ML Vitebsk vs Borac Banja Luka Prognoza

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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ML Vitebsk

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1 : 0

HT 1 - 0

Mecz pierwszej rundy 0-1 · Łącznie 1-1

Borac Banja Luka

Away

Typowanie AI ML Vitebsk lub remis

45%

27%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza ML Vitebsk vs Borac Banja Luka: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej ML Vitebsk na 45%, Borac Banja Luka na 27%, a remisu na 27%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 14 Aug 2026, 03:01.

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Match Report

ML Vitebsk edged past Borac Banja Luka 2–1 in a tense UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round tie that was ultimately decided by a penalty shootout. The Belarusian side went into the break with a narrow advantage after scoring just before half-time in the 45th minute, and despite the visitors levelling in the 103rd minute of extra time, Vitebsk held their nerve when it mattered most.

The match was a fractious affair, with five yellow cards shown across the 90 minutes and two more during extra time, including bookings for D. Hrelja and N. Jakšić late in the second period of additional time. Vitebsk edged the statistical battle, registering seven shots on goal to Borac's four while enjoying a slight majority of possession at 53 percent.

The shootout proved dramatic, with both sides converting and missing penalties before Vitebsk ultimately prevailed to advance. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Vitebsk victory as the most likely outcome at 45 percent, a call that proved correct. The Belarusian club now progress to the next round of European qualification.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

16' ▮

Yellow Card

40' ▮

45+1' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

▮ 64'

V. Rogan Yellow Card

⇄ 66'

A. Roguljić ⇄ A. Hiroš

▮ 70'

A. Hiroš Yellow Card

76' ⇄

⇄ 76'

S. Savić ⇄ D. VukoviÄ

▮ 79'

Yellow Card

79' ⇄

87' ⇄

⇄ 91'

V. Rogan ⇄ N. Jakšić

⇄ 91'

S. Ogrinec

⚽ 1–1 103'

assist: A. Hiroš

106' ⇄

⇄ 111'

D. Hrelja ⇄ Abel Pascual

114' ⇄

▮ 115'

N. Jakšić Yellow Card

▮ 115'

D. Hrelja Yellow Card

Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 120+1'

S. Vranješ Penalty

Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 3–2

⚽ 3–3 120+2'

A. Hiroš Penalty

Missed Penalty

120+3' ✗

⚽ 3–4 120+3'

Penalty

⇄ 120+3'

L. Juričić ⇄ S. Vranješ

Missed Penalty

120+4' ✗

⚽ 3–5 120+4'

Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 4–5

FT 1–0

ML Vitebsk

Match Stats

Borac Banja Luka

53% Ball Possession 47%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

7 Shots on Goal 4

6 Shots off Goal 8

5 Blocked Shots 2

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

4 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 2

25 Fouls 24

2 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

ML Vitebsk lub remis

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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ML Vitebsk

WDDDW

Borac Banja Luka

WWWLW

Last 1 meetings ML Vitebsk · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Borac Banja Luka goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	5	3	1
1	11	13	5	2
2	11	10	5	1
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1

↑ ML Vitebsk goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	4.8%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.6%	12.5%	5.1%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.8%	9.9%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
3	6.4%	5.9%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.9%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	ML Vitebsk	Draw	Borac Banja Luka
ML Vitebsk	31.4%	3.2%	1.0%
Draw	22.8%	16.5%	7.3%
Borac Banja Luka	3.4%	4.4%	10.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: ML Vitebsk vs Borac Banja Luka

0 ML Vitebsk Wins

0 Draws

1 Borac Banja Luka Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Aug 2026	Borac Banja Luka	1 - 0	ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Arsenal	W	5 - 1
13 Sep	A FC Dnepr Mogilev	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Dinamo Minsk	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	H Belshina	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	A Dinamo Brest	W	1 - 3

Borac Banja Luka — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Siroki Brijeg	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Sloga Doboj	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	H Zrinjski	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A FK Sarajevo	L	1 - 0
02 Sep	H Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	W	2 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ML Vitebsk

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Mikhail Martinovich

1 Pavlyuchenko

45 Moskalenchik

6 Gomanov

20 Volkov

23 Balanovich

55 Gromyko

15 Bocherov

27 Mesarović

10 Cleonise

80 Kontsevoy

12 Bosić

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Pavel Pavlyuchenko	G
23	Sergey Balanovich	M
20	Zakhar Volkov	D
6	Kirill Gomanov	D
45	Ilya Moskalenchik	D
27	Aleksandar Mesarović	M
15	Valeriy Bocherov	M
55	Valeriy Gromyko	M
12	Radivoj Bosić	M
80	Artem Kontsevoy	M
10	Denilho Cleonise	M

Substitutes

9	Bassekou Diabaté	F
22	Yan Skibskiy	M
18	Vladislav Zhuk	M
8	Silas Gnaka	M
3	Nikita Baranok	D
30	Pavel Shcherbachenya	G
46	Daniil Kotov	G
7	Timur Ivanov	F
99	Mark Bulanov	F

Borac Banja Luka

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Vinko Marinovic

72 Jurkas

19 Rogan

24 Carolina

2 Meijers

16 Herrera

98 Ogrinec

44 Roguljić

18 Jojić

77 Savić

7 Juričić

11 Hrelja

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
72	Mladen Jurkas	G
16	Sebastian Herrera	D
2	Bart Meijers	D
24	Jurich Carolina	D
19	Viktor Rogan	D
18	Miloš Jojić	M
44	Ante Roguljić	M
98	Sandi Ogrinec	M
11	Damir Hrelja	M
7	Luka Juričić	F
77	Stefan Savić	M

Substitutes

12	Amer Hiroš	M
10	David Vuković	M
30	Nemanja Jakšić	D
89	Matej Deket	F
3	Abel Pascual	D
21	Nikola Ćetković	G
1	Damjan Siskovski	G
6	Siniša Saničanin	D
20	Erik Riđan	D
23	Stojan Vranješ	M
47	Amar Milak	M
14	Pavle Đajić	F
99	Daniel Romera	F