Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction

Bundesliga Bundesliga · Championship Group - 24
FT
Post on X
Merkur Arena, Graz
AI call Difficult Sturm Graz win or draw
60%
25%
15%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 60% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg 15% and the draw 25%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:15.

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean
Difficult Sturm Graz win or draw
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Sturm Graz
LDWWW
Red Bull Salzburg
WWWLW
Last 3 meetings Sturm Graz · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Sturm Graz will face Red Bull Salzburg in a crucial Bundesliga clash on March 20, 2026. Historically, Salzburg has dominated this fixture, boasting a win rate of over 70% in recent meetings. Sturm Graz, however, has shown significant improvement this season, currently sitting in a competitive mid-table position. Their home advantage at Merkur Arena could play a pivotal role, as they have secured 60% of their points at home this season. Expect a high-intensity match, with Salzburg aiming to maintain their title challenge while Sturm looks to disrupt their momentum.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
60%
45%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
15%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Sturm Graz
O. Kiteishvili 15 gls
Red Bull Salzburg
Kerim-Sam Alajbegović 9 gls
P. Ratkov 9 gls
Y. Vertessen 8 gls
K. Konaté 7 gls

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Head to Head: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg

2 Sturm Graz Wins
1 Draws
0 Red Bull Salzburg Wins
Date Home Score Away
09 Nov 2025 Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg
20 Sep 2025 Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 2 Sturm Graz
09 May 2025 Sturm Graz 4 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg
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Sturm Graz — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Aug A Fenerbahçe L 2 - 0
01 Aug A WSG Wattens D 1 - 1
28 Jul A Heart Of Midlothian W 0 - 2
24 Jul A Seekirchen W 0 - 3
21 Jul H Heart Of Midlothian W 4 - 0

Red Bull Salzburg — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
06 Aug H Pafos W 1 - 0
01 Aug H TSV Hartberg W 1 - 0
25 Jul A Oberwart W 1 - 7
15 Jul H Başakşehir L 1 - 2
04 Jul H Gornik Zabrze W 2 - 1

Bundesliga Standings

Bundesliga: Championship Group

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Lask Linz
32 17 7 8 +14 39
2
Sturm Graz
32 16 8 8 +16 37
3
Red Bull Salzburg
32 13 9 10 +15 29
4
Austria Vienna
32 14 5 13 -5 29
5
Rapid Vienna
32 12 8 12 -5 27
6
TSV Hartberg
32 10 12 10 0 25

Bundesliga: Relegation Group

# Team P W D L GD Pts
7
Ried
32 12 6 14 -4 28
8
Wolfsberger AC
32 11 8 13 -1 28
9
Grazer AK
32 9 10 13 -3 27
10
SCR Altach
32 10 12 10 -3 27
11
WSG Wattens
32 10 10 12 -12 24
12
FC BW Linz
32 8 5 19 -12 21

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.

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