AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid Предвидување
Прогноза за AEK Athens FC против Real Madrid: Sportiko проценува дека AEK Athens FC има 12% шанса за победа, Real Madrid 71%, а реми 17%. Последно ажурирано 4 Nov 2026, 19:40.
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Premium- 1st Half Over 0.5 75%
- Under 4.5 73%
Match Report
AEK Athens took a surprise lead at the Olimpico Stadium when Aboubakary Koita struck in the 12th minute, but Real Madrid levelled before half-time through Jude Bellingham's 32nd-minute effort to make it 1–1 at the break. Despite AEK dominating possession at 70% and generating 24 total shots, their expected goals figure of 3.41 reflected a largely inefficient attacking display against the Spanish giants.
The second half saw AEK restore their lead through Stavros Pilios in the 75th minute, threatening an upset. Real Madrid responded swiftly, however, with Kylian Mbappé equalising just three minutes later. Federico Valverde then sealed the victory with a 90+2' winner, completing a dramatic turnaround for Carlo Ancelotti's side, who managed the result despite recording only nine total shots and an xG of just 0.95.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 71%, a call that proved accurate. The result keeps Madrid firmly in contention in the Champions League league stage, while AEK will feel the sting of conceding so late despite their territorial dominance throughout.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
AEK Athens FC
Match Stats
AEK Athens FC
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aboubakary Koita M | 8.0 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 (17%) | 4 |
| 3 Stavros Pilios D | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 24 (21%) | – |
| 9 Luka Jović F | 7.2 | 88' | – | 1 | 1 | 17 (16%) | – |
| 91 Alberto Brignoli G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (21%) | – |
| 14 Lovro Majer M | 6.8 | 53' | – | – | – | 12 (11%) | 3 |
| 90 Zini F | 6.7 | 37' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | 4 |
| 8 Mijat Gaćinović F | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 14 (10%) | 1 |
| 44 Filipe Relvas D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (29%) | – |
| 16 Kervin Arriaga M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (29%) | – |
| 2 Harold Moukoudi D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (28%) | 1 |
| 19 Barnabás Varga F | 6.4 | 30' | – | – | – | 12 (7%) | – |
| 18 Răzvan Marin M | 5.9 | 30' | – | – | 2 | 9 (8%) | – |
| 10 Oleksandr Zubkov M | 5.8 | 2' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 6 Kaan Kairinen M | 5.8 | 60' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | – |
| 12 Lazaros Rota D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (16%) | 3 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Kylian Mbappé F | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 7 | 35 (28%) | – |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 8.2 | 86' | 1 | – | 3 | 61 (57%) | 2 |
| 8 Federico Valverde M | 7.9 | 23' | 1 | – | 1 | 30 (26%) | – |
| 17 Marc Cucurella D | 7.3 | 81' | – | 1 | 2 | 80 (75%) | 4 |
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 57 (53%) | 9 |
| 9 Endrick F | 6.9 | 23' | – | – | 2 | 10 (6%) | – |
| 24 D. Dumfries D | 6.9 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 46 (44%) | – |
| 3 Éder Militão D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 65 (61%) | 3 |
| 20 Bernardo Silva M | 6.7 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 56 (54%) | 1 |
| 22 Antonio Rüdiger D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (75%) | 1 |
| 19 Carlos Espí F | 6.5 | 4' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 7 Vinícius Júnior M | 6.4 | 81' | – | – | 3 | 31 (26%) | – |
| 25 Yan Diomande M | 6.4 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 38 (34%) | 2 |
| 21 Brahim Díaz M | 6.2 | 9' | – | 1 | 1 | 10 (10%) | – |
| 1 Thibaut Courtois G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (18%) | – |
| 18 Álvaro Carreras D | 6.0 | 9' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowLive insights
Late goal makes it 2-3! Real Madrid win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.
Min 83: Still level at 2-2. Draw looking likely at 77.7%. Late goal chance: 23.9%.
Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 66.7%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.
Goal! Score now 2-1. AEK Athens FC win: 77.3%. BTTS: 100%.
Min 75: AEK Athens FC leads 2-1. Win probability: 77.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 22.7%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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No scorer data.
Kylian Mbappé
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
AEK Athens FC — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov | H Real Madrid | L | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Panathinaikos | L | 2 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | A PAOK | L | 3 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | H Panetolikos | W | 5 - 0 |
| 20 Oct | A Manchester City | L | 5 - 1 |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Valencia | W | 0 - 3 |
| 04 Nov | A AEK Athens FC | W | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Racing Santander | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | A Barcelona | W | 1 - 2 |
| 21 Oct | H RB Leipzig | W | 4 - 1 |
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |
Como
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |
Barcelona
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |
Manchester City
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |
Club Brugge KV
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |
Sporting CP
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |
Inter
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |
Lask Linz
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Manchester United
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |
Galatasaray
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Fenerbahçe
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |
AS Roma
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |
Viking
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |
Atletico Madrid
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |
FC Porto
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |
Villarreal
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |
AEK Athens FC
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |
Sabah FA
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |
Feyenoord
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |
Lens
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |
Slavia Praha
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lille
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -16 | 0 |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: José Mourinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Courtois | G |
| 24 | D. Dumfries | D |
| 3 | Éder Militão | D |
| 22 | A. Rüdiger | D |
| 17 | Marc Cucurella | D |
| 20 | Bernardo Silva | M |
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 25 | Y. Diomande | M |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 7 | Vinícius Júnior | M |
| 10 | Kylian Mbappé | F |
Substitutes
| 18 | Álvaro Fernández | D |
| 9 | Endrick | F |
| 19 | Carlos Espí | F |
| 4 | D. Huijsen | D |
| 16 | I. Konaté | D |
| 13 | A. Lunin | G |
| 38 | Sergio Martínez | M |
| 26 | Sergio Mestre | G |
| 27 | Thiago Pitarch | M |
| 8 | F. Valverde | M |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 21 | Brahim Díaz | M |
AEK Athens FC
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: M. Nikolić
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | A. Brignoli | G |
| 12 | L. Rota | D |
| 2 | H. Moukoudi | D |
| 44 | Filipe Relvas | D |
| 3 | S. Pilios | D |
| 11 | A. Koita | M |
| 16 | K. Arriaga | M |
| 6 | K. Kairinen | M |
| 14 | L. Majer | M |
| 9 | L. Jović | F |
| 8 | M. Gaćinović | F |
Substitutes
| 41 | Marios Balamotis | G |
| 22 | C. Lykogiannis | D |
| 20 | P. Mantalos | M |
| 18 | R. Marin | M |
| 1 | T. Strakosha | G |
| 19 | B. Varga | F |
| 21 | D. Vida | D |
| 27 | M. Vitális | M |
| 90 | Zini | F |
| 10 | O. Zubkov | M |