Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Nottingham Forest

Away

Old Trafford, Manchester

AI call Difficult Manchester United win or draw

56%

23%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest prediction: Sportiko gives Manchester United a 56% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest 22% and the draw 23%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Manchester United edged out Nottingham Forest 3–2 in a dramatic Premier League encounter at Old Trafford. Luke Shaw broke the deadlock as early as the fifth minute, and the hosts carried that slender advantage into half-time.

The second half erupted in extraordinary fashion. Forest levelled through Morato just eight minutes after the restart, only for Matheus Cunha to restore United's lead within two minutes — a goal confirmed by VAR. The visitors then struck twice in quick succession through Bryan Mbeumo and Morgan Gibbs-White to flip the scoreline to 3–2 in Forest's favour, turning what had looked a comfortable afternoon for United into a frantic finale. Despite the late drama, United held on to claim all three points, with the match finishing 3–2 in their favour — a result our pre-match AI model had flagged as the most likely outcome at 56%.

United's dominance was reflected in the underlying numbers, generating 4.57 expected goals from 29 total shots compared to Forest's 1.88 from 11. The closing stages saw yellow cards for Casemiro, Luke Shaw, and Elliot Anderson, adding further tension to a breathless conclusion.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Luke Shaw

5' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 53'

Morato assist: Elliot Anderson

Matheus Cunha

55' ⚽ 2–1

Matheus Cunha Goal confirmed

57' 🖵

⇄ 70'

Chris Wood ⇄ Taiwo Awoniyi

⇄ 70'

Nicolás Domínguez ⇄ Ibrahim Sangaré

⇄ 70'

Omari Hutchinson ⇄ Dilane Bakwa

Bryan Mbeumo assist: Bruno Fernandes

76' ⚽ 3–1

Casemiro Yellow Card

78' ▮

⚽ 3–2 78'

Morgan Gibbs-White assist: Elliot Anderson

Bryan Mbeumo ⇄ Joshua Zirkzee

80' ⇄

Matheus Cunha ⇄ Patrick Dorgu

80' ⇄

Casemiro ⇄ Mason Mount

81' ⇄

⇄ 84'

Igor Jesus ⇄ James McAtee

⇄ 84'

Luca Netz ⇄ Jair

Luke Shaw Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

▮ 90+4'

Elliot Anderson Yellow Card

FT 3–2

Manchester United

Match Stats

Nottingham Forest

48% Ball Possession 52%

4.57 Expected Goals (xG) 1.88

29 Total Shots 11

8 Shots on Goal 4

9 Shots off Goal 4

12 Blocked Shots 3

21 Shots insidebox 11

8 Shots outsidebox 1

7 Corner Kicks 6

0 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 5

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

438 Total passes 472

383 Passes accurate 398

87% Passes % 84%

0.19 goals_prevented 0.19

Manchester United

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Bruno Fernandes M	8.7	90'	–	1	3	60 (48%)	2
10 Matheus Cunha M	8.5	80'	1	–	1	32 (27%)	1
6 Lisandro Martínez D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	48 (46%)	3
18 Casemiro M	7.2	81'	–	–	1	54 (48%)	2
31 Senne Lammens G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
23 Luke Shaw D	7.2	90'	1	–	1	30 (27%)	–
7 Mason Mount M	7.0	9'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	1
2 Diogo Dalot D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	38 (34%)	4
37 Kobbie Mainoo M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (51%)	–
5 Harry Maguire D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	2
13 Patrick Dorgu D	6.9	10'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
16 Amad Diallo M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	20 (17%)	1
19 Bryan Mbeumo F	6.6	80'	1	–	4	18 (16%)	–
11 Joshua Zirkzee F	6.5	10'	–	–	2	7 (5%)	–

Nottingham Forest

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Elliot Anderson M	9.3	90'	–	2	–	80 (71%)	3
10 Morgan Gibbs-White M	7.7	90'	1	–	3	35 (30%)	1
4 Morato D	7.3	90'	1	–	1	40 (34%)	2
16 Nicolás Domínguez M	7.2	70'	–	–	1	55 (52%)	4
23 Jair D	7.0	15'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
6 Ibrahim Sangaré M	6.9	20'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	1
26 Matz Sels G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	24 (17%)	–
24 James McAtee M	6.9	15'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	2
3 Neco Williams D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	44 (36%)	3
19 Igor Jesus F	6.6	84'	–	–	–	22 (13%)	1
29 Dilane Bakwa F	6.6	20'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
9 Taiwo Awoniyi F	6.5	20'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	–
11 Chris Wood F	6.3	70'	–	–	1	20 (10%)	–
21 Omari Hutchinson M	6.3	70'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	–
31 Nikola Milenković D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	56 (52%)	1
25 Luca Netz D	5.9	84'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	1

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Manchester United win or draw

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Manchester United

WWWWD

Nottingham Forest

LWDLD

Last 3 meetings Manchester United · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on May 17, 2026, Manchester United will host Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford. Historically, United has dominated this fixture, boasting a strong home record with an average of 2.5 goals scored per match in their last five home games. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per game in their last five away fixtures. Key players like Bruno Fernandes will be crucial for United, while Forest will rely on their counter-attacking pace to exploit any gaps in the home side's defense. Given the current form and statistical trends, Manchester United is favored to secure a comfortable victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nottingham Forest goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	6	3	1
1	10	11	6	2	1
2	9	10	5	2	1
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Manchester United goals · most likely 1–1 (10.6%)

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Head to Head: Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

0 Manchester United Wins

1 Draws

2 Nottingham Forest Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Nov 2025	Nottingham Forest	2 - 2	Manchester United
01 Apr 2025	Nottingham Forest	1 - 0	Manchester United
07 Dec 2024	Manchester United	2 - 3	Nottingham Forest

See all 7 meetings — Premium

Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Atletico Madrid	W	2 - 1
24 Jul	A Rosenborg	W	0 - 5
24 May	A Brighton	W	0 - 3
17 May	H Nottingham Forest	W	3 - 2
09 May	A Sunderland	D	0 - 0

Nottingham Forest — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 Jul	A Sporting CP	L	4 - 1
22 Jul	H Blackburn	W	3 - 0
24 May	H Bournemouth	D	1 - 1
17 May	A Manchester United	L	3 - 2
10 May	H Newcastle	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0