Lens vs Auxerre Prognoza

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1
FT
Post on X
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Lens
58%
25%
17%
Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Lens vs Auxerre: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Lens na 58%, Auxerre na 17%, a remisu na 25%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 22 Aug 2026, 17:16.

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Match Report

Lens ran out convincing 5–2 winners over Auxerre in this Ligue 1 opener, with the match's decisive moment arriving as early as the 35th minute when Auxerre's Christ Makosso was shown a red card. Florian Thauvin had already given the hosts the lead from the penalty spot in the 12th minute, and the numerical advantage allowed Lens to take full control after the break.

The second half turned into a rout. Franjo Ivanović and Saud Abdulhamid extended the lead within ten minutes of the restart, before Danny Namaso added a third from the spot on 61 minutes. Auxerre pulled two back through Ismaelo Ganiou and Lamine Sy in quick succession around the hour mark, briefly threatening a nervy finish, but Thauvin's second penalty late on in the 88th minute sealed the emphatic scoreline. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lens win as the most likely outcome at 58%, a call that proved correct.

Despite the scoreline, the underlying numbers told an interesting story — Auxerre's expected goals figure of 1.92 significantly outpaced Lens's 0.17, highlighting just how much the red card and penalty decisions shaped the final result.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Florian Thauvin Penalty
12' ⚽ 1–0
▮ 35'
Christ Makosso Red Card
HT 1–0
Franjo Ivanović assist: Abdallah Sima
49' ⚽ 2–0
Saud Abdulhamid assist: Florian Thauvin
54' ⚽ 3–0
⚽ 3–1 61'
Danny Namaso Penalty
Saud Abdulhamid ⇄ Michał Skóraś
62' ⇄
Franjo Ivanović ⇄ Thorgan Hazard
62' ⇄
Ismaelo Ganiou assist: Michał Skóraś
66' ⚽ 4–1
⇄ 67'
Romain Faivre ⇄ Lamfia Dioubaté
⇄ 67'
Aristide Zossou
⚽ 4–2 69'
Lamine Sy
Abdallah Sima ⇄ Odsonne Édouard
71' ⇄
Michaël Cuisance ⇄ Amadou Haidara
71' ⇄
⇄ 77'
Naouirou Ahamada ⇄ Elikya Legros
⇄ 77'
Danny Namaso ⇄ Lasso Coulibaly
Ismaelo Ganiou ⇄ Andrija Bulatovic
79' ⇄
Maik Nawrocki Yellow Card
84' ▮
▮ 86'
Lamfia Dioubaté Yellow Card
⇄ 87'
Arthur Piedfort ⇄ Josué Casimir
Florian Thauvin Penalty
88' ⚽ 5–2
FT 5–2
Lens

Match Stats

Auxerre
43% Ball Possession 57%
1.92 Expected Goals (xG) 0.17
6 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Goal 1
1 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 2
1 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Corner Kicks 6
0 Offsides 3
3 Fouls 9
Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
219 Total passes 287
186 Passes accurate 237
85% Passes % 83%
-0.54 goals_prevented -0.54
Lens
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
29 Franjo Ivanović F 8.2 52' 1 – 2 12 (8%) 2
25 Ismaelo Ganiou D 7.5 52' – – – 23 (20%) –
31 Souleymane Sagnan D 7.2 52' – – – 21 (20%) 4
40 Robin Risser G 6.9 52' – – – 19 (17%) –
14 Matthieu Udol M 6.9 52' – – – 15 (14%) 2
10 Florian Thauvin F 6.9 52' 1 – 2 14 (11%) –
19 Abdallah Sima F 6.9 52' – 1 – 18 (10%) –
23 Saud Abdulhamid M 6.7 52' – – – 16 (15%) 1
8 Yassine Titraoui M 6.6 52' – – – 34 (31%) –
27 Michaël Cuisance M 6.6 52' – – 1 23 (20%) 4
3 Maik Nawrocki D 6.3 52' – – – 24 (20%) –
Auxerre
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
5 Kévin Danois M 6.7 52' – – 2 40 (33%) 1
8 Naouirou Ahamada M 6.7 52' – – – 33 (28%) –
92 Clement Akpa D 6.7 52' – – – 36 (31%) 2
77 Aristide Zossou F 6.7 52' – – – 23 (19%) –
20 Sinaly Diomandé D 6.5 52' – – 1 22 (19%) 1
23 Mamadou Diop G 6.5 52' – – – 17 (10%) –
46 Arthur Piedfort M 6.5 52' – – – 29 (27%) 2
10 Danny Namaso F 6.3 52' – – – 15 (13%) 2
21 Romain Faivre F 5.9 52' – – – 25 (19%) –
27 Lamine Sy D 5.3 52' – – – 23 (16%) 1
15 Christ Makosso D 5.2 35' – – – 24 (22%) 1
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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza
Trudna wygrana lub remis Lens
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Lens
LDWLL
Auxerre
WWLLL
Last 3 meetings Lens · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Lens faces Auxerre in this Ligue 1 matchup, with Lens currently in a stronger position based on recent form and squad depth. Statistically, Lens has averaged 1.8 goals per match over the last five games, while Auxerre has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals. Additionally, Lens will look to capitalize on their attacking prowess, featuring key players who have consistently contributed to their goal tally. Auxerre will need to tighten their defense and find a way to exploit any gaps left by Lens to secure points in this encounter.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
58%
45%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
17%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Lens
F. Thauvin 3 gls
F. Ivanović 2 gls
Auxerre
C. Archer 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lens vs Auxerre

2 Lens Wins
0 Draws
1 Auxerre Wins
Date Home Score Away
17 Jan 2026 Lens 1 - 0 Auxerre
04 Oct 2025 Auxerre 1 - 2 Lens
27 Apr 2025 Lens 0 - 4 Auxerre
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Lens — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Sep A Monaco L 2 - 1
13 Sep A Le Mans D 2 - 2
10 Sep A Slavia Praha W 2 - 3
05 Sep H Lorient L 0 - 1
29 Aug A Strasbourg L 2 - 1

Auxerre — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep H Stade Brestois 29 W 2 - 1
12 Sep H Nice W 1 - 0
04 Sep A Lyon L 3 - 1
29 Aug H Angers L 1 - 3
22 Aug A Lens L 5 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Auxerre

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Christophe Pelissier
23 Diop
92 Akpa
15 Makosso
20 Diomandé
27 Sy
5 Danois
46 Piedfort
8 Ahamada
77 Zossou
10 Namaso
21 Faivre

Starting XI

# Player Pos
23 Mamadou Diop G
27 Lamine Sy D
20 Sinaly Diomandé D
15 Christ Makosso D
92 Clement Akpa D
8 Naouirou Ahamada M
46 Arthur Piedfort M
5 Kévin Danois M
21 Romain Faivre F
10 Danny Namaso F
77 Aristide Zossou F

Substitutes

1 Paul Nardi G
22 Fredrik Oppegård D
35 Elikya Legros D
45 Salimou Danfakha D
18 Lasso Coulibaly M
7 Josué Casimir F
32 Rayan Mandengue D
36 Tidiane Devernois M
34 Lamfia Dioubaté M

Lens

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: D. Toppmöller
40 Risser
31 Sagnan
25 Ganiou
3 Nawrocki
14 Udol
8 Titraoui
27 Cuisance
23 Abdulhamid
29 Ivanović
10 Thauvin
19 Sima

Starting XI

# Player Pos
40 Robin Risser G
3 Maik Nawrocki D
25 Ismaelo Ganiou D
31 Souleymane Sagnan D
23 Saud Abdulhamid M
27 Michaël Cuisance M
8 Yassine Titraoui M
14 Matthieu Udol M
10 Florian Thauvin F
29 Franjo Ivanović F
19 Abdallah Sima F

Substitutes

16 Mathieu Gorgelin G
38 Mezian Mesloub M
5 Andrija Bulatović M
22 Michał Skóraś F
21 Amadou Haidara M
9 Thorgan Hazard M
18 Rayan Fofana F
7 Florian Sotoca F
11 Odsonne Édouard F

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