Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Bologna

Away

Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Typowanie AI Atalanta lub remis

39%

26%

35%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Atalanta vs Bologna prediction: Sportiko gives Atalanta a 39% chance of winning, Bologna 35% and the draw 26%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Atalanta fell to a 1-0 home defeat against Bologna in Serie A matchday 37, with the decisive moment arriving late in the second half. A goalless first half gave little indication of where the game was headed, though Bologna edged possession at 55% and created the cleaner opportunities across the 90 minutes.

The visitors took control after the break, with both sides making multiple substitutions around the hour mark. Riccardo Orsolini broke the deadlock in the 78th minute with a well-taken finish, capitalising on Bologna's superior shot count of five on target compared to Atalanta's single effort. Yellow cards for Tommaso Pobega and Mario Pašalić added to Atalanta's frustrations on an uncomfortable afternoon. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atalanta win as the most likely outcome at 39%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark.

Despite Atalanta's late changes, including the introduction of Charles De Ketelaere and Davide Zappacosta, the home side could not find an equaliser. Bologna's disciplined defensive display secured all three points and a deserved victory on the road.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

▮ 52'

Tommaso Pobega Yellow Card

Nicola Zalewski ⇄ Yunus Musah

63' ⇄

M. de Roon ⇄ Mario Pašalić

63' ⇄

Giacomo Raspadori ⇄ Kamaldeen Sulemana

64' ⇄

⇄ 69'

Tommaso Pobega ⇄ Nikola Moro

⇄ 69'

Federico Bernardeschi ⇄ Riccardo Orsolini

⇄ 69'

Santiago Castro ⇄ Thijs Dallinga

Mario Pašalić Yellow Card

77' ▮

⚽ 0–1 78'

Riccardo Orsolini assist: Jonathan Rowe

Charles De Ketelaere ⇄ Mitchel Bakker

82' ⇄

Davide Zappacosta ⇄ Sead Kolašinac

88' ⇄

⇄ 88'

Jonathan Rowe ⇄ Benjamín Domínguez

FT 0–1

Atalanta

Match Stats

Bologna

45% Ball Possession 55%

0.76 Expected Goals (xG) 0.69

10 Total Shots 10

1 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 2

7 Shots insidebox 7

3 Shots outsidebox 3

2 Corner Kicks 5

3 Offsides 1

17 Fouls 6

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 1

401 Total passes 479

335 Passes accurate 396

84% Passes % 83%

0.37 goals_prevented 0.37

Atalanta

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	7.7	82'	–	–	2	28 (21%)	2
13 Éderson M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	36 (35%)	3
42 Giorgio Scalvini D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	57 (50%)	5
29 Marco Carnesecchi G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (22%)	–
77 Davide Zappacosta M	6.9	88'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	2
59 Nicola Zalewski M	6.9	63'	–	–	1	23 (14%)	3
6 Yunus Musah M	6.9	27'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	2
8 Mario Pašalić M	6.7	27'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	1
18 Giacomo Raspadori F	6.7	64'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	–
69 Honest Ahanor D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	33 (29%)	3
15 M. de Roon M	6.6	63'	–	–	–	34 (31%)	3
5 Mitchel Bakker D	6.6	8'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
90 Nikola Krstović F	6.5	90'	–	–	1	22 (15%)	1
7 Kamaldeen Sulemana F	6.3	26'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
19 Berat Djimsiti D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	35 (33%)	1
23 Sead Kolašinac D	—	2'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Bologna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Juan Miranda D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	66 (54%)	3
1 Łukasz Skorupski G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	–
14 Torbjørn Heggem D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	58 (54%)	1
7 Riccardo Orsolini F	7.3	21'	1	–	2	8 (7%)	1
17 João Mário D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	47 (34%)	–
5 Eivind Helland D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	52 (46%)	–
6 Nikola Moro M	6.9	21'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	–
11 Jonathan Rowe F	6.9	88'	–	1	2	26 (20%)	–
4 Tommaso Pobega M	6.9	69'	–	–	–	26 (21%)	1
19 Lewis Ferguson M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	45 (36%)	1
9 Santiago Castro F	6.7	69'	–	–	1	18 (11%)	–
8 Remo Freuler M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	45 (40%)	–
10 Federico Bernardeschi F	6.5	69'	–	–	2	19 (14%)	–
24 Thijs Dallinga F	6.2	21'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
30 Benjamín Domínguez F	—	2'	–	–	–	–	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Atalanta lub remis

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Atalanta

LDLWD

Bologna

WDLDW

Last 3 meetings Atalanta · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash on May 17, 2026, Atalanta will host Bologna at their home ground. Atalanta has been performing strongly this season, boasting a solid home record with a 70% win rate at their stadium. Their attacking prowess, featuring key players who average over 2 goals per match, poses a significant threat to Bologna's defense, which has struggled against high-scoring teams. Bologna, however, has shown resilience with a decent away form, securing points in critical matches. This encounter will likely hinge on Atalanta’s ability to break down Bologna’s defensive setup early in the game.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bologna goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	9	6	2	1
1	10	12	8	3	1
2	7	9	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Atalanta goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Head to Head: Atalanta vs Bologna

2 Atalanta Wins

1 Draws

0 Bologna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Jan 2026	Bologna	0 - 2	Atalanta
13 Apr 2025	Atalanta	2 - 0	Bologna
28 Sep 2024	Bologna	1 - 1	Atalanta

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Atalanta — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Feyenoord	L	2 - 1
22 May	A Fiorentina	D	1 - 1
17 May	H Bologna	L	0 - 1
10 May	A AC Milan	W	2 - 3
02 May	H Genoa	D	0 - 0

Bologna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	H Iraklis 1908	W	2 - 0
22 Jul	H 1. FC Heidenheim	D	1 - 1
18 Jul	H Arminia Bielefeld	L	0 - 2
23 May	H Inter	D	3 - 3
17 May	A Atalanta	W	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Atalanta

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Raffaele Palladino

29 Carnesecchi

69 Ahanor

19 Djimsiti

42 Scalvini

59 Zalewski

13 Ederson

15 Roon

77 Zappacosta

18 Raspadori

17 Ketelaere

90 Krstovic

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
29	M. Carnesecchi	G
42	G. Scalvini	D
19	B. Djimsiti	D
69	H. Ahanor	D
77	D. Zappacosta	M
15	M. De Roon	M
13	Ederson	M
59	N. Zalewski	M
17	C. De Ketelaere	F
18	G. Raspadori	F
90	N. Krstovic	F

Substitutes

57	M. Sportiello	G
31	F. Rossi	G
23	S. Kolasinac	D
16	R. Bellanova	D
6	Y. Musah	M
7	K. Sulemana	F
45	D. Vavassori	F
40	R. Obric	D
8	M. Pasalic	M
9	G. Scamacca	F
5	M. Bakker	D
10	L. Samardzic	M

Bologna

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

1 Skorupski

33 Miranda

14 Heggem

5 Helland

17 Mario

4 Pobega

8 Freuler

19 Ferguson

11 Rowe

9 Castro

10 Bernardeschi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	L. Skorupski	G
17	Joao Mario	D
5	E. Fauske Helland	D
14	T. Heggem	D
33	J. Miranda	D
19	L. Ferguson	M
8	R. Freuler	M
4	T. Pobega	M
10	F. Bernardeschi	F
9	S. Castro	F
11	J. Rowe	F

Substitutes

13	F. Ravaglia	G
25	M. Pessina	G
29	L. De Silvestri	D
6	N. Moro	M
7	R. Orsolini	F
20	N. Zortea	D
24	T. Dallinga	F
30	B. Dominguez	F
22	C. Lykogiannis	D
21	J. Odgaard	F
23	S. Sohm	M
15	B. Tomasevic	D