Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction
Arsenal vs Burnley prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 85% chance of winning, Burnley 3% and the draw 12%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Arsenal secured a narrow but comfortable 1–0 victory over Burnley at the Emirates, with Kai Havertz's 37th-minute strike proving the decisive moment. The German midfielder tucked away the only goal of the game before half-time, and Arsenal's dominance was reflected in the statistics — 60% possession, 13 total shots to Burnley's five, and an expected goals figure of 1.29 compared to a meagre 0.19 for the visitors, who failed to register a single shot on target throughout the entire match. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Arsenal win at 85%, a call that proved well-founded.
The second half was largely uneventful in terms of clear-cut chances, though both managers were busy with their substitution boards. Havertz, who had picked up a yellow card in the 67th minute, was withdrawn shortly after alongside Riccardo Calafiori, while Burnley made wholesale changes in search of an equaliser that never came. Late bookings for Zian Flemming and Lucas Pires summed up a frustrated Burnley side.
Arsenal claimed all three points with a professional, controlled display, keeping their clean sheet intact and maintaining pressure on the top of the Premier League table.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Arsenal
Match Stats
Arsenal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 Declan Rice M | 8.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 83 (73%) | 5 |
| 29 Kai Havertz F | 7.6 | 73' | 1 | – | 2 | 30 (25%) | – |
| 2 William Saliba D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 63 (58%) | – |
| 7 Bukayo Saka F | 7.3 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 32 (24%) | 5 |
| 33 Riccardo Calafiori D | 7.3 | 72' | – | – | – | 30 (28%) | – |
| 6 Gabriel Magalhães D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 52 (44%) | 1 |
| 19 Leandro Trossard F | 7.2 | 89' | – | – | 2 | 31 (28%) | – |
| 10 Eberechi Eze M | 7.2 | 73' | – | – | 3 | 36 (33%) | – |
| 8 Martin Ødegaard M | 7.0 | 89' | – | – | – | 74 (65%) | – |
| 3 Cristhian Mosquera D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (48%) | 4 |
| 1 David Raya G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 16 (12%) | – |
| 5 Piero Hincapié D | 6.7 | 18' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | 1 |
| 14 Viktor Gyökeres F | 6.7 | 17' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | 1 |
| 49 Myles Lewis-Skelly D | 6.6 | 17' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 11 Gabriel Martinelli F | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 | – |
| 36 Martín Zubimendi M | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 | – |
Burnley
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Max Weiss G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (28%) | – |
| 5 Maxime Estève D | 7.2 | 82' | – | – | – | 28 (26%) | 4 |
| 8 Lesley Ugochukwu M | 7.2 | 71' | – | – | – | 25 (21%) | 2 |
| 16 Florentino Luís M | 6.9 | 78' | – | – | 1 | 17 (15%) | 3 |
| 25 Zeki Amdouni F | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 20 James Ward-Prowse M | 6.7 | 12' | – | – | – | 19 (16%) | – |
| 2 Kyle Walker D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (30%) | 2 |
| 12 Bashir Humphreys D | 6.6 | 8' | – | – | – | 14 (14%) | – |
| 23 Lucas Pires D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (22%) | 3 |
| 29 Josh Laurent M | 6.6 | 19' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | 3 |
| 6 Axel Tuanzebe D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (35%) | – |
| 19 Zian Flemming F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 14 (8%) | 2 |
| 7 Jacob Bruun Larsen F | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 17 Loum Tchaouna M | 6.3 | 82' | – | – | – | 13 (8%) | – |
| 11 Jaidon Anthony M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (25%) | 1 |
| 28 Hannibal Mejbri M | 5.9 | 70' | – | – | 2 | 14 (12%) | 1 |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Arsenal vs Burnley
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2025 | Burnley | 0 - 2 | Arsenal |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Burnley | 0 - 5 | Arsenal |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Arsenal | 3 - 1 | Burnley |
Arsenal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug | H Real Betis | L | 1 - 3 |
| 01 Aug | A Girona | W | 1 - 4 |
| 24 May | A Crystal Palace | W | 1 - 2 |
| 18 May | H Burnley | W | 1 - 0 |
| 10 May | A West Ham | W | 0 - 1 |
Burnley — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug | H Torino | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Jul | H Espanyol | D | 2 - 2 |
| 26 Jul | A Ajax | L | 2 - 1 |
| 24 May | H Wolves | D | 1 - 1 |
| 18 May | A Arsenal | L | 1 - 0 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Aston Villa
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Bournemouth
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
Brighton
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
Coventry
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
Crystal Palace
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
Everton
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
Fulham
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
Hull City
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
Ipswich
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
Leeds
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
Liverpool
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
Manchester City
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
Manchester United
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
Newcastle
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
Nottingham Forest
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
Sunderland
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Arsenal
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. Raya | G |
| 3 | C. Mosquera | D |
| 2 | W. Saliba | D |
| 6 | Gabriel | D |
| 33 | R. Calafiori | D |
| 8 | M. Odegaard | M |
| 41 | D. Rice | M |
| 10 | E. Eze | M |
| 7 | B. Saka | F |
| 29 | K. Havertz | F |
| 19 | L. Trossard | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | K. Arrizabalaga | G |
| 9 | Gabriel Jesus | F |
| 14 | V. Gyökeres | F |
| 20 | N. Madueke | F |
| 11 | G. Martinelli | F |
| 5 | P. Hincapie | D |
| 36 | M. Zubimendi | M |
| 49 | M. Lewis-Skelly | D |
| 56 | M. Dowman | M |
Burnley
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Mike Jackson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | M. Weiss | G |
| 2 | K. Walker | D |
| 6 | A. Tuanzebe | D |
| 5 | M. Esteve | D |
| 23 | Lucas Pires | D |
| 16 | Florentino | M |
| 8 | L. Ugochukwu | M |
| 17 | L. Tchaouna | M |
| 28 | H. Mejbri | M |
| 11 | J. Anthony | M |
| 19 | Z. Flemming | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | M. Dubravka | G |
| 4 | J. Worrall | D |
| 3 | Q. Hartman | D |
| 20 | J. Ward-Prowse | M |
| 29 | J. Laurent | M |
| 7 | J. Bruun Larsen | F |
| 10 | M. Edwards | F |
| 12 | B. Humphreys | D |
| 25 | Z. Amdouni | F |