Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 17

Post on X

Real Salt Lake

Away

AI call Real Salt Lake or draw

30%

27%

43%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake prediction: Sportiko gives Portland Timbers a 30% chance of winning, Real Salt Lake 43% and the draw 27%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 04:40.

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Timeline

Cole Bassett Yellow Card

10' ▮

⚽ 0–1 18'

Juan Sanabria assist: Morgan Guilavogui

▮ 34'

Morgan Guilavogui Red Card

Diego Chará Yellow Card

41' ▮

HT 0–1

▮ 55'

Sergi Solans Yellow Card

Felipe Mora assist: Ariel Lassiter

56' ⚽ 1–1

Ariel Lassiter ⇄ Antony Alves

57' ⇄

⇄ 58'

DeAndre Yedlin ⇄ Sam Junqua

Felipe Mora assist: Kristoffer Velde

67' ⚽ 2–1

Diego Chará ⇄ José Caicedo

72' ⇄

Felipe Mora ⇄ Alexander Aravena

72' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Diego Luna ⇄ Saba Lobzhanidze

⇄ 74'

Sergi Solans ⇄ Victor Olatunji

⇄ 74'

Lukas Engel ⇄ Juan Jose Arias

⇄ 85'

Juan Sanabria ⇄ Alexandros Katranis

Cole Bassett ⇄ Joao Ortíz

86' ⇄

FT 2–1

Portland Timbers

Match Stats

Real Salt Lake

61% Ball Possession 39%

2.58 Expected Goals (xG) 0.15

22 Total Shots 6

6 Shots on Goal 2

8 Shots off Goal 4

8 Blocked Shots 0

17 Shots insidebox 2

5 Shots outsidebox 4

13 Corner Kicks 5

4 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 13

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

518 Total passes 338

457 Passes accurate 264

88% Passes % 78%

0.68 goals_prevented 0.68

Portland Timbers

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
99 Kristoffer Velde M	8.3	95'	–	1	4	35 (28%)	2
9 Felipe Mora F	8.2	72'	2	–	3	6 (4%)	–
4 Kamal Miller D	7.7	95'	–	–	–	79 (71%)	2
7 Ariel Lassiter M	7.3	57'	–	1	–	20 (17%)	–
10 David Pereira Da Costa M	7.2	95'	–	–	1	57 (54%)	2
21 Diego Chará M	7.2	72'	–	–	–	39 (37%)	1
20 Finn Surman D	7.0	95'	–	–	–	69 (64%)	–
5 Brandon Bye D	7.0	95'	–	–	–	60 (49%)	1
30 José Caicedo M	6.9	23'	–	–	1	12 (12%)	2
27 Jímer Fory D	6.7	95'	–	–	1	56 (45%)	2
11 Antony Alves F	6.7	38'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
28 Alexander Aravena F	6.7	23'	–	–	2	6 (6%)	–
41 James Pantemis G	6.6	95'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	–
80 Joao Ortíz M	6.3	9'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
17 Cole Bassett M	5.9	86'	–	–	2	40 (34%)	–

Real Salt Lake

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Juan Sanabria M	7.9	85'	1	–	1	34 (28%)	2
1 Rafael Cabral G	7.6	95'	–	–	–	36 (22%)	–
26 Philip Quinton D	7.2	95'	–	–	–	35 (25%)	1
92 Noel Caliskan M	7.2	95'	–	–	1	49 (40%)	1
2 DeAndre Yedlin D	7.0	58'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	3
6 Stijn Spierings M	6.9	95'	–	–	1	33 (30%)	3
10 Diego Luna F	6.9	74'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	1
29 Sam Junqua D	6.7	37'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
21 Juan Jose Arias D	6.6	21'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
98 Alexandros Katranis D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
4 Lukas Engel D	6.5	74'	–	–	1	41 (33%)	1
72 Zavier Gozo M	6.3	95'	–	–	1	21 (14%)	4
17 Victor Olatunji F	6.3	21'	–	–	–	2	–
22 Sergi Solans F	6.2	74'	–	–	1	11 (8%)	–
12 Saba Lobzhanidze M	6.2	21'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
9 Morgan Guilavogui F	5.7	34'	–	1	–	8 (7%)	1

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Our lean

Real Salt Lake or draw

Most likely score

0:1 · 15.5%

Both teams to score

40%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

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Portland Timbers

LLDWL

Real Salt Lake

LLLLD

Last 3 meetings Portland Timbers · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming MLS matchup, the Portland Timbers will face Real Salt Lake. Historically, the Timbers have a solid home record, with an average of 1.7 goals scored per game in their last 10 home fixtures, while conceding 1.2 goals. Real Salt Lake's away form has been inconsistent, averaging 1.1 goals per game and allowing 1.5. Key players to watch include Portland's top scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and RSL's midfield playmaker, known for his creativity and assists. This clash could hinge on the Timbers' ability to exploit their home advantage against a struggling RSL defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

30%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

43%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Salt Lake goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	13	16	12	6	2	1
1	7	13	9	4	1
2	3	4	3	1	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Portland Timbers goals · most likely 0–1 (15.5%)

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

76% Away (No Draw) 24% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 5% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 17% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

22%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.5%	15.5%	12.2%	5.8%	2.1%
1	6.8%	13.5%	8.5%	4.1%	1.5%
2	2.9%	4.2%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
3	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

38%

35%

20%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Portland Timbers	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Portland Timbers	9.5%	3.1%	1.2%
Draw	7.3%	21.0%	15.8%
Real Salt Lake	0.8%	4.1%	37.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake

0 Portland Timbers Wins

0 Draws

3 Real Salt Lake Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 May 2026	Real Salt Lake	2 - 0	Portland Timbers
25 Nov 2013	Portland Timbers	0 - 1	Real Salt Lake
11 Nov 2013	Real Salt Lake	4 - 2	Portland Timbers

See all 9 meetings — Premium

Portland Timbers — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Atlanta United FC	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A FC Dallas	L	2 - 1
10 Sep	H St. Louis City	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	H Minnesota United FC	W	5 - 4
30 Aug	H Austin	L	1 - 2

Real Salt Lake — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	A Seattle Sounders	L	2 - 0
20 Sep	H Vancouver Whitecaps	L	0 - 3
13 Sep	H New York City FC	L	0 - 2
10 Sep	A Houston Dynamo	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Los Angeles FC	D	2 - 2

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
11	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	-5	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	-5	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

Real Salt Lake

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Pablo Mastroeni

1 Cabral

4 Engel

26 Quinton

2 Yedlin

8 Sanabria

92 Caliskan

6 Spierings

72 Gozo

9 Guilavogui

22 Solans

10 Luna

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Rafael Cabral	G
2	DeAndre Yedlin	D
26	Philip Quinton	D
4	Lukas Engel	D
72	Zavier Gozo	M
6	Stijn Spierings	M
92	Noel Caliskan	M
8	Juan Sanabria	M
10	Diego Luna	F
22	Sergi Solans	F
9	Morgan Guilavogui	F

Substitutes

31	Mason Stajduhar	G
21	Juan Jose Arias	D
98	Alexandros Katranis	D
29	Sam Junqua	D
12	Saba Lobzhanidze	M
23	Zach Booth	M
27	Griffin Dillon	M
7	Pablo Ruíz	M
17	Victor Olatunji	F