Brighton vs Manchester United Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Manchester United

Away

American Express Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

AI call Manchester United or draw

33%

24%

42%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Brighton vs Manchester United prediction: Sportiko gives Brighton a 33% chance of winning, Manchester United 42% and the draw 24%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Manchester United claimed a commanding 3-0 victory at Brighton on the final day of the Premier League season, with the result secured well before the break. Patrick Dorgu opened the scoring on 33 minutes, and Bryan Mbeumo doubled the advantage just before half-time to put United firmly in control at the interval.

Bruno Fernandes added a third shortly after the restart, with VAR confirming the goal on 50 minutes to extinguish any hope of a Brighton comeback. Our pre-match AI model had rated a United win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct. The result was particularly impressive given the underlying numbers — Brighton generated 1.66 expected goals to United's 0.79, yet the visitors converted their chances with clinical efficiency, managing just two shots on target from 13 total attempts.

Brighton made a series of changes in an attempt to alter the game's direction, bringing on Diego Gómez, James Milner, and Danny Welbeck in the second half, but United's defence held firm to secure a clean sheet and a comfortable away win.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 33'

Patrick Dorgu assist: Bruno Fernandes

⚽ 0–2 44'

Bryan Mbeumo assist: Amad Diallo

▮ 45+3'

Kobbie Mainoo Yellow Card

HT 0–2

Maxim De Cuyper ⇄ Yankuba Minteh

46' ⇄

⚽ 0–3 48'

Bruno Fernandes assist: Patrick Dorgu

🖵 50'

Bruno Fernandes Goal confirmed

Diego Gómez ⇄ Solly March

59' ⇄

James Milner ⇄ Carlos Baleba

59' ⇄

Danny Welbeck ⇄ Charalampos Kostoulas

59' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Patrick Dorgu ⇄ Shea Lacey

Jack Hinshelwood ⇄ Georginio Rutter

74' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Bryan Mbeumo ⇄ Joshua Zirkzee

⇄ 74'

Noussair Mazraoui ⇄ Leny Yoro

⇄ 74'

Mason Mount ⇄ Tyler Fletcher

⇄ 82'

Luke Shaw ⇄ Tyrell Malacia

FT 0–3

Brighton

Match Stats

Manchester United

52% Ball Possession 48%

0.79 Expected Goals (xG) 1.66

13 Total Shots 11

2 Shots on Goal 7

6 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 1

9 Shots insidebox 7

4 Shots outsidebox 4

0 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 8

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 2

484 Total passes 450

415 Passes accurate 372

86% Passes % 83%

0.30 goals_prevented 0.30

Brighton

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Carlos Baleba M	7.2	31'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	2
19 Charalampos Kostoulas F	7.2	31'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
6 J. van Hecke D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	71 (63%)	1
7 Solly March M	6.9	31'	–	–	1	10 (8%)	2
5 Lewis Dunk D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	81 (80%)	2
29 Maxim De Cuyper M	6.6	45'	–	–	1	13 (11%)	1
25 Diego Gómez M	6.5	59'	–	–	3	20 (12%)	1
27 M. Wieffer D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	37 (27%)	2
10 Georginio Rutter F	6.5	16'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
11 Yankuba Minteh F	6.3	45'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	3
30 Pascal Groß M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	58 (49%)	–
1 B. Verbruggen G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	–
13 Jack Hinshelwood M	6.2	74'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	1
20 James Milner M	6.2	59'	–	–	–	45 (41%)	1
24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu D	6.0	90'	–	–	1	46 (40%)	1
18 Danny Welbeck F	6.0	59'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–

Manchester United

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Bruno Fernandes M	8.3	90'	1	1	1	54 (47%)	2
13 Patrick Dorgu M	8.3	62'	1	1	3	18 (14%)	1
16 Amad Diallo M	7.5	90'	–	1	2	35 (31%)	1
7 Mason Mount M	7.5	74'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	4
6 Lisandro Martínez D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	49 (43%)	1
37 Kobbie Mainoo M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	58 (45%)	2
5 Harry Maguire D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	52 (45%)	1
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	7.0	74'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	1
31 Senne Lammens G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (13%)	–
15 Leny Yoro D	6.9	16'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	1
23 Luke Shaw D	6.9	82'	–	–	1	29 (27%)	2
12 Tyrell Malacia D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	2
39 Tyler Fletcher M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	–
19 Bryan Mbeumo F	6.6	74'	1	–	1	13 (10%)	–
61 Shea Lacey F	6.6	28'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	–
11 Joshua Zirkzee F	6.5	16'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Our lean

Manchester United or draw

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Brighton

LLWLW

Manchester United

WWWWD

Last 3 meetings Brighton · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Brighton will host Manchester United in a crucial Premier League clash on May 24, 2026. Brighton has been solid at home, boasting a strong attacking unit averaging 2.1 goals per game, with key players like Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma contributing significantly. Conversely, Manchester United has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game on the road. Historically, Brighton has performed well against United, winning 3 of their last 5 encounters. This match could hinge on Brighton's ability to exploit United's defensive vulnerabilities while aiming to secure European competition qualifications.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester United goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	8	6	3	1
1	7	11	9	5	2	1
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	2	4	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Brighton goals · most likely 1–1 (11.3%)

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Head to Head: Brighton vs Manchester United

2 Brighton Wins

0 Draws

1 Manchester United Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Oct 2025	Manchester United	4 - 2	Brighton
19 Jan 2025	Manchester United	1 - 3	Brighton
24 Aug 2024	Brighton	2 - 1	Manchester United

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Brighton — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 May	H Manchester United	L	0 - 3
17 May	A Leeds	L	1 - 0
09 May	H Wolves	W	3 - 0
02 May	A Newcastle	L	3 - 1
21 Apr	H Chelsea	W	3 - 0

Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Atletico Madrid	W	2 - 1
24 Jul	A Rosenborg	W	0 - 5
24 May	A Brighton	W	0 - 3
17 May	H Nottingham Forest	W	3 - 2
09 May	A Sunderland	D	0 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0