Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 37

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Manchester City

Away

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

AI call Difficult Manchester City win or draw

19%

27%

54%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Bournemouth vs Manchester City prediction: Sportiko gives Bournemouth a 19% chance of winning, Manchester City 54% and the draw 27%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Bournemouth and Manchester City played out a 1–1 draw at the Vitality Stadium in matchday 37 of the Premier League, with the hosts leading for most of the contest before a late City equaliser. Eli Junior Kroupi broke the deadlock in the 39th minute to send Bournemouth into half-time ahead, with Tyler Adams having picked up a yellow card just two minutes prior to add some early tension to proceedings.

Manchester City pushed for a response after the break, making a triple substitution on 56 minutes as Kovačić, Bernardo Silva, and Doku were introduced at various points to inject more creativity. Despite dominating possession at 54% and registering 14 total shots, City struggled to convert, with Bournemouth's defence holding firm for much of the second half. Erling Haaland finally levelled in the 90th minute to rescue a point for the visitors.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester City win as the most likely outcome at 54%, though ultimately neither side managed to claim all three points. The closing stages grew fractious, with five yellow cards distributed across both teams in the final minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Tyler Adams Yellow Card

37' ▮

Eli Junior Kroupi assist: Adrien Truffert

39' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 56'

Mateo Kovačić ⇄ Phil Foden

⇄ 56'

Bernardo Silva ⇄ Rayan Cherki

⇄ 56'

Antoine Semenyo ⇄ Savinho

James Hill Yellow Card

59' ▮

Eli Junior Kroupi ⇄ J. Kluivert

76' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Jérémy Doku ⇄ Omar Marmoush

Rayan ⇄ David Brooks

84' ⇄

Evanilson ⇄ Enes Ünal

89' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 90'

Erling Haaland

Adam Smith

90' ⇄

J. Kluivert Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

▮ 90+3'

Rodri Yellow Card

Adrien Truffert Yellow Card

90+6' ▮

▮ 90+7'

Gianluigi Donnarumma Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Bournemouth

Match Stats

Manchester City

46% Ball Possession 54%

2.25 Expected Goals (xG) 1.48

10 Total Shots 14

2 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 6

6 Shots insidebox 10

4 Shots outsidebox 4

7 Corner Kicks 6

2 Offsides 2

16 Fouls 7

4 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

446 Total passes 536

361 Passes accurate 464

81% Passes % 87%

0.22 goals_prevented 0.22

Bournemouth

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Marcus Tavernier M	7.9	90'	–	–	–	47 (41%)	2
22 Eli Junior Kroupi M	7.6	76'	1	–	2	32 (26%)	–
3 Adrien Truffert D	7.5	90'	–	1	–	42 (35%)	4
9 Evanilson F	7.3	89'	–	–	2	17 (16%)	1
5 Marcos Senesi D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	72 (57%)	1
1 Đorđe Petrović G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	30 (19%)	–
8 Alex Scott M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	47 (41%)	2
12 Tyler Adams M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	4
15 Adam Smith D	6.9	89'	–	–	–	30 (23%)	1
26 Enes Ünal F	6.9	8'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
23 James Hill D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	47 (39%)	1
37 Rayan M	6.6	84'	–	–	1	27 (20%)	1
7 David Brooks M	6.5	13'	–	–	2	4 (2%)	1
19 J. Kluivert F	6.3	14'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
4 Lewis Cook M	—	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Manchester City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Rodri M	7.7	90'	–	–	3	88 (77%)	2
26 Savinho F	7.2	34'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	–
9 Erling Haaland F	7.0	90'	1	–	1	15 (12%)	–
11 Jérémy Doku M	6.9	76'	–	–	1	22 (17%)	–
27 Matheus Nunes D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	56 (52%)	1
25 Gianluigi Donnarumma G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
47 Phil Foden M	6.9	34'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	–
20 Bernardo Silva M	6.7	56'	–	–	–	47 (41%)	–
15 Marc Guéhi D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	52 (47%)	1
7 Omar Marmoush F	6.6	14'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
10 Rayan Cherki M	6.6	34'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
8 Mateo Kovačić M	6.6	56'	–	–	–	46 (40%)	–
45 Abdukodir Khusanov D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	82 (74%)	1
33 Nico O'Reilly D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	48 (39%)	–
42 Antoine Semenyo M	6.5	56'	–	–	1	21 (16%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Manchester City win or draw

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Bournemouth

WDDWW

Manchester City

DLDWD

Last 3 meetings Bournemouth · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on May 17, 2026, Bournemouth hosts Manchester City at the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth, while showing resilience at home, typically struggles against top-tier teams, having secured just 1 win in their last 5 matches against City. On the other hand, Manchester City has been in formidable form, currently sitting at the top of the league with a strong away record, boasting an average of 2.5 goals per game on the road. With City's attacking depth and Bournemouth's defensive vulnerabilities, the visitors are favored to control possession and create numerous scoring opportunities. Expect a high-pressure match where City looks to maintain their title push with a convincing victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester City goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	17	12	6	2	1
1	8	12	9	4	1
2	3	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Bournemouth goals · most likely 0–1 (16.6%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Bournemouth vs Manchester City

1 Bournemouth Wins

0 Draws

2 Manchester City Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 Nov 2025	Manchester City	3 - 1	Bournemouth
20 May 2025	Manchester City	3 - 1	Bournemouth
02 Nov 2024	Bournemouth	2 - 1	Manchester City

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Bournemouth — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Jul	H FC St. Pauli	W	4 - 1
24 May	A Nottingham Forest	D	1 - 1
19 May	H Manchester City	D	1 - 1
09 May	A Fulham	W	0 - 1
03 May	H Crystal Palace	W	3 - 0

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Inter	D	1 - 1
24 May	H Aston Villa	L	1 - 2
19 May	A Bournemouth	D	1 - 1
09 May	H Brentford	W	3 - 0
04 May	A Everton	D	3 - 3

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0