St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26

Post on X

St. Louis City

Home

3 : 1

HT 1 - 0

Toronto FC

Away

AI call Difficult St. Louis City win or draw

59%

23%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

St. Louis City vs Toronto FC prediction: Sportiko gives St. Louis City a 59% chance of winning, Toronto FC 19% and the draw 23%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 02:40.

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Under 4.5 76%
1st Half Over 0.5 75%
Home/Draw & Over 1.5 70%

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Timeline

▮ 23'

Walker Zimmerman Yellow Card

Conrad Wallem Yellow Card

28' ▮

Carlo Holse assist: Alexandru Mățan

41' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Jeong Sang-bin ⇄ Simon Becher

46' ⇄

Tomas Totland assist: Alexandru Mățan

54' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 57'

Walker Zimmerman ⇄ Nickseon Gomis

⇄ 63'

Derrick Etienne ⇄ Zane Monlouis

⇄ 63'

Niklas Dorsch ⇄ Jonathan Osorio

⇄ 63'

Markus Cimermancic ⇄ Theo Corbeanu

Simon Becher assist: Conrad Wallem

68' ⚽ 3–0

Fallou Fall Yellow Card

73' ▮

▮ 74'

Alonso Coello Yellow Card

⇄ 75'

Josh Sargent ⇄ Lewis Morgan

Conrad Wallem ⇄ Dante Polvara

78' ⇄

Alexandru Mățan ⇄ Daniel Edelman

79' ⇄

Rafael Navarro ⇄ Damion Downs

85' ⇄

Damion Downs Goal Disallowed - video review

90' 🖵

Carlo Holse ⇄ Tomáš Ostrák

90+2' ⇄

⚽ 3–1 90+7'

Theo Corbeanu assist: Alonso Coello

FT 3–1

St. Louis City

Match Stats

Toronto FC

62% Ball Possession 38%

2.23 Expected Goals (xG) 0.58

17 Total Shots 9

8 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 6

14 Shots insidebox 4

3 Shots outsidebox 5

8 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 0

14 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

454 Total passes 277

385 Passes accurate 215

85% Passes % 78%

0.02 goals_prevented 0.02

St. Louis City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Carlo Holse F	9.7	92'	1	–	2	40 (33%)	2
23 Alexandru Mățan M	7.9	78'	–	2	2	32 (27%)	1
14 Tomas Totland M	7.5	94'	1	–	1	30 (25%)	–
11 Simon Becher F	7.3	49'	1	–	4	7 (5%)	–
1 Roman Bürki G	7.3	94'	–	–	–	32 (28%)	–
8 Christopher Durkin M	7.3	94'	–	–	–	42 (39%)	1
6 Conrad Wallem M	7.2	78'	–	1	–	33 (25%)	–
21 Dante Polvara M	6.9	16'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	–
27 Fallou Fall D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	53 (47%)	1
99 Jaziel Orozco D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	62 (58%)	1
24 Daniel Edelman M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–
42 Damion Downs F	6.7	11'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
32 Timo Baumgartl D	6.3	94'	–	–	1	64 (54%)	1
9 Rafael Navarro F	6.3	83'	–	–	1	20 (14%)	1
77 Jeong Sang-bin F	6.2	45'	–	–	1	16 (10%)	–
7 Tomáš Ostrák M	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–

Toronto FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Luka Gavran G	7.9	94'	–	–	–	28 (18%)	–
3 Matheus Pereira D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	30 (20%)	4
14 Alonso Coello M	7.0	94'	–	–	1	36 (31%)	3
90 Lewis Morgan F	6.9	20'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
6 Niklas Dorsch M	6.9	62'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	2
11 Derrick Etienne M	6.7	63'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
7 Theo Corbeanu F	6.7	32'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
71 Markus Cimermancic M	6.6	62'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	1
21 Jonathan Osorio M	6.5	32'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–
20 Dániel Sallói M	6.5	94'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–
22 Richie Laryea D	6.3	94'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	4
25 Walker Zimmerman D	6.3	56'	–	–	–	17 (12%)	–
13 Benjamin Kuscevic D	6.3	94'	–	–	1	26 (22%)	2
15 Nickseon Gomis D	6.3	38'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	2
12 Zane Monlouis D	6.2	31'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	1
9 Josh Sargent F	6.2	74'	–	–	–	17 (11%)	–

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult St. Louis City win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 10.1%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

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St. Louis City

WWWDW

Toronto FC

LLWDD

Live insights

90' Goal 85% sure

St. Louis City now leads 4-0 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

90' Goal 85% sure

St. Louis City now leads 3-1 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: St. Louis City leads 3-0. Win probability: 99.9%. Comeback chance: 0.1%.

70' Goal 85% sure

St. Louis City now leads 3-0 with 99.8% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 52.5%.

56' Goal 85% sure

St. Louis City now leads 2-0 with 96.3% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.3%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

59%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toronto FC goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	3	2	1
1	6	10	5	2	1
2	8	10	6	2	1
3	6	7	4	2	1
4	3	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

↑ St. Louis City goals · most likely 1–1 (10.1%)

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

23%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

96%

14%

1.5

86%

34%

2.5

66%

57%

3.5

43%

76%

4.5

24%

89%

5.5

11%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

23%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

37% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

59% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

96%

14%

1.5

86%

34%

2.5

66%

57%

3.5

43%

76%

4.5

24%

89%

5.5

11%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Exact Goals

21%

22%

19%

13%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.5%	2.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
1	6.3%	10.1%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
2	8.3%	9.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.7%
3	6.2%	7.4%	4.4%	1.8%	0.5%
4	3.4%	4.1%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

40%

1.5

60%

69%

2.5

31%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

16%

24%

29%

18%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	St. Louis City	Draw	Toronto FC
St. Louis City	41.8%	5.2%	2.4%
Draw	16.3%	12.5%	8.4%
Toronto FC	2.3%	2.9%	8.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

63%

2.5

37%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

27%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

67%

1.5

33%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: St. Louis City vs Toronto FC

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

St. Louis City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Toronto FC	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Colorado Rapids	W	0 - 3
13 Sep	H Minnesota United FC	W	4 - 2
10 Sep	A Portland Timbers	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Vancouver Whitecaps	W	1 - 3

Toronto FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A St. Louis City	L	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Orlando City SC	L	3 - 0
09 Sep	H Nashville SC	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Chicago Fire	D	4 - 4
29 Aug	H New York City FC	D	1 - 1

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
11	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	-5	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	-5	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Toronto FC

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Robin Fraser

1 Gavran

3 Pereira

13 Kuscevic

25 Zimmerman

22 Laryea

6 Dorsch

14 Coello

20 Sallói

71 Cimermancic

11 Etienne

9 Sargent

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luka Gavran	G
22	Richie Laryea	D
25	Walker Zimmerman	D
13	Benjamin Kuscevic	D
3	Matheus Pereira	D
14	Alonso Coello	M
6	Niklas Dorsch	M
11	Derrick Etienne	M
71	Markus Cimermancic	M
20	Dániel Sallói	M
9	Josh Sargent	F

Substitutes

23	William Yarbrough	G
38	Jackson Gilman	D
15	Nickseon Gomis	D
19	Kobe Franklin	D
12	Zane Monlouis	D
21	Jonathan Osorio	M
7	Theo Corbeanu	F
17	Emilio Aristizábal	F
90	Lewis Morgan	F

St. Louis City

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Yoann Damet

1 Bürki

27 Fall

32 Baumgartl

99 Orozco

14 Totland

23 Mățan

8 Durkin

6 Wallem

19 Holse

9 Navarro

77 Sang-bin

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Roman Bürki	G
99	Jaziel Orozco	D
32	Timo Baumgartl	D
27	Fallou Fall	D
6	Conrad Wallem	M
8	Christopher Durkin	M
23	Alexandru Mățan	M
14	Tomas Totland	M
77	Jeong Sang-bin	F
9	Rafael Navarro	F
19	Carlo Holse	F

Substitutes

39	Benjamin Lundt	G
5	Lukas MacNaughton	D
24	Daniel Edelman	M
21	Dante Polvara	M
59	Mykhi Joyner	M
7	Tomáš Ostrák	M
20	Rafael Santos	D
11	Simon Becher	F
42	Damion Downs	F