Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 20

Post on X

Philadelphia Union

Home

2 : 2

HT 1 - 2

Inter Miami

Away

AI call Inter Miami or draw

32%

24%

44%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami prediction: Sportiko gives Philadelphia Union a 32% chance of winning, Inter Miami 44% and the draw 24%. Last updated 20 Aug 2026, 01:50.

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Timeline

Indiana Vassilev assist: Frankie Westfield

11' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 21'

Daniel Pinter assist: Luis Suárez

⚽ 1–2 26'

Lionel Messi assist: Ian Fray

Kai Wagner Yellow Card

43' ▮

HT 1–2

▮ 50'

Sergio Reguilón Yellow Card

▮ 55'

Ian Fray Yellow Card

Neil Pierre assist: Milan Iloski

58' ⚽ 2–2

Milan Iloski Goal Disallowed - offside

62' 🖵

Indiana Vassilev ⇄ Quinn Sullivan

68' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Sergio Reguilón ⇄ Noah Allen

⇄ 73'

Telasco Segovia ⇄ David Ayala

Bruno Damiani ⇄ Ezekiel Alladoh

82' ⇄

Jesus Bueno ⇄ Alejandro Bedoya

82' ⇄

Milan Iloski Yellow Card

87' ▮

Ezekiel Alladoh Yellow Card

90+5' ▮

⇄ 90+9'

Daniel Pinter ⇄ David Ruíz

Quinn Sullivan Yellow Card

90+13' ▮

Cavan Sullivan Red Card

90+13' ▮

▮ 90+13'

Yannick Bright Red Card

FT 2–2

Philadelphia Union

Match Stats

Inter Miami

42% Ball Possession 58%

2.57 Expected Goals (xG) 1.48

16 Total Shots 5

6 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 0

5 Blocked Shots 2

13 Shots insidebox 3

3 Shots outsidebox 2

4 Corner Kicks 1

3 Offsides 3

16 Fouls 13

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

278 Total passes 408

220 Passes accurate 330

79% Passes % 81%

0.42 goals_prevented 0.42

Philadelphia Union

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Milan Iloski F	7.7	91'	–	1	2	21 (19%)	–
19 Indiana Vassilev M	7.6	68'	1	–	2	21 (18%)	2
39 Frankie Westfield D	7.5	91'	–	1	–	24 (18%)	1
9 Bruno Damiani F	7.5	82'	–	–	1	16 (11%)	–
44 Neil Pierre D	7.3	91'	1	–	2	24 (18%)	1
21 Danley Jean Jacques M	7.2	91'	–	–	1	33 (29%)	4
6 Cavan Sullivan M	7.2	91'	–	–	2	21 (13%)	4
27 Kai Wagner D	6.9	91'	–	–	1	35 (26%)	–
8 Jesus Bueno M	6.9	82'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	1
18 Andre Blake G	6.7	91'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	–
11 Alejandro Bedoya M	6.5	9'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
33 Quinn Sullivan M	6.5	23'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	–
23 Ezekiel Alladoh F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
26 Nathan Harriel D	6.2	91'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	–

Inter Miami

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lionel Messi F	9.0	91'	1	–	1	25 (21%)	1
5 Casemiro M	8.0	91'	–	–	–	55 (45%)	–
97 Dayne St. Clair G	7.7	91'	–	–	–	23 (15%)	–
56 Daniel Pinter F	6.9	91'	1	–	2	28 (23%)	1
42 Yannick Bright M	6.7	91'	–	–	–	43 (36%)	1
32 Noah Allen D	6.7	18'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
37 Maximiliano Falcón D	6.7	91'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	1
22 David Ayala M	6.7	18'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
9 Luis Suárez F	6.6	91'	–	1	–	40 (28%)	–
17 Ian Fray D	6.3	91'	–	1	–	40 (34%)	–
3 Sergio Reguilón D	6.2	73'	–	–	–	40 (28%)	–
8 Telasco Segovia M	6.2	73'	–	–	–	32 (27%)	1
2 Gonzalo Luján D	6.2	91'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	–

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Confidence Low (44%)

At a glance

Our lean

Inter Miami or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.7%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

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Philadelphia Union

WWWWW

Inter Miami

DWDDD

Last 1 meetings Philadelphia Union · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

32%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

44%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Inter Miami goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	9	6	3	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Philadelphia Union goals · most likely 1–1 (11.7%)

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Players in form

Philadelphia Union

M. Iloski 13 gls

Inter Miami

L. Messi 20 gls

L. Suárez 12 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

32%

Draw

24%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

32%

Draw

24%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

73% Away (No Draw) 27% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 21% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.9%	9.0%	5.8%	2.8%
1	4.0%	11.7%	10.0%	6.5%	3.2%
2	3.0%	5.8%	5.6%	3.6%	1.8%
3	1.1%	2.2%	2.1%	1.4%	0.7%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union	9.9%	3.2%	2.0%
Draw	8.9%	14.5%	15.5%
Inter Miami	2.1%	5.2%	38.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

15%

28%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami

0 Philadelphia Union Wins

0 Draws

1 Inter Miami Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 May 2026	Inter Miami	5 - 4	Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Sporting Kansas City	W	3 - 4
14 Sep	A San Diego	W	0 - 5
09 Sep	H FC Cincinnati	W	5 - 0
05 Sep	H CF Montreal	W	2 - 0
29 Aug	A New York Red Bulls	W	1 - 3

Inter Miami — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H San Diego	D	2 - 2
17 Sep	H Cruz Azul	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Nashville SC	D	2 - 2
10 Sep	A Chicago Fire	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H Atlanta United FC	D	2 - 2

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
11	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	-5	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	-5	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Inter Miami

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Guillermo Hoyos Angel

97 Clair

3 Reguilón

37 Falcón

2 Luján

17 Fray

8 Segovia

5 Casemiro

42 Bright

56 Pinter

9 Suárez

10 Messi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
97	Dayne St. Clair	G
17	Ian Fray	D
2	Gonzalo Luján	D
37	Maximiliano Falcón	D
3	Sergio Reguilón	D
42	Yannick Bright	M
5	Casemiro	M
8	Telasco Segovia	M
10	Lionel Messi	F
9	Luis Suárez	F
56	Daniel Pinter	F

Substitutes

34	Rocco Ríos Novo	G
15	Fricio Caicedo	D
32	Noah Allen	D
4	Facundo Mura	D
88	Alexander Shaw	M
59	Preston Plambeck	M
41	David Ruíz	M
22	David Ayala	M
54	Lovens Delinois	F

Philadelphia Union

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Ryan Richter

18 Blake

27 Wagner

26 Harriel

44 Pierre

39 Westfield

19 Vassilev

8 Bueno

21 Jacques

6 Sullivan

10 Iloski

9 Damiani

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
18	Andre Blake	G
39	Frankie Westfield	D
44	Neil Pierre	D
26	Nathan Harriel	D
27	Kai Wagner	D
6	Cavan Sullivan	M
21	Danley Jean Jacques	M
8	Jesus Bueno	M
19	Indiana Vassilev	M
9	Bruno Damiani	F
10	Milan Iloski	F

Substitutes

76	Andrew Rick	G
5	Japhet Sery Larsen	D
11	Alejandro Bedoya	M
28	Agustin Anello	F
33	Quinn Sullivan	M
16	Ben Bender	M
14	Jeremy Rafanello	M
51	Malik Jakupovic	F
23	Ezekiel Alladoh	F