Osasuna vs Athletic Club Prognoza

La Liga · Regular Season - 12

Post on X

Athletic Club

Away

Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Typowanie AI Athletic Club lub remis

25%

30%

45%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Osasuna vs Athletic Club: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Osasuna na 25%, Athletic Club na 45%, a remisu na 30%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 7 Nov 2026, 19:26.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Ponad 1,5 gola 73%

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Match Report

Osasuna and Athletic Club played out a goalless first half at El Sadar, with the home side enjoying the better of possession and territory but neither team able to find a breakthrough before the interval. A yellow card for Jon Moncayola just before half-time added some late drama to an otherwise tight opening 45 minutes.

The second half remained cagey until the closing stages, when Athletic Club broke the deadlock through Nico Williams in the 84th minute, seemingly set to claim all three points. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Athletic Club win as the most likely outcome at 45%, and that looked to be the correct call. However, Osasuna refused to accept defeat, and substitute Alejandro Catena levelled in the 90th minute to snatch a share of the spoils for the hosts.

Despite Osasuna's dominance in possession at 60% and a significantly higher expected goals figure of 2.12 compared to Athletic Club's 0.72, it was the Basque visitors who struck first. A frantic finale, capped by late yellow cards for Yuri Berchiche and Iker Muñoz, ensured both sides left with one point apiece.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Jon Moncayola Yellow Card

45+2' ▮

HT 0–0

Ante Budimir Yellow Card

54' ▮

⇄ 65'

Robert Navarro ⇄ Oihan Sancet

⇄ 65'

Beñat Gerenabarrena ⇄ Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

Jon Moncayola ⇄ Asier Osambela

68' ⇄

Raúl Moro ⇄ Jonathan Dubasin

68' ⇄

Moi Gómez ⇄ Iker Muñoz

74' ⇄

Ante Budimir ⇄ Raúl García de Haro

80' ⇄

Rubén García ⇄ Kike Barja

80' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 84'

Nico Williams

⇄ 86'

Peio Canales ⇄ Beñat Prados

⇄ 86'

Nico Williams ⇄ Johaneko Louis Jean

Alejandro Catena

90' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 90'

Álex Berenguer ⇄ Yeray Álvarez

▮ 90+3'

Yuri Berchiche Yellow Card

Iker Muñoz Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

FT 1–1

Osasuna

Match Stats

Athletic Club

40% Ball Possession 60%

0.72 Expected Goals (xG) 2.12

17 Total Shots 14

5 Shots on Goal 4

8 Shots off Goal 6

4 Blocked Shots 4

7 Shots insidebox 9

10 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 1

19 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

336 Total passes 542

251 Passes accurate 474

10 Free Kicks 19

Osasuna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Alejandro Catena D	7.8	90'	1	–	2	34 (26%)	4
19 Valentin Rosier D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	21 (18%)	4
23 Abel Bretones D	7.1	90'	–	–	1	41 (31%)	4
22 Flavien Boyomo D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	2
6 Lucas Torró M	7.0	90'	–	–	5	43 (33%)	2
9 Raúl García de Haro F	6.9	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
14 Rubén García F	6.7	80'	–	–	3	34 (23%)	2
11 Kike Barja F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
13 Aitor Fernández G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	24 (17%)	–
21 Jonathan Dubasin F	6.5	22'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	–
8 Iker Muñoz M	6.4	16'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	–
16 Moi Gómez M	6.4	74'	–	–	1	44 (33%)	–
18 Raúl Moro F	6.3	68'	–	–	1	12 (10%)	1
17 Ante Budimir F	6.2	80'	–	–	1	8 (5%)	–
29 Asier Osambela M	6.1	22'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
7 Jon Moncayola M	6.0	68'	–	–	1	25 (17%)	–

Athletic Club

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Nico Williams M	7.9	86'	1	–	3	33 (26%)	–
1 Unai Simón G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	43 (35%)	–
14 Aymeric Laporte D	7.4	90'	–	–	1	89 (80%)	1
3 Daniel Vivian D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	83 (80%)	1
23 Robert Navarro M	6.9	65'	–	–	1	26 (24%)	1
15 Hugo Rincón D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	–
17 Yuri Berchiche D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	62 (59%)	2
28 Peio Canales M	6.7	86'	–	–	–	54 (46%)	2
24 Beñat Gerenabarrena M	6.6	65'	–	–	–	45 (40%)	2
31 Johaneko Louis Jean D	6.6	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M	6.5	25'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	1
6 Beñat Prados M	6.5	4'	–	–	1	–	1
9 Iñaki Williams F	6.4	90'	–	–	1	16 (8%)	–
8 Oihan Sancet M	6.4	25'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
7 Álex Berenguer M	6.3	90'	–	–	3	34 (25%)	1

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Athletic Club lub remis

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Osasuna

DLWLW

Athletic Club

DWWWL

Last 3 meetings Osasuna · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In their upcoming La Liga clash, Osasuna will face Athletic Club. Historically, Osasuna has shown strength at home, with a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per game this season. Conversely, Athletic Club boasts a robust midfield, averaging 60% possession in recent fixtures, which could challenge Osasuna's defensive structure. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both teams having a balanced head-to-head record in the last five encounters. Key players to watch include Osasuna's leading scorer and Athletic's playmaker, both of whom will be crucial in determining the outcome.

Live insights

90' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 90.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

85' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 0-1! Athletic Club win probability: 94.9%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 12.9%.

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Still level at 0-0. Draw looking likely at 83.3%. Late goal chance: 17.5%.

78' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 0-1! Athletic Club win probability: 89.5%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 28%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 0-0. Draw looking likely at 69.5%. Late goal chance: 33.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

25%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Osasuna

A. Budimir 8 gls

Athletic Club

Álex Berenguer 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Osasuna vs Athletic Club

0 Osasuna Wins

2 Draws

1 Athletic Club Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Apr 2026	Athletic Club	1 - 0	Osasuna
03 Jan 2026	Osasuna	1 - 1	Athletic Club
30 Mar 2025	Athletic Club	0 - 0	Osasuna

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Osasuna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Athletic Club	D	1 - 1
02 Nov	A Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 1
29 Oct	A Atletico Calatayud	W	0 - 6
26 Oct	A Sevilla	L	2 - 0
18 Oct	H Racing Santander	W	2 - 0

Athletic Club — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
01 Nov	H Real Sociedad	W	2 - 1
29 Oct	A Prat	W	1 - 6
25 Oct	H Getafe	W	4 - 0
21 Oct	A Levante	L	3 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	+34	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	+14	28
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	+3	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	0	19
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	15	11	+4	16
8	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	+1	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	-13	14
10	Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	-2	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	0	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	0	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	-5	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	-8	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	-11	12
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	-4	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	-5	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	-14	5

Athletic Club

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: E. Terzić

1 Simón

17 Yuri

14 Laporte

3 Vivian

15 Rincón

24 Gerenabarrena

28 Canales

10 Williams

23 Navarro

7 Berenguer

9 Williams

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Unai Simón	G
15	Hugo Rincón	D
3	Dani Vivian	D
14	Aymeric Laporte	D
17	Yuri	D
28	Peio Canales	M
24	Beñat Gerenabarrena	M
7	Álex Berenguer	M
23	Robert Navarro	M
10	Nico Williams	M
9	I. Williams	F

Substitutes

12	Jesús Areso	D
34	Jesús Vizcay Hurtado	F
8	Oihan Sancet	M
16	Ruíz de Galarreta	M
20	Alejandro Rego	M
6	Beñat Prados	M
13	Álex Padilla	G
31	J. Louis-Jean	D
18	Mikel Jauregizar	M
25	Álvaro Djaló	F
5	Yeray	D
33	Christian Imga	F

Osasuna

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Arrasate

13 Fernández

23 Bretones

24 Catena

22 Boyomo

19 Rosier

16 Gómez

6 Torró

7 Moncayola

18 Moro

17 Budimir

14 García

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Aitor Fernández	G
19	V. Rosier	D
22	F. Boyomo	D
24	Catena	D
23	Abel Bretones	D
7	Moncayola	M
6	Lucas Torró	M
16	Moi Gómez	M
14	Rubén García	F
17	A. Budimir	F
18	Raul Moro	F

Substitutes

11	Kike Barja	F
27	Íñigo Arguibide	D
21	Jonathan Dubasin	F
26	Mauro Echegoyen	M
9	Raúl García	F
1	Sergio Herrera	G
8	Iker Muñoz	M
29	Asier Osambela	M
31	Rafa Fernández	G
15	Diego Rico	D
35	U. Santos	D
48	R. Yeboah	D