Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre Prediction

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 10

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Velez Sarsfield

Home

3 : 2

HT 1 - 0

Tigre

Away

Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires

AI call Velez Sarsfield or draw

46%

31%

23%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre prediction: Sportiko gives Velez Sarsfield a 46% chance of winning, Tigre 23% and the draw 31%. Last updated 21 Sep 2026, 02:22.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%

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Timeline

Ronaldo Martinez assist: Matías Pellegrini

14' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Nahuel Banegas ⇄ Federico Álvarez

⚽ 1–1 57'

Ignacio Russo assist: Jabes Saralegui

⇄ 59'

Valentín Moreno ⇄ Martín Garay

⇄ 59'

Tiago Serrago ⇄ J. Dómina

J. Policella assist: Joaquín García

67' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 68'

Gonzalo Martínez ⇄ Santiago González

Manuel Lanzini ⇄ Diego Valdés

74' ⇄

J. Policella ⇄ Simon Escobar

74' ⇄

Lucas Robertone ⇄ Luca Feler

76' ⇄

⚽ 2–2 87'

J. Dómina

Ronaldo Martinez assist: Diego Valdés

89' ⚽ 3–2

Ronaldo Martinez ⇄ Dilan Godoy

90+1' ⇄

FT 3–2

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Confidence Low (46%)

At a glance

Our lean

Velez Sarsfield or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Velez Sarsfield

WDWDD

Tigre

LLLDW

Last 3 meetings Velez Sarsfield · 1W 1D 1L

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 3-2! Velez Sarsfield win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

89' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 90.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

77' time check 80% sure

Min 77: Velez Sarsfield leads 2-1. Win probability: 91.2%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 8.8%.

69' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Velez Sarsfield win: 88%. BTTS: 100%.

58' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 51.2%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

46%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

23%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Tigre goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	13	13	5	1
2	11	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Velez Sarsfield goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Velez Sarsfield

R. Martínez 8 gls

Tigre

I. Russo 8 gls

M. Méndez 7 gls

D. Romero 7 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	5.8%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
1	12.6%	13.3%	4.9%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.4%	9.4%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.1%	5.1%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.5%	2.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Velez Sarsfield	Draw	Tigre
Velez Sarsfield	32.6%	3.5%	0.9%
Draw	20.4%	18.4%	7.4%
Tigre	2.4%	4.1%	10.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre

1 Velez Sarsfield Wins

1 Draws

1 Tigre Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Mar 2026	Tigre	1 - 1	Velez Sarsfield
14 Jul 2025	Velez Sarsfield	2 - 1	Tigre
23 Jan 2025	Tigre	3 - 0	Velez Sarsfield

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Velez Sarsfield — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Tigre	W	3 - 2
11 Sep	A Newells Old Boys	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Estudiantes L.P.	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	A Deportivo Riestra	D	1 - 1

Tigre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	A Velez Sarsfield	L	3 - 2
13 Sep	H Rosario Central	L	0 - 1
05 Sep	A Gimnasia L.P.	L	2 - 1
01 Sep	H Barracas Central	D	0 - 0
24 Aug	H Central Cordoba de Santiago	W	2 - 1

Liga Profesional Argentina Standings

Clausura - Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Instituto Cordoba	10	7	1	2	13	7	+6	22
2	Velez Sarsfield	10	5	5	0	15	9	+6	20
3	Defensa Y Justicia	10	5	3	2	13	11	+2	18
4	Gimnasia M.	10	5	2	3	14	9	+5	17
5	Boca Juniors	10	4	5	1	14	11	+3	17
6	Independiente	10	5	2	3	10	8	+2	17
7	Lanus	10	5	1	4	13	9	+4	16
8	Newells Old Boys	10	4	4	2	11	8	+3	16
9	Union Santa Fe	10	4	1	5	17	16	+1	13
10	San Lorenzo	10	3	2	5	4	8	-4	11
11	Estudiantes L.P.	10	3	1	6	10	11	-1	10
12	Deportivo Riestra	10	2	4	4	8	10	-2	10
13	Platense	10	2	3	5	9	15	-6	9
14	Talleres Cordoba	10	2	2	6	11	17	-6	8
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	10	2	2	6	7	13	-6	8

Clausura - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentinos JRS	10	5	3	2	13	9	+4	18
2	Rosario Central	10	5	3	2	11	8	+3	18
3	Independ. Rivadavia	10	5	2	3	14	13	+1	17
4	Gimnasia L.P.	10	5	2	3	15	15	0	17
5	Belgrano Cordoba	10	4	4	2	11	7	+4	16
6	Huracan	10	4	4	2	10	8	+2	16
7	Sarmiento Junin	10	5	1	4	17	16	+1	16
8	River Plate	10	4	1	5	13	12	+1	13
9	Atletico Tucuman	10	3	4	3	7	6	+1	13
10	Tigre	10	3	3	4	9	9	0	12
11	Barracas Central	10	3	3	4	5	7	-2	12
12	Banfield	10	2	3	5	11	16	-5	9
13	Aldosivi	10	2	2	6	12	16	-4	8
14	Racing Club	10	2	2	6	11	16	-5	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	10	1	3	6	5	13	-8	6

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.