Estac Troyes vs Marseille Prognoza

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
FT
Post on X
Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Typowanie AI Marseille lub remis
27%
26%
47%
Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Estac Troyes vs Marseille: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Estac Troyes na 27%, Marseille na 47%, a remisu na 26%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 11 Oct 2026, 20:40.

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Match Report

Estac Troyes fell to a 2–0 home defeat against Marseille in Ligue 1's sixth matchday, with the visitors proving clinical despite a goalless first half. Both sides received yellow cards before the break, with Troyes' L. Maronnier cautioned in the 22nd minute and Marseille's Angel Gomes booked on the stroke of half-time.

Marseille broke the deadlock five minutes into the second half through Amine Harit, whose 50th-minute strike proved the decisive turning point. Troyes pushed for a response and were the busier side in terms of attempts, registering 15 total shots to Marseille's five, though the hosts managed only three on target. Marseille's expected goals figure of 0.53 against Troyes' 1.21 underlines how the away side converted their limited opportunities more efficiently. Our pre-match AI model had identified a Marseille win as the most likely outcome at 47%, a call that proved correct.

A late penalty, converted by substitute Himad Abdelli deep into stoppage time, sealed the result and ensured a comfortable margin of victory for Marseille, who collected all three points despite riding their luck for long periods.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

L. Maronnier Yellow Card
22' ▮
▮ 45'
Angel Gomes Yellow Card
HT 0–0
⚽ 0–1 50'
Amine Harit assist: Emerson Palmieri
Karim Dermane Yellow Card
58' ▮
Iron Gomis ⇄ Renaud Ripart
61' ⇄
⇄ 63'
Amine Harit ⇄ Keyliane Abdallah
⇄ 63'
Amine Gouiri ⇄ Neal Maupay
Kandet Diawara ⇄ Hugo Picard
69' ⇄
⇄ 73'
⇄ Tochukwu Nnadi
Jérémy Le Douaron ⇄ Alexandre Phliponeau
77' ⇄
Karim Dermane ⇄ Christ Batola
78' ⇄
Mouhamed Diop ⇄ Timothé Nkada
78' ⇄
⇄ 87'
Angel Gomes ⇄ Geoffrey Kondogbia
⇄ 87'
Igor Paixão ⇄ Faris Moumbagna
Antoine Mille Yellow Card
88' ▮
Patrick Beach Yellow Card
90+6' ▮
⚽ 0–2 90+8'
Himad Abdelli Penalty
FT 0–2
Estac Troyes

Match Stats

Marseille
37% Ball Possession 63%
1.21 Expected Goals (xG) 0.53
15 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 0
4 Blocked Shots 3
13 Shots insidebox 5
2 Shots outsidebox 0
6 Corner Kicks 3
2 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
349 Total passes 640
280 Passes accurate 572
13 Free Kicks 12
Estac Troyes
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
6 Adrien Monfray D 7.1 90' – – 3 61 (56%) –
2 L. Maronnier D 6.9 90' – – – 34 (28%) 1
9 Jérémy Le Douaron F 6.7 77' – – 3 14 (5%) –
20 Renaud Ripart F 6.6 29' – – 3 7 (7%) 1
5 Paolo Gozzi D 6.6 90' – – – 29 (23%) 1
23 Timothé Nkada F 6.5 12' – – 2 4 (2%) –
4 Michel Diaz D 6.4 90' – – – 47 (39%) 1
8 Mouhamed Diop M 6.4 78' – – – 20 (18%) 2
22 Hugo Picard M 6.3 21' – – – 9 (9%) 1
37 Christ Batola F 6.3 12' – – 2 2 –
29 Karim Dermane M 6.2 78' – – 1 31 (26%) 2
7 Kandet Diawara M 6.2 69' – – – 13 (12%) 1
26 Alexandre Phliponeau M 6.1 13' – – – 12 (9%) –
11 Iron Gomis M 5.9 61' – – – 6 (5%) –
17 Antoine Mille M 5.8 90' – – 1 38 (31%) 7
33 Patrick Beach G 5.6 90' – – – 22 (10%) –
Marseille
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
77 Amine Harit M 8.0 63' 1 – 1 33 (28%) 1
33 Emerson Palmieri D 7.8 90' – 1 – 54 (41%) –
8 Himad Abdelli M 7.7 90' 1 – 2 62 (54%) 2
21 Nayef Aguerd D 7.5 90' – – – 99 (93%) 1
74 K. Bezahaf D 7.5 90' – – – 66 (64%) 1
4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D 7.4 90' – – – 122 (117%) –
12 Jeffrey de Lange G 7.4 90' – – – 47 (42%) –
6 Tochukwu Nnadi M 6.9 17' – – – 12 (12%) –
19 Geoffrey Kondogbia M 6.8 3' – – – 3 (3%) –
Seamus Maughan 6.7 73' – – – 53 (47%) 3
14 Igor Paixão M 6.7 87' – – 1 18 (13%) 4
11 Neal Maupay F 6.6 27' – – – 6 (6%) 2
29 Faris Moumbagna F 6.5 3' – – 1 – –
9 Amine Gouiri F 6.4 63' – – – 7 (4%) –
48 Keyliane Abdallah F 6.4 27' – – – 14 (12%) –
7 Angel Gomes M 6.2 87' – – – 44 (36%) –
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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza
Marseille lub remis
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Estac Troyes
LWDLL
Marseille
WWWLW
Last 3 meetings Estac Troyes · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Estac Troyes will face Marseille in a Ligue 1 clash on October 10, 2026. Troyes has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, which could be exploited by Marseille's potent attack, averaging 2.1 goals per game. Conversely, Troyes' home form has been inconsistent, with only 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Marseille's away performance shows resilience, with a solid record of 3 wins in their last 5 away fixtures. This match could hinge on Troyes' ability to tighten their defense against a dynamic Marseille side.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
27%
10%
Draw
26%
45%
Away
47%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Estac Troyes

No scorer data.

Marseille
A. Gouiri 6 gls

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Head to Head: Estac Troyes vs Marseille

0 Estac Troyes Wins
1 Draws
2 Marseille Wins
Date Home Score Away
16 Apr 2023 Marseille 3 - 1 Estac Troyes
11 Jan 2023 Estac Troyes 0 - 2 Marseille
27 Feb 2022 Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Marseille
Zobacz wszystkie 10 spotkania — Premium

Estac Troyes — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov A Paris Saint Germain L 1 - 0
31 Oct H Le Mans W 2 - 0
25 Oct A Toulouse D 0 - 0
17 Oct H Lens L 1 - 3
11 Oct H Marseille L 0 - 2

Marseille — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Nov A Bayer Leverkusen W 0 - 1
01 Nov H Toulouse W 2 - 0
25 Oct H Le Havre W 4 - 3
22 Oct A Sturm Graz L 1 - 0
18 Oct A Angers W 2 - 5

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
10 7 2 1 +12 23
2
Paris FC
10 6 2 2 +7 20
3
Lille
9 5 3 1 +6 18
4
Lyon
9 5 2 2 +8 17
5
Rennes
9 5 1 3 +1 16
6
Marseille
9 5 0 4 +7 15
7
Monaco
9 4 3 2 +2 15
8
Nice
9 4 2 3 +1 14
9
Lens
9 4 1 4 +3 13
10
Toulouse
10 3 4 3 +1 13
11
Stade Brestois 29
9 3 3 3 +4 12
12
Lorient
9 3 3 3 -1 12
13
Strasbourg
10 3 1 6 -4 10
14
Auxerre
10 3 1 6 -11 10
15
Angers
9 2 2 5 -8 8
16
Estac Troyes
10 2 2 6 -10 8
17
Le Mans
9 1 4 4 -7 7
18
Le Havre
9 0 2 7 -11 2

Estac Troyes

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: S. Dumont
33 Beach
5 Gozzi
4 Diaz
6 Monfray
2 Maronnier
29 Karim
8 Diop
7 Diawara
11 Gomis
17 Mille
9 Douaron

Starting XI

# Player Pos
33 P. Beach G
2 L. Maronnier D
6 A. Monfray D
4 M. Diaz D
5 P. Gozzi D
8 M. Diop M
29 D. Karim M
17 A. Mille M
11 I. Gomis M
7 K. Diawara M
9 J. Le Douaron F

Substitutes

10 M. Ifnaoui M
31 Noah Donkor D
37 C. Batola F
40 H. Konaté G
23 T. Nkada F
26 A. Phliponeau M
22 H. Picard M
20 R. Ripart F
34 Lassana Simakha D

Marseille

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Bruno Genesio
12 Lange
33 Emerson
21 Aguerd
4 Egan-Riley
74 Bezahaf
42 Kamissoko
8 Abdelli
14 Paixão
7 Gomes
77 Harit
9 Gouiri

Starting XI

# Player Pos
12 J. de Lange G
74 K. Bezahaf D
4 C. Egan-Riley D
21 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
8 H. Abdelli M
42 Nouhoum Kamissoko M
77 A. Harit M
7 A. Gomes M
14 Igor Paixão M
9 A. Gouiri F

Substitutes

92 T. Vermot G
25 U. Garcia D
48 K. Abdallah F
19 G. Kondogbia M
18 B. Meité D
46 E. Mbondo D
11 N. Maupay F
6 T. Nnadi M
29 F. Moumbagna F

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