Toronto FC vs Charlotte Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 20

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Toronto FC

Home

3 : 3

HT 1 - 2

Charlotte

Away

AI call Charlotte or draw

32%

28%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Toronto FC vs Charlotte prediction: Sportiko gives Toronto FC a 32% chance of winning, Charlotte 40% and the draw 28%. Last updated 20 Aug 2026, 01:45.

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 8'

Rodolfo Aloko assist: Ashley Westwood

Markus Cimermancic assist: Josh Sargent

13' ⚽ 1–1

⚽ 1–2 20'

Idan Toklomati assist: Liel Abada

HT 1–2

Walker Zimmerman Red Card

56' ▮

⚽ 1–3 58'

Henry Kessler assist: Ashley Westwood

Alonso Coello ⇄ Matheus Pereira

60' ⇄

⇄ 69'

Rodolfo Aloko ⇄ Tyger Smalls

⇄ 69'

Liel Abada ⇄ Allan Saint-Maximin

Dániel Sallói assist: Theo Corbeanu

76' ⚽ 2–3

⇄ 79'

Idan Toklomati ⇄ Archie Goodwin

⇄ 79'

Pep Biel ⇄ Luca De La Torre

Markus Cimermancic ⇄ Derrick Etienne

82' ⇄

Benjamin Kuscevic ⇄ Zane Monlouis

83' ⇄

Matheus Pereira Yellow Card

85' ▮

Niklas Dorsch assist: Derrick Etienne

90' ⚽ 3–3

⇄ 90+4'

Brandt Bronico ⇄ Djibril Diani

Niklas Dorsch ⇄ Kobe Franklin

90+5' ⇄

FT 3–3

Toronto FC

Match Stats

Charlotte

46% Ball Possession 54%

1.86 Expected Goals (xG) 1.16

15 Total Shots 13

5 Shots on Goal 9

6 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 0

9 Shots insidebox 10

6 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 3

0 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 0

1 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 2

400 Total passes 486

356 Passes accurate 440

89% Passes % 91%

-0.46 goals_prevented -0.46

Toronto FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
6 Niklas Dorsch M	7.9	92'	1	–	2	51 (49%)	2
7 Theo Corbeanu M	7.6	92'	–	1	1	27 (25%)	1
71 Markus Cimermancic M	7.3	82'	1	–	2	25 (21%)	–
9 Josh Sargent F	6.9	92'	–	1	2	16 (14%)	–
13 Benjamin Kuscevic D	6.9	83'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	3
11 Derrick Etienne F	6.7	10'	–	1	–	8 (6%)	–
1 Luka Gavran G	6.7	92'	–	–	–	32 (27%)	–
22 Richie Laryea D	6.6	92'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	3
14 Alonso Coello M	6.6	60'	–	–	–	37 (34%)	1
3 Matheus Pereira D	6.6	32'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	2
20 Dániel Sallói M	6.5	92'	1	–	2	20 (13%)	–
12 Zane Monlouis D	6.3	9'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
38 Jackson Gilman D	6.3	92'	–	–	–	34 (33%)	2
25 Walker Zimmerman D	5.9	56'	–	–	1	53 (48%)	–

Charlotte

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
37 Rodolfo Aloko F	8.3	69'	1	–	1	14 (13%)	1
22 Henry Kessler D	8.2	92'	1	–	2	84 (79%)	2
8 Ashley Westwood M	7.3	92'	–	2	–	75 (70%)	–
9 Idan Toklomati F	7.0	79'	1	–	2	11 (11%)	–
10 Allan Saint-Maximin F	6.9	23'	–	–	2	8 (8%)	–
3 Tim Ream D	6.7	92'	–	–	–	62 (59%)	–
17 Luca De La Torre M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	–
35 Will Cleary D	6.5	92'	–	–	1	40 (38%)	1
16 Pep Biel M	6.5	79'	–	–	1	37 (34%)	–
7 Archie Goodwin F	6.5	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	1
1 Kristijan Kahlina G	6.3	92'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	–
25 Tyger Smalls F	6.3	23'	–	–	1	7 (7%)	1
11 Liel Abada F	6.2	69'	–	1	2	14 (6%)	–
23 David Schnegg D	6.2	92'	–	–	1	43 (34%)	–
13 Brandt Bronico M	6.0	92'	–	–	–	42 (36%)	1

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Charlotte or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Toronto FC

LLWDD

Charlotte

WDWDW

Last 1 meetings Toronto FC · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

32%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

40%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Charlotte goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	13	11	5	2	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Toronto FC goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

73% Away (No Draw) 27% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 6% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 19% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	13.3%	11.0%	5.4%	2.0%
1	6.7%	13.8%	9.0%	4.5%	1.7%
2	3.4%	5.0%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
3	0.9%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

33%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toronto FC	Draw	Charlotte
Toronto FC	9.8%	3.4%	1.8%
Draw	9.1%	20.0%	18.7%
Charlotte	1.2%	4.2%	31.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toronto FC vs Charlotte

0 Toronto FC Wins

0 Draws

1 Charlotte Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 May 2026	Charlotte	3 - 1	Toronto FC

Toronto FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A St. Louis City	L	3 - 1
12 Sep	A Orlando City SC	L	3 - 0
09 Sep	H Nashville SC	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Chicago Fire	D	4 - 4
29 Aug	H New York City FC	D	1 - 1

Charlotte — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A DC United	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A FC Cincinnati	D	3 - 3
09 Sep	A CF Montreal	W	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Houston Dynamo	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	A Atlanta United FC	W	0 - 2

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	-3	32
11	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
12	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	-7	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Toronto FC

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Robin Fraser

1 Gavran

38 Gilman

13 Kuscevic

25 Zimmerman

22 Laryea

6 Dorsch

14 Coello

20 Sallói

71 Cimermancic

7 Corbeanu

9 Sargent

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luka Gavran	G
22	Richie Laryea	D
25	Walker Zimmerman	D
13	Benjamin Kuscevic	D
38	Jackson Gilman	D
14	Alonso Coello	M
6	Niklas Dorsch	M
7	Theo Corbeanu	M
71	Markus Cimermancic	M
20	Dániel Sallói	M
9	Josh Sargent	F

Substitutes

23	William Yarbrough	G
12	Zane Monlouis	D
19	Kobe Franklin	D
44	Raheem Edwards	D
78	Malik Henry	M
3	Matheus Pereira	D
11	Derrick Etienne	F
99	Jules-Anthony Vilsaint	F
17	Emilio Aristizábal	F

Charlotte

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Dean Smith

1 Kahlina

23 Schnegg

3 Ream

22 Kessler

35 Cleary

13 Bronico

16 Biel

8 Westwood

11 Abada

9 Toklomati

37 Aloko

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kristijan Kahlina	G
35	Will Cleary	D
22	Henry Kessler	D
3	Tim Ream	D
23	David Schnegg	D
8	Ashley Westwood	M
16	Pep Biel	M
13	Brandt Bronico	M
37	Rodolfo Aloko	F
9	Idan Toklomati	F
11	Liel Abada	F

Substitutes

21	Tyler Miller	G
14	Nathan Byrne	D
4	Andrew Privett	D
44	Morrison Agyemang	D
17	Luca De La Torre	M
28	Djibril Diani	M
10	Allan Saint-Maximin	F
7	Archie Goodwin	F
25	Tyger Smalls	F