Lille vs Aston Villa Prediction

UEFA Europa League · Round of 16

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Aston Villa

Away

AI call Aston Villa or draw

33%

29%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lille vs Aston Villa prediction: Sportiko gives Lille a 33% chance of winning, Aston Villa 38% and the draw 29%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:30.

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Our lean

Aston Villa or draw

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Lille

LWLWD

Aston Villa

WWLWD

Last 3 meetings Lille · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa League clash, Lille hosts Aston Villa on March 12, 2026. Lille has shown strong home form in European competitions, boasting a 70% win rate at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in their last 10 matches. Conversely, Aston Villa's away performance has been inconsistent, with only a 40% success rate in their last five away fixtures. Key players to watch include Lille's Jonathan David, who has been instrumental in their attack, and Villa's Ollie Watkins, a pivotal figure in their forward line. This match could hinge on Lille's ability to control possession and exploit Villa's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

38%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Aston Villa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	13	7	3	1
1	12	13	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	2
3	2	2	1	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Lille goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Lille

No scorer data.

Aston Villa

O. Watkins 5 gls

J. McGinn 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lille vs Aston Villa

1 Lille Wins

0 Draws

2 Aston Villa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Mar 2026	Aston Villa	2 - 0	Lille
18 Apr 2024	Lille	2 - 1	Aston Villa
11 Apr 2024	Aston Villa	2 - 1	Lille

Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Nice	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Estac Troyes	W	2 - 0
08 Sep	H Real Betis	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Toulouse	W	0 - 1
28 Aug	H Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Tottenham	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Coventry	W	1 - 3
12 Sep	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	A Hull City	D	0 - 0

UEFA Europa League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	8	7	0	1	18	5	+13	21
2	Aston Villa	8	7	0	1	14	6	+8	21
3	FC Midtjylland	8	6	1	1	18	8	+10	19
4	Real Betis	8	5	2	1	13	7	+6	17
5	FC Porto	8	5	2	1	13	7	+6	17
6	SC Braga	8	5	2	1	11	5	+6	17
7	SC Freiburg	8	5	2	1	10	4	+6	17
8	AS Roma	8	5	1	2	13	6	+7	16
9	Genk	8	5	1	2	11	7	+4	16
10	Bologna	8	4	3	1	14	7	+7	15
11	VfB Stuttgart	8	5	0	3	15	9	+6	15
12	Ferencvarosi TC	8	4	3	1	12	11	+1	15
13	Nottingham Forest	8	4	2	2	15	7	+8	14
14	Plzen	8	3	5	0	8	3	+5	14
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	8	4	2	2	7	6	+1	14
16	Celta Vigo	8	4	1	3	15	11	+4	13
17	PAOK	8	3	3	2	17	14	+3	12
18	Lille	8	4	0	4	12	9	+3	12
19	Fenerbahçe	8	3	3	2	10	7	+3	12
20	Panathinaikos	8	3	3	2	11	9	+2	12
21	Celtic	8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11
22	Ludogorets	8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10
23	Dinamo Zagreb	8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10
24	Brann	8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9
25	BSC Young Boys	8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9
26	Sturm Graz	8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7
27	FCSB	8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7
28	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7
29	Feyenoord	8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6
30	FC Basel 1893	8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6
31	Red Bull Salzburg	8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6
32	Rangers	8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4
33	Nice	8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3
34	Utrecht	8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1
35	Malmo FF	8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv	8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.