Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction
Burnley vs Aston Villa prediction: Sportiko gives Burnley a 11% chance of winning, Aston Villa 65% and the draw 24%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Burnley earned a hard-fought point against Aston Villa in a lively Premier League encounter at Turf Moor. Jaidon Anthony gave the hosts an early lead in the eighth minute, before a VAR cancellation denied Ollie Watkins an equaliser late in the first half. Ross Barkley then struck in the 42nd minute to level matters heading into the break.
The second half produced a frantic ten-minute spell that ultimately decided the outcome. Watkins finally got his goal in the 56th minute to put Villa ahead, only for Zian Flemming to equalise two minutes later — the Dutch midfielder picking up a yellow card shortly after his effort. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Villa win as most likely at 65%, a call that did not materialise.
Despite Villa dominating possession at 66% and generating eight corner kicks to Burnley's two, the xG figures told a closer story, with Burnley edging the metric at 1.79 to 1.44. Both managers turned to their benches heavily in the final quarter, but neither side could find a winner, leaving the points shared.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Burnley
Match Stats
Burnley
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Hannibal Mejbri M | 7.3 | 69' | – | 1 | – | 17 (13%) | 2 |
| 8 Lesley Ugochukwu M | 7.2 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 21 (15%) | 2 |
| 2 Kyle Walker D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (27%) | 4 |
| 13 Max Weiss G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (9%) | – |
| 19 Zian Flemming F | 7.0 | 79' | 1 | – | 3 | 8 (4%) | 4 |
| 17 Loum Tchaouna M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 16 (12%) | 3 |
| 11 Jaidon Anthony M | 6.7 | 87' | 1 | – | 2 | 26 (19%) | 2 |
| 7 Jacob Bruun Larsen F | 6.7 | 10' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 23 Lucas Pires D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (18%) | 1 |
| 20 James Ward-Prowse M | 6.6 | 10' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 6 Axel Tuanzebe D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (21%) | 1 |
| 5 Maxime Estève D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (15%) | – |
| 16 Florentino Luís M | 6.3 | 87' | – | – | 1 | 32 (27%) | 1 |
| 29 Josh Laurent M | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | 1 |
| 9 Lyle Foster F | 6.2 | 21' | – | – | – | 5 | – |
| 25 Zeki Amdouni F | 6.2 | 11' | – | – | 2 | 1 (1%) | – |
Aston Villa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Youri Tielemans M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 66 (56%) | 2 |
| 12 Lucas Digne D | 7.3 | 16' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | 1 |
| 4 Ezri Konsa D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 82 (82%) | 1 |
| 11 Ollie Watkins F | 7.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 16 (10%) | – |
| 21 Douglas Luiz M | 7.0 | 10' | – | – | 1 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 10 Emiliano Buendía M | 7.0 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 8 (8%) | – |
| 6 Ross Barkley M | 6.9 | 80' | 1 | – | 4 | 35 (31%) | 1 |
| 7 John McGinn M | 6.7 | 85' | – | 1 | 2 | 35 (24%) | – |
| 23 Emiliano Martínez G | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 39 (34%) | – |
| 26 Lamare Bogarde M | 6.7 | 10' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | 1 |
| 31 Leon Bailey F | 6.6 | 12' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 3 Victor Lindelöf M | 6.5 | 74' | – | – | – | 41 (36%) | – |
| 22 Ian Maatsen D | 6.5 | 74' | – | – | 1 | 22 (18%) | 3 |
| 5 Tyrone Mings D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 79 (70%) | – |
| 27 Morgan Rogers M | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (26%) | 2 |
| 2 Matty Cash D | 5.6 | 80' | – | – | – | 37 (35%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Burnley vs Aston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct 2025 | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | Burnley |
| 30 Dec 2023 | Aston Villa | 3 - 2 | Burnley |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Burnley | 1 - 3 | Aston Villa |
Burnley — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Derby | D | 1 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Swansea | L | 3 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | A Wrexham | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Bristol City | L | 1 - 2 |
| 02 Sep | H Middlesbrough | D | 1 - 1 |
Aston Villa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Tottenham | W | 2 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | A Coventry | W | 1 - 3 |
| 12 Sep | H Nottingham Forest | L | 1 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | A Club Brugge KV | W | 2 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Hull City | D | 0 - 0 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Burnley
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Mike Jackson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | M. Weiss | G |
| 2 | K. Walker | D |
| 6 | A. Tuanzebe | D |
| 5 | M. Esteve | D |
| 23 | Lucas Pires | D |
| 16 | Florentino | M |
| 8 | L. Ugochukwu | M |
| 17 | L. Tchaouna | M |
| 28 | H. Mejbri | M |
| 11 | J. Anthony | M |
| 19 | Z. Flemming | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | M. Dubravka | G |
| 27 | A. Broja | F |
| 3 | Q. Hartman | D |
| 20 | J. Ward-Prowse | M |
| 29 | J. Laurent | M |
| 7 | J. Bruun Larsen | F |
| 9 | L. Foster | F |
| 12 | B. Humphreys | D |
| 25 | Z. Amdouni | F |
Aston Villa
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Unai Emery
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | E. Martinez | G |
| 2 | M. Cash | D |
| 4 | E. Konsa | D |
| 5 | T. Mings | D |
| 22 | I. Maatsen | D |
| 3 | V. Lindelof | M |
| 8 | Y. Tielemans | M |
| 7 | J. McGinn | M |
| 6 | R. Barkley | M |
| 27 | M. Rogers | M |
| 11 | O. Watkins | F |
Substitutes
| 40 | M. Bizot | G |
| 31 | L. Bailey | F |
| 14 | P. Torres | D |
| 21 | Douglas Luiz | M |
| 26 | L. Bogarde | M |
| 12 | L. Digne | D |
| 18 | T. Abraham | F |
| 10 | E. Buendia | M |
| 19 | J. Sancho | F |