 Oliver Christensen G	8.7	87'	–	–	–	41 (30%)	–
17 Jack Harrison F	7.9	90'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	3
91 Roberto Piccoli F	7.3	90'	1	–	2	8 (5%)	1
21 Robin Gosens D	7.2	76'	–	–	–	36 (28%)	1
2 Dodô D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	44 (40%)	–
19 Manor Solomon F	6.9	14'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
10 Albert Guðmundsson F	6.9	76'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	–
3 Daniele Rugani D	6.9	67'	–	–	1	32 (29%)	1
8 Rolando Mandragora M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	33 (29%)	–
80 Giovanni Fabbian M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	26 (23%)	2
4 Marco Brescianini M	6.6	67'	–	1	–	23 (18%)	–
5 Marin Pongračić D	6.5	23'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	–
27 Cher Ndour M	6.5	23'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
15 Pietro Comuzzo D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	47 (43%)	–
62 Luís Balbo D	6.2	14'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
1 Luca Lezzerini G	—	3'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–

Atalanta

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lazar Samardžić F	7.3	62'	–	–	2	41 (38%)	–
4 Isak Hien D	7.2	90'	–	–	1	37 (34%)	–
7 Kamaldeen Sulemana F	7.0	81'	–	–	3	39 (36%)	–
15 M. de Roon M	6.9	81'	–	–	2	86 (78%)	1
42 Giorgio Scalvini D	6.9	67'	–	–	–	56 (51%)	2
19 Berat Djimsiti D	6.9	23'	–	–	–	23 (22%)	–
77 Davide Zappacosta D	6.9	45'	–	–	1	36 (32%)	–
6 Yunus Musah M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	57 (50%)	–
57 Marco Sportiello G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	1
45 Dominic Vavassori F	6.6	9'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
8 Mario Pašalić M	6.5	90'	–	–	5	74 (68%)	–
18 Giacomo Raspadori F	6.5	90'	–	–	2	39 (29%)	2
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	6.3	28'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
16 Raoul Bellanova M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	28 (28%)	–
9 Gianluca Scamacca F	6.3	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
69 Honest Ahanor D	5.9	90'	–	–	1	56 (54%)	2

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Trudna wygrana lub remis Fiorentina

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Fiorentina

DDWLD

Atalanta

LDLWD

Last 3 meetings Fiorentina · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Atalanta, both teams are vying for crucial points as the season approaches its climax. Fiorentina has shown a solid home record, winning 60% of their matches at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season, bolstered by a strong attack that averages 1.8 goals per game. Conversely, Atalanta boasts one of the league's most potent offenses, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match, and they have a decent away record with a 50% win rate. Key players to watch include Fiorentina's striker, who is in good form, and Atalanta's prolific forward, who has been pivotal in their attacking play. This matchup promises to be a tactical battle, with both teams aiming for European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atalanta goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	7	4	1
1	10	11	6	2	1
2	9	10	5	2	1
3	5	6	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Fiorentina goals · most likely 1–1 (11.5%)

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Head to Head: Fiorentina vs Atalanta

1 Fiorentina Wins

0 Draws

2 Atalanta Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Nov 2025	Atalanta	2 - 0	Fiorentina
30 Mar 2025	Fiorentina	1 - 0	Atalanta
15 Sep 2024	Atalanta	3 - 2	Fiorentina

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Fiorentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	H Deportivo La Coruna	D	1 - 1
01 Aug	A Real Madrid	D	2 - 2
29 Jul	A Watford	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	A QPR	L	3 - 2
22 May	H Atalanta	D	1 - 1

Atalanta — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Feyenoord	L	2 - 1
22 May	A Fiorentina	D	1 - 1
17 May	H Bologna	L	0 - 1
10 May	A AC Milan	W	2 - 3
02 May	H Genoa	D	0 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Atalanta

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Raffaele Palladino

57 Sportiello

69 Ahanor

4 Hien

42 Scalvini

6 Musah

8 Pasalic

15 Roon

16 Bellanova

7 Sulemana

10 Samardzic

18 Raspadori

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
57	M. Sportiello	G
42	G. Scalvini	D
4	I. Hien	D
69	H. Ahanor	D
16	R. Bellanova	M
15	M. De Roon	M
8	M. Pasalic	M
6	Y. Musah	M
10	L. Samardzic	F
7	K. Sulemana	F
18	G. Raspadori	F

Substitutes

29	M. Carnesecchi	G
31	F. Rossi	G
19	B. Djimsiti	D
23	S. Kolasinac	D
77	D. Zappacosta	D
13	Ederson	M
45	D. Vavassori	F
40	R. Obric	D
9	G. Scamacca	F
5	M. Bakker	D
90	N. Krstovic	F
59	N. Zalewski	M
17	C. De Ketelaere	F

Fiorentina

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Paolo Vanoli

53 Christensen

21 Gosens

3 Rugani

15 Comuzzo

2 Dodo

4 Brescianini

8 Mandragora

80 Fabbian

10 Gudmundsson

91 Piccoli

17 Harrison

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
53	O. Christensen	G
2	Dodo	D
15	P. Comuzzo	D
3	D. Rugani	D
21	R. Gosens	D
80	G. Fabbian	M
8	R. Mandragora	M
4	M. Brescianini	M
17	J. Harrison	F
91	R. Piccoli	F
10	A. Gudmundsson	F

Substitutes

43	D. de Gea	G
1	L. Lezzerini	G
5	M. Pongracic	D
27	C. Ndour	M
61	R. Braschi	F
29	N. Fortini	D
19	M. Solomon	F
44	N. Fagioli	M
62	L. Balbo	D
69	G. Puzzoli	F