Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 71% chance of winning, Newcastle 12% and the draw 17%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Arsenal secured a narrow but deserved 1–0 victory over Newcastle at the Emirates, with the only goal arriving early through Eberechi Eze in the ninth minute. The Crystal Palace loanee's strike proved decisive, giving Arsenal a lead they would protect for the remainder of the contest. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Arsenal win as most likely at 71%, and that assessment proved correct.
Despite dominating possession at 55%, Arsenal created relatively little after the opening goal, registering just three shots on target to Newcastle's four. The visitors actually generated more corner kicks — seven to Arsenal's two — and applied sustained pressure throughout the second half, though their expected goals figure of 0.49 reflected how rarely they truly threatened. A flurry of substitutions from both sides in the final quarter shaped a scrappy closing period, with yellow cards for Dan Burn, Gabriel Martinelli, Nick Pope, and Declan Rice underlining the match's growing tension.
Arsenal's expected goals tally of 1.00 suggested the scoreline was a fair reflection of the contest. The three points keep their title ambitions alive, while Newcastle will rue a lack of cutting edge despite their second-half pressure.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Arsenal
Match Stats
Arsenal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Piero Hincapié D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | 5 |
| 8 Martin Ødegaard M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 57 (49%) | 2 |
| 10 Eberechi Eze F | 7.3 | 53' | 1 | – | 3 | 11 (5%) | – |
| 36 Martín Zubimendi M | 7.2 | 81' | – | – | – | 48 (41%) | 5 |
| 4 Ben White D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (23%) | – |
| 2 William Saliba D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 50 (45%) | 1 |
| 6 Gabriel Magalhães D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (37%) | 1 |
| 1 David Raya G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (14%) | – |
| 49 Myles Lewis-Skelly D | 6.9 | 9' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 41 Declan Rice M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (43%) | – |
| 11 Gabriel Martinelli F | 6.6 | 37' | – | – | 1 | 13 (13%) | 1 |
| 7 Bukayo Saka F | 6.5 | 9' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 29 Kai Havertz F | 6.3 | 34' | – | 1 | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 14 Viktor Gyökeres F | 6.3 | 56' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
| 20 Noni Madueke F | 6.3 | 81' | – | – | 1 | 26 (23%) | – |
Newcastle
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sven Botman D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 66 (56%) | 2 |
| 39 Bruno Guimarães M | 7.2 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 54 (50%) | 2 |
| 1 Nick Pope G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (17%) | – |
| 12 Malick Thiaw D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (69%) | 2 |
| 8 Sandro Tonali M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 63 (54%) | 1 |
| 33 Dan Burn D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 37 (29%) | 2 |
| 11 Harvey Barnes M | 6.9 | 24' | – | – | – | 10 (10%) | – |
| 67 Lewis Miley D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (52%) | 1 |
| 41 Jacob Ramsey M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 35 (31%) | 3 |
| 27 Nick Woltemade F | 6.6 | 15' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 28 Joe Willock M | 6.6 | 86' | – | – | 2 | 25 (22%) | – |
| 18 William Osula F | 6.5 | 66' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 20 Anthony Elanga F | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 23 Jacob Murphy M | 6.2 | 66' | – | – | – | 18 (16%) | 1 |
| 9 Yoane Wissa F | 5.9 | 24' | – | – | 1 | 4 | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
B. Saka
3 gls
J. Willock
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Arsenal vs Newcastle
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2025 | Newcastle | 1 - 2 | Arsenal |
| 18 May 2025 | Arsenal | 1 - 0 | Newcastle |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | Arsenal |
Arsenal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Brighton | L | 3 - 0 |
| 15 Sep | A Ipswich | W | 2 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | A Sunderland | W | 0 - 2 |
| 09 Sep | A Napoli | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Chelsea | W | 2 - 1 |
Newcastle — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Hull City | W | 2 - 1 |
| 14 Sep | A Leeds | L | 4 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | A Millwall | W | 0 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Bournemouth | D | 2 - 2 |
| 29 Aug | A Tottenham | W | 0 - 2 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Newcastle
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Eddie Howe
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Pope | G |
| 67 | L. Miley | D |
| 12 | M. Thiaw | D |
| 4 | S. Botman | D |
| 33 | D. Burn | D |
| 8 | S. Tonali | M |
| 23 | J. Murphy | M |
| 28 | J. Willock | M |
| 39 | Bruno Guimaraes | M |
| 41 | J. Ramsey | M |
| 18 | W. Osula | F |
Substitutes
| 32 | A. Ramsdale | G |
| 2 | K. Trippier | D |
| 9 | Y. Wissa | F |
| 27 | N. Woltemade | F |
| 3 | L. Hall | D |
| 11 | H. Barnes | M |
| 20 | A. Elanga | F |
| 37 | A. Murphy | D |
| 62 | S. Neave | F |
Arsenal
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. Raya | G |
| 4 | B. White | D |
| 2 | W. Saliba | D |
| 6 | Gabriel | D |
| 5 | P. Hincapie | D |
| 8 | M. Odegaard | M |
| 36 | M. Zubimendi | M |
| 41 | D. Rice | M |
| 20 | N. Madueke | F |
| 29 | K. Havertz | F |
| 10 | E. Eze | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | K. Arrizabalaga | G |
| 9 | Gabriel Jesus | F |
| 14 | V. Gyökeres | F |
| 11 | G. Martinelli | F |
| 7 | B. Saka | F |
| 49 | M. Lewis-Skelly | D |
| 3 | C. Mosquera | D |
| 56 | M. Dowman | M |
| 19 | L. Trossard | F |