Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Chelsea

Away

Stadium of Light, Sunderland

AI call Sunderland or draw

39%

27%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction: Sportiko gives Sunderland a 39% chance of winning, Chelsea 33% and the draw 27%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Sunderland claimed a memorable 2–1 victory over Chelsea at the Stadium of Light, with Trai Hume opening the scoring on 25 minutes to give the home side a deserved lead at the break. Despite Chelsea's statistical dominance — 21 total shots and an expected goals figure of 1.84 compared to Sunderland's 0.89 — the hosts remained resolute and were handed a fortunate second goal when Malo Gusto turned the ball into his own net just five minutes into the second half.

Chelsea responded almost immediately through Cole Palmer on 56 minutes, but their hopes of a comeback were severely damaged when Wesley Fofana received a second yellow card on 62 minutes, leaving the visitors to play out the remainder of the match with ten men. The dismissal proved decisive, as Sunderland successfully protected their lead despite Chelsea pressing with six corner kicks and sustained possession in the closing stages.

It was a disciplinary afternoon all round, with eight yellow cards distributed across both sides. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Sunderland win as the most likely outcome at 39%, a call that proved correct against a Chelsea side who ultimately could not convert their chances.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Trai Hume assist: Luke O'Nien

25' ⚽ 1–0

Nilson Angulo Yellow Card

42' ▮

HT 1–0

Malo Gusto Own Goal

50' ⚽ 2–0

L. Geertruida Yellow Card

51' ▮

⇄ 53'

J. Hato ⇄ Reece James

▮ 54'

Wesley Fofana Yellow Card

⚽ 2–1 56'

Cole Palmer assist: Pedro Neto

Nilson Angulo ⇄ Habib Diarra

61' ⇄

B. Brobbey ⇄ Wilson Isidor

61' ⇄

▮ 62'

Wesley Fofana Yellow Card

▮ 62'

Wesley Fofana Red Card

⇄ 65'

Pedro Neto ⇄ Trevoh Chalobah

▮ 69'

Enzo Fernández Yellow Card

Granit Xhaka Yellow Card

73' ▮

Habib Diarra Yellow Card

81' ▮

⇄ 85'

Moisés Caicedo ⇄ Liam Delap

⇄ 85'

Malo Gusto ⇄ Josh Acheampong

Noah Sadiki Yellow Card

89' ▮

▮ 90+7'

João Pedro Yellow Card

Enzo Le Fée ⇄ Chris Rigg

90+8' ⇄

▮ 90+11'

Cole Palmer Yellow Card

FT 2–1

Sunderland

Match Stats

Chelsea

44% Ball Possession 56%

1.84 Expected Goals (xG) 0.89

21 Total Shots 8

6 Shots on Goal 3

8 Shots off Goal 3

7 Blocked Shots 2

16 Shots insidebox 4

5 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 1

15 Fouls 12

5 Yellow Cards 5

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

346 Total passes 452

285 Passes accurate 376

82% Passes % 83%

-0.73 goals_prevented -0.73

Sunderland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
32 Trai Hume M	8.2	90'	1	–	2	23 (19%)	3
34 Granit Xhaka M	7.9	90'	–	–	–	52 (45%)	–
28 Enzo Le Fée M	7.9	89'	–	–	2	40 (32%)	4
27 Noah Sadiki M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	–
20 Nordi Mukiele D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	39 (29%)	2
18 Wilson Isidor F	6.7	29'	–	–	1	5 (4%)	1
19 Habib Diarra M	6.7	29'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	–
13 Luke O'Nien D	6.7	90'	–	1	1	33 (31%)	1
9 B. Brobbey F	6.5	61'	–	–	3	9 (8%)	–
6 L. Geertruida D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	29 (28%)	1
17 Reinildo Mandava D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	4
10 Nilson Angulo M	6.3	61'	–	–	3	13 (10%)	2
22 R. Roefs G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	28 (17%)	–
11 Chris Rigg M	—	1'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Chelsea

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Cole Palmer F	7.6	90'	1	–	3	33 (30%)	–
23 Trevoh Chalobah D	7.3	25'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	–
7 Pedro Neto F	7.2	65'	–	1	–	21 (20%)	–
6 Levi Colwill D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	65 (59%)	1
25 Moisés Caicedo M	6.9	85'	–	–	–	57 (50%)	–
24 Reece James D	6.9	38'	–	–	1	24 (22%)	–
20 João Pedro F	6.9	90'	–	–	2	16 (7%)	1
27 Malo Gusto M	6.7	85'	–	–	–	40 (33%)	2
34 Josh Acheampong D	6.7	18'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
1 Robert Sánchez G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	37 (24%)	–
3 Marc Cucurella M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	2
8 Enzo Fernández M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	55 (41%)	1
9 Liam Delap F	6.2	18'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
21 J. Hato D	5.9	52'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
29 Wesley Fofana D	5.2	62'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Sunderland or draw

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Sunderland

WLLWW

Chelsea

LLWDL

Last 3 meetings Sunderland · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In this Premier League clash, Sunderland hosts Chelsea on May 24, 2026. Chelsea, known for their attacking prowess, currently boasts a strong away record, while Sunderland has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game this season. Historically, Chelsea has dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings. Sunderland will need to capitalize on set-pieces and exploit any defensive lapses in Chelsea's backline if they hope to secure points. Expect Chelsea to control possession and create numerous scoring opportunities, making them favorites to win this encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Chelsea goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	10	6	2	1
1	11	13	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Sunderland goals · most likely 1–1 (12.9%)

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Head to Head: Sunderland vs Chelsea

1 Sunderland Wins

0 Draws

2 Chelsea Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Oct 2025	Chelsea	1 - 2	Sunderland
21 May 2017	Chelsea	5 - 1	Sunderland
14 Dec 2016	Sunderland	0 - 1	Chelsea

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Sunderland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Wrexham	W	0 - 1
30 Jul	H Leeds	L	0 - 1
25 Jul	A Liverpool	L	4 - 2
24 May	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1
17 May	A Everton	W	1 - 3

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Tottenham	L	1 - 2
24 May	A Sunderland	L	2 - 1
19 May	H Tottenham	W	2 - 1
09 May	A Liverpool	D	1 - 1
04 May	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 3

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0