FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau Prognoza

Challenge League · Regular Season - 9

Post on X

FC Winterthur

Home

2 : 1

HT 1 - 1

FC Aarau

Away

Typowanie AI FC Winterthur lub remis

45%

26%

29%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej FC Winterthur na 45%, FC Aarau na 29%, a remisu na 26%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 18 Sep 2026, 20:09.

Typy Premium

Premium

1st Half Over 0.5 75%

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Timeline

⇄ 7'

Penalty

15' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 20'

Yellow Card

33' ▮

Tibault Citherlet Yellow Card

38' ▮

⚽ 1–1 40'

Penalty

HT 1–1

▮ 56'

Yellow Card

▮ 56'

Red Card

Alexandre Jankewitz

64' ⇄

Fabian Rohner ⇄ Severin Ottiger

64' ⇄

Severin Ottiger Yellow Card

65' ▮

⇄ 68'

73' ⇄

Remo Arnold

73' ⇄

Theo Golliard

76' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 84'

⇄ Roman Buess

85' ⇄

▮ 90'

Yellow Card

FT 2–1

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Odblokuj pełną analizę AI dla meczu FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau

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Value Edge — model vs rynek
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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

FC Winterthur lub remis

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.4%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

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FC Winterthur

WWWDD

FC Aarau

LDWDW

Live insights

82' time check 80% sure

Min 82: FC Winterthur leads 2-1. Win probability: 92.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 7.7%.

77' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! FC Winterthur win probability: 89.1%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 34.1%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 65.8%. Late goal chance: 38.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 36.7%, Away win 2H: 25.4%.

41' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 36.2%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

29%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Aarau goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	4	4	2	1
1	6	11	7	3	1
2	6	9	7	3	1
3	4	6	4	2	1
4	2	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ FC Winterthur goals · most likely 1–1 (11.4%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

29%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

29%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	4.2%	4.0%	1.9%	0.7%
1	5.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.5%	1.3%
2	6.5%	9.3%	6.7%	3.2%	1.2%
3	4.0%	5.7%	4.1%	2.0%	0.7%
4	1.8%	2.6%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Winterthur	Draw	FC Aarau
FC Winterthur	28.2%	4.7%	2.3%
Draw	15.5%	14.5%	10.7%
FC Aarau	3.0%	4.6%	16.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

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Head to Head: FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

FC Winterthur — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H FC Aarau	W	2 - 1
11 Sep	A Étoile Carouge	W	0 - 1
04 Sep	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	W	4 - 0
01 Sep	A Stade Nyonnais	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	D	1 - 1

FC Aarau — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A FC Winterthur	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H SC Kriens	D	2 - 2
04 Sep	H Rapperswil	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A FC WIL 1900	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	W	2 - 1

Challenge League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	9	6	3	0	17	3	+14	21
2	FC Winterthur	9	5	3	1	19	8	+11	18
3	Yverdon Sport	9	4	4	1	14	9	+5	16
4	SC Kriens	9	4	2	3	16	11	+5	14
5	FC Aarau	9	3	3	3	14	16	-2	12
6	Neuchatel Xamax FC	9	4	0	5	12	17	-5	12
7	Rapperswil	9	3	1	5	15	16	-1	10
8	Étoile Carouge	9	2	3	4	8	12	-4	9
9	FC WIL 1900	9	2	3	4	15	21	-6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	0	2	7	6	23	-17	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.