St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18

Post on X

Real Salt Lake

Away

AI call St. Louis City or draw

49%

26%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake prediction: Sportiko gives St. Louis City a 49% chance of winning, Real Salt Lake 25% and the draw 26%. Last updated 2 Aug 2026, 02:34.

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Under 3.5 Goals 73%

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Timeline

▮ 6'

Zach Booth Yellow Card

Eduard Löwen Yellow Card

28' ▮

▮ 29'

Philip Quinton Yellow Card

▮ 40'

DeAndre Yedlin Yellow Card

Christopher Durkin Yellow Card

43' ▮

⇄ 45+1'

Griffin Dillon ⇄ Stijn Spierings

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Lineker Rodrigues ⇄ Saba Lobzhanidze

⚽ 0–1 60'

Sergi Solans assist: Saba Lobzhanidze

Eduard Löwen ⇄ Marcel Hartel

65' ⇄

Christopher Durkin ⇄ Alexandru Mățan

65' ⇄

Marcel Hartel

73' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 79'

Diego Luna ⇄ Victor Olatunji

Jeong Sang-bin Yellow Card

80' ▮

Jeong Sang-bin ⇄ Tomáš Ostrák

84' ⇄

⇄ 90+1'

Sergi Solans ⇄ Aiden Hezarkhani

⇄ 90+1'

Zach Booth ⇄ Dominik Marczuk

FT 1–1

St. Louis City

Match Stats

Real Salt Lake

67% Ball Possession 33%

1.71 Expected Goals (xG) 1.24

20 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 2

10 Blocked Shots 3

11 Shots insidebox 5

9 Shots outsidebox 3

9 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 1

12 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

651 Total passes 317

576 Passes accurate 250

88% Passes % 79%

-0.46 goals_prevented -0.46

St. Louis City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Eduard Löwen F	7.7	65'	–	–	1	67 (58%)	1
32 Timo Baumgartl D	7.5	94'	–	–	–	80 (78%)	2
17 Marcel Hartel M	7.5	29'	1	–	4	11 (6%)	–
23 Alexandru Mățan M	7.5	29'	–	–	1	20 (18%)	–
6 Conrad Wallem M	7.3	94'	–	–	2	54 (49%)	1
1 Roman Bürki G	7.3	94'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	–
5 Lukas MacNaughton D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	87 (78%)	1
24 Daniel Edelman M	7.2	94'	–	–	–	67 (53%)	1
21 Dante Polvara D	7.0	94'	–	–	–	86 (80%)	2
8 Christopher Durkin M	6.9	65'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	2
14 Tomas Totland M	6.6	94'	–	–	–	43 (40%)	–
77 Jeong Sang-bin F	6.5	84'	–	–	–	42 (38%)	1
11 Simon Becher F	6.3	94'	–	–	1	23 (16%)	–
7 Tomáš Ostrák M	6.3	10'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–

Real Salt Lake

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
29 Sam Junqua D	7.9	94'	–	–	1	36 (32%)	3
22 Sergi Solans F	7.3	91'	1	–	1	10 (7%)	1
2 DeAndre Yedlin D	7.2	94'	–	–	1	29 (26%)	3
26 Philip Quinton D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	37 (29%)	–
6 Stijn Spierings M	6.9	48'	–	–	1	20 (20%)	1
17 Victor Olatunji F	6.7	16'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
70 Lineker Rodrigues F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	1
92 Noel Caliskan M	6.6	94'	–	–	–	47 (39%)	1
12 Saba Lobzhanidze M	6.6	49'	–	1	1	10 (6%)	–
10 Diego Luna F	6.3	78'	–	–	–	20 (12%)	–
27 Griffin Dillon M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	1
8 Juan Sanabria M	6.2	94'	–	–	–	29 (20%)	1
23 Zach Booth M	6.2	91'	–	–	–	19 (13%)	1
1 Rafael Cabral G	5.9	94'	–	–	–	23 (13%)	–
11 Dominik Marczuk F	—	3'	–	–	–	–	–
39 Aiden Hezarkhani F	—	3'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Low (49%)

At a glance

Our lean

St. Louis City or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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St. Louis City

WWWDW

Real Salt Lake

LLLLD

Match summary

In this MLS match, St. Louis City will face Real Salt Lake. St. Louis has shown a strong offensive presence this season, averaging 1.8 goals per match, while their defense has conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Real Salt Lake, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, recording an average of 1.3 goals scored per match and 1.5 goals conceded. The tactical matchup will likely hinge on St. Louis's ability to exploit defensive lapses from Real Salt Lake, particularly in transition. With both teams aiming for playoff positioning, the stakes are high.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

49%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

25%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Salt Lake goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	5	3	1
1	10	13	6	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ St. Louis City goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Players in form

St. Louis City

Rafael Navarro 14 gls

Real Salt Lake

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

72% Home (No Draw) 28% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	5.3%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%
1	10.3%	13.1%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%
2	10.0%	9.8%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.6%	5.5%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.4%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	St. Louis City	Draw	Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City	30.7%	3.7%	1.2%
Draw	20.1%	17.2%	8.3%
Real Salt Lake	2.9%	4.4%	11.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

St. Louis City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Toronto FC	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Colorado Rapids	W	0 - 3
13 Sep	H Minnesota United FC	W	4 - 2
10 Sep	A Portland Timbers	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Vancouver Whitecaps	W	1 - 3

Real Salt Lake — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	A Seattle Sounders	L	2 - 0
20 Sep	H Vancouver Whitecaps	L	0 - 3
13 Sep	H New York City FC	L	0 - 2
10 Sep	A Houston Dynamo	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Los Angeles FC	D	2 - 2

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
11	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	-5	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	-5	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Real Salt Lake

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Pablo Mastroeni

1 Cabral

29 Junqua

26 Quinton

2 Yedlin

8 Sanabria

92 Caliskan

27 Dillon

23 Booth

10 Luna

22 Solans

70 Rodrigues

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Rafael Cabral	G
2	DeAndre Yedlin	D
26	Philip Quinton	D
29	Sam Junqua	D
23	Zach Booth	M
27	Griffin Dillon	M
92	Noel Caliskan	M
8	Juan Sanabria	M
10	Diego Luna	F
70	Lineker Rodrigues	F
22	Sergi Solans	F

Substitutes

6	Stijn Spierings	M
31	Mason Stajduhar	G
4	Lukas Engel	D
98	Alexandros Katranis	D
21	Juan Jose Arias	D
11	Dominik Marczuk	F
12	Saba Lobzhanidze	M
17	Victor Olatunji	F
39	Aiden Hezarkhani	F

St. Louis City

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Yoann Damet

1 Bürki

21 Polvara

32 Baumgartl

5 MacNaughton

14 Totland

8 Durkin

24 Edelman

6 Wallem

10 Löwen

77 Sang-bin

11 Becher

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Roman Bürki	G
5	Lukas MacNaughton	D
32	Timo Baumgartl	D
21	Dante Polvara	D
6	Conrad Wallem	M
24	Daniel Edelman	M
8	Christopher Durkin	M
14	Tomas Totland	M
77	Jeong Sang-bin	F
10	Eduard Löwen	F
11	Simon Becher	F

Substitutes

39	Benjamin Lundt	G
27	Fallou Fall	D
23	Alexandru Mățan	M
28	Miguel Perez	M
59	Mykhi Joyner	M
7	Tomáš Ostrák	M
20	Rafael Santos	D
17	Marcel Hartel	M
29	Palmer Ault	M