New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 30

17 Oct 2026, 23:30

Post on X

New York Red Bulls

Home

23:30

17 Oct 2026

Toronto FC

Away

AI call Difficult New York Red Bulls win or draw

52%

26%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction: Sportiko gives New York Red Bulls a 52% chance of winning, Toronto FC 22% and the draw 26%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 13.9%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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New York Red Bulls

WWLDL

Toronto FC

LLWDD

Last 3 meetings New York Red Bulls · 1W 2D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

22%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toronto FC goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	8	4	1
1	14	12	5	2
2	11	9	4	1
3	5	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ New York Red Bulls goals · most likely 1–0 (13.9%)

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

31%

1.5

69%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

70% Home (No Draw) 30% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 22% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

31%

1.5

69%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

22%

26%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

50% Even Total Goals 50% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	8.0%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
1	13.9%	12.2%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.5%	9.3%	4.1%	1.2%	0.3%
3	5.3%	4.7%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.0%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

35%

23%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls	19.5%	9.8%	8.2%
Draw	22.9%	11.5%	9.6%
Toronto FC	9.6%	4.8%	4.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

1 New York Red Bulls Wins

2 Draws

0 Toronto FC Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Mar 2026	Toronto FC	1 - 1	New York Red Bulls
14 Sep 2013	New York Red Bulls	2 - 0	Toronto FC
20 Jul 2013	Toronto FC	0 - 0	New York Red Bulls

See all 6 meetings — Premium

New York Red Bulls — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A New York City FC	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Columbus Crew	W	0 - 1
10 Sep	A Los Angeles FC	L	2 - 0
06 Sep	A Seattle Sounders	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Philadelphia Union	L	1 - 3

Toronto FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A St. Louis City	L	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Orlando City SC	L	3 - 0
09 Sep	H Nashville SC	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Chicago Fire	D	4 - 4
29 Aug	H New York City FC	D	1 - 1

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	-3	32
11	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
12	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	-7	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.