Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Prediction

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 16

Post on X

New York City FC

Away

AI call Difficult Columbus Crew win or draw

52%

29%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Columbus Crew vs New York City FC prediction: Sportiko gives Columbus Crew a 52% chance of winning, New York City FC 20% and the draw 29%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 28'

Nicolás Fernández Penalty

▮ 40'

Tayvon Gray Yellow Card

HT 0–1

⇄ 55'

Malachi Jones ⇄ Talles Magno

⇄ 55'

Bénie Traoré ⇄ Hannes Wolf

Jamal Thiaré Yellow Card

57' ▮

Maximilian Arfsten Yellow Card

60' ▮

Tarun Karumanchi ⇄ Hugo Picard

63' ⇄

Malte Amundsen ⇄ Steven Moreira

64' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 70'

Agustin Ojeda assist: Talles Magno

Sekou Tidiany Bangoura ⇄ Dylan Chambost

74' ⇄

Jamal Thiaré ⇄ Dániel Gazdag

75' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Jonathan Shore ⇄ Kevin Pierre

Taha Habroune Yellow Card

82' ▮

⇄ 83'

Nico Cavallo ⇄ Máximo Carrizo

Nariman Akhundzade

83' ⇄

Dániel Gazdag Penalty

90+3' ⚽ 1–2

▮ 90+5'

James Sands Yellow Card

FT 1–2

Columbus Crew

Match Stats

New York City FC

59% Ball Possession 41%

1.67 Expected Goals (xG) 1.41

11 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 5

6 Shots off Goal 2

1 Blocked Shots 1

5 Shots insidebox 7

6 Shots outsidebox 1

3 Corner Kicks 0

Offsides

7 Fouls 11

3 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

572 Total passes 406

508 Passes accurate 339

89% Passes % 83%

-0.02 goals_prevented -0.02

Columbus Crew

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Taha Habroune F	7.3	96'	–	–	4	46 (39%)	4
8 Dániel Gazdag M	7.3	21'	1	–	1	5 (5%)	–
18 Malte Amundsen D	7.2	64'	–	–	–	35 (32%)	2
17 Sekou Tidiany Bangoura M	7.0	74'	–	–	–	47 (38%)	3
28 Patrick Schulte G	6.9	96'	–	–	–	54 (48%)	–
50 Tarun Karumanchi M	6.7	63'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	2
46 Chase Adams F	6.7	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
23 Mohamed Farsi D	6.6	96'	–	–	1	41 (34%)	3
31 Steven Moreira D	6.5	32'	–	–	–	21 (19%)	1
27 Maximilian Arfsten M	6.3	96'	–	–	1	34 (28%)	1
25 Sean Zawadzki D	6.3	96'	–	–	–	80 (74%)	2
19 Jamal Thiaré F	6.3	75'	–	–	2	9 (8%)	–
7 Dylan Chambost M	6.3	22'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	–
30 Hugo Picard M	6.3	33'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
90 Nariman Akhundzade M	6.2	83'	–	–	1	26 (22%)	2
4 Rudy Camacho D	6.0	96'	–	–	–	105 (96%)	–

New York City FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Nicolás Fernández M	8.2	96'	1	–	2	53 (45%)	4
26 Agustin Ojeda M	7.6	96'	1	–	2	23 (20%)	4
49 Matthew Freese G	7.2	96'	–	–	–	25 (19%)	–
13 Thiago Martins D	7.2	96'	–	–	–	57 (51%)	2
8 Andrés Perea M	6.9	96'	–	–	3	27 (20%)	3
11 Talles Magno F	6.9	41'	–	1	–	11 (9%)	1
6 James Sands D	6.7	96'	–	–	–	58 (53%)	2
2 Nico Cavallo D	6.6	83'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	3
88 Malachi Jones M	6.6	55'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	2
17 Hannes Wolf F	6.6	41'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	2
29 Máximo Carrizo M	6.6	13'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	2
15 Kevin Pierre M	6.6	19'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
32 Jonathan Shore M	6.5	77'	–	–	–	32 (26%)	2
9 Bénie Traoré F	6.5	55'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	2
24 Tayvon Gray D	6.2	96'	–	–	–	52 (41%)	1

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Columbus Crew win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Columbus Crew

WWLLW

New York City FC

LWLDD

Last 2 meetings Columbus Crew · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

Columbus Crew faces New York City FC in a crucial MLS matchup. Columbus has shown strong form at home this season, boasting a high possession rate (averaging 58%) and a solid defensive record, allowing just 1.2 goals per match. NYCFC, while effective in attack with an average of 1.5 goals per game, has struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 goals on average. Key for Columbus will be to exploit NYCFC's defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining their possession game. The outcome may hinge on whether NYCFC can tighten their backline against a potent Crew attack.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

20%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

New York City FC goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	12	14	5	2
2	11	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Columbus Crew goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Players in form

Columbus Crew

No scorer data.

New York City FC

N. Fernández Mercau 15 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

72% Home (No Draw) 28% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.2%	6.1%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
1	11.9%	13.6%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.6%	9.4%	4.2%	1.2%	0.3%
3	5.5%	4.9%	2.2%	0.7%	0.1%
4	2.2%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Columbus Crew	Draw	New York City FC
Columbus Crew	32.2%	4.0%	1.1%
Draw	18.5%	18.6%	8.4%
New York City FC	2.2%	3.9%	11.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Columbus Crew vs New York City FC

1 Columbus Crew Wins

0 Draws

1 New York City FC Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 May 2026	Columbus Crew	1 - 0	New York City FC
10 May 2026	New York City FC	3 - 0	Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A CF Montreal	W	0 - 2
16 Sep	H Orlando City SC	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	H New York Red Bulls	L	0 - 1
09 Sep	A DC United	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Colorado Rapids	W	3 - 0

New York City FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H New York Red Bulls	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Real Salt Lake	W	0 - 2
10 Sep	H New England Revolution	L	1 - 2
04 Sep	H Nashville SC	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	A Toronto FC	D	1 - 1

Major League Soccer Standings

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	+32	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	+12	46
3	Inter Miami	26	12	10	4	63	48	+15	46
4	Charlotte	26	12	7	7	47	37	+10	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	+7	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	+8	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	-14	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	-14	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	-7	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	+5	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	-8	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	-10	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	-5	26
14	Atlanta United FC	26	7	5	14	30	43	-13	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	-22	21

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	+33	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	+4	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	45	36	+9	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	+7	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	+14	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	+1	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	-8	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	-1	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	-3	32
11	San Diego	26	8	7	11	44	44	0	31
12	Austin	26	7	9	10	32	44	-12	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	-7	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	39	46	-7	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	-34	18

New York City FC

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Pascal Jansen

49 Freese

2 Cavallo

6 Sands

13 Martins

24 Gray

32 Shore

88 Jones

8 Perea

7 Fernández

26 Ojeda

9 Traoré

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
49	Matthew Freese	G
24	Tayvon Gray	D
13	Thiago Martins	D
6	James Sands	D
2	Nico Cavallo	D
32	Jonathan Shore	M
26	Agustin Ojeda	M
7	Nicolás Fernández	M
8	Andrés Perea	M
88	Malachi Jones	M
9	Bénie Traoré	F

Substitutes

17	Hannes Wolf	F
11	Talles Magno	F
15	Kevin Pierre	M
29	Máximo Carrizo	M
30	Tomás Romero	G
35	Mitja Ilenič	D
23	Max Murray	D
87	Arnau Farnos	F
99	Seymour Garfield-Reid	F

Columbus Crew

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Laurent Courtois

28 Schulte

18 Amundsen

4 Camacho

25 Zawadzki

23 Farsi

27 Arfsten

17 Bangoura

50 Karumanchi

90 Akhundzade

16 Habroune

19 Thiaré

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
28	Patrick Schulte	G
23	Mohamed Farsi	D
25	Sean Zawadzki	D
4	Rudy Camacho	D
18	Malte Amundsen	D
90	Nariman Akhundzade	M
50	Tarun Karumanchi	M
17	Sekou Tidiany Bangoura	M
27	Maximilian Arfsten	M
19	Jamal Thiaré	F
16	Taha Habroune	F

Substitutes

30	Hugo Picard	M
31	Steven Moreira	D
7	Dylan Chambost	M
8	Dániel Gazdag	M
46	Chase Adams	F
1	Nicholas Hagen	G
12	Cesar Ruvalcaba	D
45	Owen Presthus	D
14	Amar Sejdic	M