Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Liverpool

Away

Villa Park, Birmingham

AI call Aston Villa or draw

40%

27%

34%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction: Sportiko gives Aston Villa a 40% chance of winning, Liverpool 34% and the draw 27%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Aston Villa claimed a dramatic 4–2 victory over Liverpool at Villa Park in a match that swung sharply after the interval. Morgan Rogers broke the deadlock just before half-time, converting in the 42nd minute to send the hosts in ahead, with both sides picking up yellow cards in a feisty closing spell to the first half.

Liverpool levelled through Virgil van Dijk seven minutes into the second half, but Villa responded emphatically. Ollie Watkins struck twice in quick succession — in the 57th and 73rd minutes — to put the hosts firmly in control, with the second goal coming shortly after Joe Gomez was substituted following his booking. John McGinn added a fifth in the 89th minute before van Dijk pulled one back deep into stoppage time to make it 4–2, though the result was long settled by then.

Despite Liverpool registering more shots on goal and carrying a higher expected goals figure of 1.91 to Villa's 1.55, the hosts were clinical when it mattered. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Aston Villa win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Matty Cash Yellow Card

39' ▮

Morgan Rogers assist: Lucas Digne

42' ⚽ 1–0

Ollie Watkins Yellow Card

45+3' ▮

HT 1–0

Victor Lindelöf ⇄ Ross Barkley

46' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 52'

V. van Dijk assist: Dominik Szoboszlai

Ollie Watkins assist: Morgan Rogers

57' ⚽ 2–1

▮ 62'

Joe Gomez Yellow Card

John McGinn Yellow Card

66' ▮

⇄ 66'

Joe Gomez ⇄ Federico Chiesa

⇄ 66'

R. Gravenberch ⇄ Florian Wirtz

Ollie Watkins

73' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ 74'

C. Gakpo ⇄ Mohamed Salah

Emiliano Buendía ⇄ Ian Maatsen

85' ⇄

John McGinn assist: Ollie Watkins

89' ⚽ 4–1

⚽ 4–2 90'

V. van Dijk assist: Dominik Szoboszlai

Youri Tielemans ⇄ Douglas Luiz

90' ⇄

John McGinn ⇄ Jadon Sancho

90' ⇄

FT 4–2

Aston Villa

Match Stats

Liverpool

45% Ball Possession 55%

1.91 Expected Goals (xG) 1.55

14 Total Shots 16

9 Shots on Goal 5

2 Shots off Goal 8

3 Blocked Shots 3

9 Shots insidebox 10

5 Shots outsidebox 6

4 Corner Kicks 9

2 Offsides 3

12 Fouls 9

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

360 Total passes 430

297 Passes accurate 372

83% Passes % 87%

-1.25 goals_prevented -1.25

Aston Villa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Ollie Watkins F	8.3	90'	2	1	6	16 (13%)	–
27 Morgan Rogers M	8.2	90'	1	1	1	31 (21%)	2
7 John McGinn M	7.7	89'	1	–	1	22 (20%)	1
8 Youri Tielemans M	7.2	89'	–	–	1	39 (32%)	2
12 Lucas Digne D	6.9	90'	–	1	–	25 (20%)	1
23 Emiliano Martínez G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	46 (31%)	–
4 Ezri Konsa D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	44 (42%)	–
6 Ross Barkley M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	22 (21%)	1
10 Emiliano Buendía M	6.7	85'	–	–	1	17 (11%)	1
14 Pau Torres D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	37 (33%)	1
19 Jadon Sancho F	6.6	9'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
21 Douglas Luiz M	6.5	9'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
3 Victor Lindelöf M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	–
22 Ian Maatsen D	6.3	14'	–	–	–	–	–
2 Matty Cash D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	2

Liverpool

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 V. van Dijk D	8.3	90'	2	–	2	67 (56%)	–
25 Giorgi Mamardashvili G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
17 Curtis Jones M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	64 (60%)	3
11 Mohamed Salah F	6.7	16'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
73 Rio Ngumoha M	6.7	90'	–	–	2	16 (15%)	1
14 Federico Chiesa F	6.7	24'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
10 Alexis Mac Allister M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	53 (46%)	2
7 Florian Wirtz M	6.3	24'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	1
38 R. Gravenberch M	6.3	66'	–	–	1	23 (20%)	1
18 C. Gakpo F	6.3	74'	–	–	2	7 (6%)	–
8 Dominik Szoboszlai M	6.3	90'	–	2	1	35 (30%)	–
5 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	52 (46%)	–
2 Joe Gomez D	5.9	66'	–	–	2	31 (27%)	–
6 Miloš Kerkez D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	–

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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Our lean

Aston Villa or draw

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Aston Villa

LLWWD

Liverpool

LWWDL

Last 3 meetings Aston Villa · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Aston Villa will host Liverpool in what promises to be an intriguing Premier League clash. Historically, Liverpool has dominated this fixture, with a win rate of approximately 60% in their last 10 encounters. Aston Villa's home form has been solid, boasting a 65% win rate at Villa Park this season, while Liverpool has struggled on the road, securing only 50% of their away matches. Key players to watch include Villa's Ollie Watkins, who has been prolific with 15 goals this season, and Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, who leads the league in assists. The outcome may hinge on Villa’s defensive resilience against Liverpool’s attacking prowess.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Liverpool goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	9	6	2	1
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	7	9	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Aston Villa goals · most likely 1–1 (12.6%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Aston Villa vs Liverpool

0 Aston Villa Wins

1 Draws

2 Liverpool Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Nov 2025	Liverpool	2 - 0	Aston Villa
19 Feb 2025	Aston Villa	2 - 2	Liverpool
09 Nov 2024	Liverpool	2 - 0	Aston Villa

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Bayern München	L	2 - 1
25 Jul	A FC Porto	L	2 - 1
24 May	A Manchester City	W	1 - 2
15 May	H Liverpool	W	4 - 2
10 May	A Burnley	D	2 - 2

Liverpool — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	H Leeds	L	2 - 4
29 Jul	H Wrexham	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Sunderland	W	4 - 2
24 May	H Brentford	D	1 - 1
15 May	A Aston Villa	L	4 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0