FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18

Post on X

San Jose Earthquakes

Away

AI call FC Cincinnati or draw

47%

24%

29%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Sportiko gives FC Cincinnati a 47% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes 29% and the draw 24%. Last updated 2 Aug 2026, 03:43.

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Away to Score 75%
1st Half Home or Draw 76%

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Timeline

Kyle Smith Yellow Card

20' ▮

⚽ 0–1 26'

Daniel Munie assist: Timo Werner

Bryan Ramirez assist: Evander

34' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Nick Fernandez ⇄ Ian Harkes

⚽ 1–2 57'

Timo Werner assist: Preston Judd

⇄ 60'

Vitor Costa ⇄ Jamar Ricketts

Kenji Mboma Dem ⇄ Tom Barlow

70' ⇄

Kyle Smith ⇄ Teenage Hadebe

70' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Ousseni Bouda ⇄ Jack Skahan

Tom Barlow assist: Evander

80' ⚽ 2–2

Evander assist: Obinna Nwobodo

82' ⚽ 3–2

⇄ 82'

Benjamin Kikanović ⇄ Jack Jasinski

⇄ 82'

Ronaldo Vieira ⇄ Dave Romney

Pavel Bucha Yellow Card

87' ▮

Ender Echenique ⇄ Alvas Powell

88' ⇄

Obinna Nwobodo ⇄ Tah Anunga

88' ⇄

Miles Robinson Yellow Card

89' ▮

Kévin Denkey ⇄ Ayoub Jabbari

90+3' ⇄

90+6' ⚽ 4–2

FT 4–2

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

FC Cincinnati or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.3%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

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FC Cincinnati

DDLLD

San Jose Earthquakes

DWWDD

Match summary

FC Cincinnati will face the San Jose Earthquakes in an intriguing MLS matchup. Cincinnati has shown a solid home performance this season, leveraging their attacking prowess, with an average of 2.1 goals scored per game. Conversely, San Jose has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Key players to watch include Cincinnati's leading scorer, who has been vital in their offensive setup, and San Jose's playmaker, who can create opportunities despite their defensive frailties. The match promises to be a battle of Cincinnati's attack against San Jose's inconsistent defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

47%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

29%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

San Jose Earthquakes goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	5	4	2	1
1	6	12	8	4	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	4	5	4	2	1
4	2	2	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ FC Cincinnati goals · most likely 1–1 (12.3%)

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Players in form

FC Cincinnati

K. Denkey 14 gls

Evander 12 gls

San Jose Earthquakes

P. Judd 13 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Away Win

29%

Draw

24%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Away Win

29%

Draw

24%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

59% Home (No Draw) 41% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 30% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	5.0%	4.5%	2.1%	0.7%
1	6.4%	12.3%	7.6%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	9.2%	6.4%	3.0%	1.0%
3	3.7%	5.2%	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

48%

1.5

52%

76%

2.5

24%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Cincinnati	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati	27.3%	4.9%	2.3%
Draw	14.4%	15.5%	11.4%
San Jose Earthquakes	2.5%	4.4%	17.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

FC Cincinnati — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Houston Dynamo	D	2 - 2
12 Sep	H Charlotte	D	3 - 3
09 Sep	A Philadelphia Union	L	5 - 0
30 Aug	A Nashville SC	L	4 - 0
22 Aug	H Seattle Sounders	D	1 - 1

San Jose Earthquakes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Los Angeles FC	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Houston Dynamo	W	1 - 0
10 Sep	A San Diego	W	2 - 3
06 Sep	A Austin	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Houston Dynamo	D	0 - 0

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	-3	32
11	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
12	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	-7	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

San Jose Earthquakes

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Bruce Arena

1 Gunn

28 Kikanović

5 Munie

18 Roberts

87 Costa

20 Fernandez

14 Vieira

34 Leroux

7 Bouda

19 Judd

11 Werner

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Angus Gunn	G
87	Vitor Costa	D
18	Reid Roberts	D
5	Daniel Munie	D
28	Benjamin Kikanović	D
34	Beau Leroux	M
14	Ronaldo Vieira	M
20	Nick Fernandez	M
11	Timo Werner	F
19	Preston Judd	F
7	Ousseni Bouda	F

Substitutes

31	Francesco Montali	G
17	Jack Jasinski	D
4	Dave Romney	D
2	Jamar Ricketts	D
79	Darius Johnson	F
6	Ian Harkes	M
16	Jack Skahan	M
3	Paul Marie	D
9	Luka Jovanovic	F

FC Cincinnati

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Pat Noonan

18 Celentano

11 Gidi

12 Robinson

24 Smith

29 Ramirez

5 Nwobodo

20 Bucha

66 Echenique

10 Evander

9 Denkey

17 Dem

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
18	Roman Celentano	G
24	Kyle Smith	D
12	Miles Robinson	D
11	Samuel Gidi	D
66	Ender Echenique	M
20	Pavel Bucha	M
5	Obinna Nwobodo	M
29	Bryan Ramirez	M
10	Evander	F
17	Kenji Mboma Dem	F
9	Kévin Denkey	F

Substitutes

13	Evan Louro	G
4	Nick Hagglund	D
88	Andrei Chirila	D
15	Teenage Hadebe	D
2	Alvas Powell	D
27	Tah Anunga	M
99	Ayoub Jabbari	F
16	Tom Barlow	F
14	Kristian Fletcher	F