FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik Prognoza

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Post on X

NSI Runavik

Away

Typowanie AI FC Lugano wygrywa

81%

13%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej FC Lugano na 81%, NSI Runavik na 6%, a remisu na 13%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 6 Aug 2026, 20:22.

Match Report

FC Lugano secured a comfortable 2–0 victory over NSI Runavik in the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round, with the Swiss side doing their damage efficiently despite spending much of the match on the back foot. Elias Pihlström broke the deadlock as early as the seventh minute, giving Lugano a lead they would carry into the interval.

The statistics told a striking story of dominance without reward for the Faroese visitors. NSI Runavik controlled 68% of possession, registered 31 total shots and earned 15 corner kicks to Lugano's three, yet managed just a single goal on target throughout the entire contest. Lugano, by contrast, were ruthlessly clinical, converting one of their five attempts. Kevin Behrens wrapped up the result on 80 minutes, effectively ending any prospect of a Runavik comeback.

The outcome aligned with pre-match expectations — our AI model had placed an 81% probability on a Lugano win, a call that proved correct. Lugano now advance to the next round, their defensive resilience and sharp finishing proving decisive against opponents who created volume but lacked the cutting edge to trouble the Swiss defence.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Elias Pihlström assist: Yanis Cimignani

7' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Ahmed Kendouci ⇄ Dereck Moncada

61' ⇄

Daniel Dos Santos ⇄ Anto Grgić

61' ⇄

Yanis Cimignani ⇄ Antonios Papadopoulos

72' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Michał Przybylski ⇄ Tobias Hestad

Kevin Behrens assist: Mattia Zanotti

80' ⚽ 2–0

Elias Pihlström ⇄ Beckham Castro

82' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Marius Lindh ⇄ Markus Danielsen

FT 2–0

FC Lugano

Match Stats

NSI Runavik

68% Ball Possession 32%

Expected Goals (xG)

31 Total Shots 5

9 Shots on Goal 1

13 Shots off Goal 2

9 Blocked Shots 2

22 Shots insidebox 3

9 Shots outsidebox 2

15 Corner Kicks 3

Offsides

16 Fouls 3

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

563 Total passes 270

507 Passes accurate 201

90% Passes % 74%

goals_prevented

FC Lugano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
46 Mattia Zanotti D	9.0	91'	–	1	–	61 (59%)	2
24 Elias Pihlström M	7.9	82'	1	–	1	41 (33%)	1
11 Renato Steffen F	7.7	91'	–	–	3	49 (40%)	–
3 Hannes Delcroix D	7.6	91'	–	–	4	69 (66%)	–
21 Yanis Cimignani M	7.5	72'	–	1	2	39 (37%)	1
14 Ahmed Kendouci M	7.5	61'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	2
8 Anto Grgić M	7.3	30'	–	–	–	36 (34%)	–
25 Uran Bislimi F	7.3	91'	–	–	2	82 (73%)	1
4 Damian Kelvin D	7.2	91'	–	–	1	52 (45%)	–
91 Kevin Behrens F	7.0	91'	1	–	1	14 (12%)	–
27 Daniel Dos Santos M	6.9	61'	–	–	2	26 (23%)	1
16 David von Ballmoos G	6.6	91'	–	–	–	19 (18%)	–
6 Antonios Papadopoulos D	6.6	19'	–	–	1	13 (11%)	–
22 Beckham Castro F	6.5	9'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
30 Dereck Moncada F	6.2	30'	–	–	4	6 (6%)	–

NSI Runavik

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Tom Amos G	9.0	91'	–	–	–	47 (20%)	–
17 Jann Benjaminsen D	7.2	91'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
5 Alex Freyr Elísson D	6.9	91'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	3
3 Viljormur Davidsen D	6.9	91'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	1
6 Beinir Nolsøe M	6.9	91'	–	–	1	20 (16%)	1
4 Daniel Obbekjær D	6.7	91'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	–
29 Emil Joensen M	6.5	91'	–	–	–	32 (26%)	1
33 Michał Przybylski M	6.5	77'	–	–	1	10 (3%)	–
9 Tobias Hestad M	6.5	14'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
12 Filip Drinic D	6.3	91'	–	–	1	31 (29%)	–
11 Marius Lindh M	6.3	85'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	1
2 Sammy Skytte F	6.3	91'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
28 Markus Danielsen F	—	6'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

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Confidence High (81%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

FC Lugano wygrywa

Most likely score

2:0 · 12.1%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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FC Lugano

WWDWW

NSI Runavik

WDWDW

Last 1 meetings FC Lugano · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, FC Lugano faces NSI Runavik. FC Lugano has shown strong form in their domestic league, boasting a solid home record with a high goal-scoring rate, averaging 2.1 goals per match. Conversely, NSI Runavik has struggled in recent European outings, with a defensive record that shows vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match in their last five fixtures. This matchup will heavily rely on Lugano's attacking prowess against Runavik's defensive frailties. Expect Lugano to leverage their offensive capabilities to secure a decisive victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

81%

45%

Draw

13%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

NSI Runavik goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	6	3	2
1	10	10	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	9	7	3	1
4	5	4	2
5	2	2	1

↑ FC Lugano goals · most likely 2–0 (12.1%)

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Players in form

FC Lugano

K. Behrens 6 gls

NSI Runavik

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

43% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	3.1%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	10.1%	10.5%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.1%	10.0%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%
3	8.7%	7.1%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	4.7%	3.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

44%

1.5

56%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

17%

27%

28%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Lugano	Draw	NSI Runavik
FC Lugano	38.1%	2.6%	0.7%
Draw	25.6%	13.4%	4.9%
NSI Runavik	3.9%	3.9%	6.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

65%

2.5

35%

85%

3.5

15%

Home Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

0 FC Lugano Wins

1 Draws

0 NSI Runavik Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Aug 2026	NSI Runavik	2 - 2	FC Lugano

FC Lugano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lausanne	W	0 - 4
16 Sep	H FC ST. Gallen	W	4 - 1
12 Sep	H BSC Young Boys	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A FC Basel 1893	W	1 - 3
03 Sep	H Servette FC	W	1 - 0

NSI Runavik — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A B36 Torshavn	W	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Vikingur Gota	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H AB	W	3 - 1
23 Aug	A KI Klaksvik	D	2 - 2
16 Aug	H EB / Streymur	W	4 - 2

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

NSI Runavik

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Sigurdur Eyjolfsson

13 Amos

17 Benjaminsen

3 Davidsen

4 Obbekjær

12 Drinic

5 Elísson

33 Przybylski

29 Joensen

6 Nolsøe

11 Lindh

2 Skytte

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Tom Amos	G
5	Alex Freyr Elísson	D
12	Filip Drinic	D
4	Daniel Obbekjær	D
3	Viljormur Davidsen	D
17	Jann Benjaminsen	D
11	Marius Lindh	M
6	Beinir Nolsøe	M
29	Emil Joensen	M
33	Michał Przybylski	M
2	Sammy Skytte	F

Substitutes

1	Kristian Joensen	G
30	Dánial Danielsen	G
22	Jóel Tróndargjógv	D
9	Tobias Hestad	M
10	Klæmint Olsen	F
28	Markus Danielsen	F

FC Lugano

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

16 Ballmoos

3 Delcroix

4 Kelvin

46 Zanotti

24 Pihlström

27 Santos

14 Kendouci

21 Cimignani

25 Bislimi

91 Behrens

11 Steffen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	David von Ballmoos	G
46	Mattia Zanotti	D
4	Damian Kelvin	D
3	Hannes Delcroix	D
21	Yanis Cimignani	M
14	Ahmed Kendouci	M
27	Daniel Dos Santos	M
24	Elias Pihlström	M
25	Uran Bislimi	F
11	Renato Steffen	F
91	Kevin Behrens	F

Substitutes

28	Felix Gebhardt	G
39	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G
6	Antonios Papadopoulos	D
17	Lars Lukas Mai	D
18	Joel Bichsel	D
44	Carbone	D
8	Anto Grgić	M
22	Beckham Castro	F
23	Gjan Ajdin	M
30	Dereck Moncada	F
32	Nicolo Puddu	M
33	Christian Raffa	M