Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction

A-League · Regular Season - 23

Post on X

Wellington Phoenix

Away

AAMI Park, Melbourne

AI call Melbourne Victory to win or draw

72%

17%

11%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction: Sportiko gives Melbourne Victory a 72% chance of winning, Wellington Phoenix 11% and the draw 17%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:01.

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

Melbourne Victory to win or draw

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Melbourne Victory

DWDWW

Wellington Phoenix

LWLDW

Last 2 meetings Melbourne Victory · 2W 0D 0L

Match summary

In this upcoming A-League clash, Melbourne Victory hosts Wellington Phoenix, both teams aiming for crucial points in the playoff race. Melbourne Victory has shown a solid home record, winning 60% of their matches at AAMI Park this season, with a strong offense averaging 1.8 goals per game. Conversely, Wellington Phoenix struggles on the road, possessing only a 30% win rate away from home and conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. Key for Victory will be their ability to exploit Phoenix's defensive vulnerabilities, while Wellington will need to tighten their backline to stand a chance. Expect an intense matchup with potential playoff implications.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Wellington Phoenix goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	4	3	1
1	9	8	3	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	9	8	3	1
4	6	5	2	1
5	3	2	1

↑ Melbourne Victory goals · most likely 2–0 (11.5%)

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Players in form

Melbourne Victory

N. Vergos 7 gls

Clarismario Rodrigues 6 gls

Mata 5 gls

Wellington Phoenix

I. Eze 9 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix

2 Melbourne Victory Wins

0 Draws

0 Wellington Phoenix Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Feb 2026	Wellington Phoenix	2 - 3	Melbourne Victory
29 Dec 2025	Melbourne Victory	5 - 1	Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	A Viettel	D	1 - 1
09 Sep	A Sydney	W	0 - 2
08 Aug	A Western Sydney Wanderers	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Kingborough Lions	W	0 - 4
25 Apr	A Western Sydney Wanderers	W	0 - 2

Wellington Phoenix — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Apr	A Macarthur	L	4 - 0
18 Apr	H Western Sydney Wanderers	W	2 - 1
12 Apr	A Melbourne City	L	1 - 0
05 Apr	A Melbourne Victory	D	0 - 0
21 Mar	A Brisbane Roar	W	1 - 2

A-League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Newcastle Jets	26	15	3	8	55	39	+16	48
2	Adelaide United	26	12	7	7	46	36	+10	43
3	Auckland	26	11	9	6	42	29	+13	42
4	Melbourne Victory	26	11	7	8	44	33	+11	40
5	Sydney	26	11	6	9	33	25	+8	39
6	Melbourne City	26	10	8	8	33	33	0	38
7	Macarthur	26	9	7	10	37	44	-7	34
8	Wellington Phoenix	26	9	6	11	36	48	-12	33
9	Central Coast Mariners	26	8	8	10	35	42	-7	32
10	Perth Glory	26	8	7	11	32	39	-7	31
11	Brisbane Roar	26	6	8	12	27	36	-9	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers	26	5	6	15	27	43	-16	21

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.