Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction
FT
AI call
Velez Sarsfield or draw
40%
31%
29%
Home Win · 2.69
Draw · 3.00
Away Win · 3.20
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente prediction: Sportiko gives Velez Sarsfield a 40% chance of winning, Independiente 29% and the draw 31%. Last updated 3 Aug 2026, 23:59.
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Premium- Over 1.5 Goals 75% @ 1.53
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
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Timeline
⇄
27'
Leonardo Godoy
⇄ Santiago Arias
Dilan Godoy
Yellow Card
42'
▮
▮
45+3'
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
Yellow Card
HT 0–0
⇄
46'
Matías Abaldo
⇄ Facundo Valdéz
Lisandro Magallán
⇄ Emanuel Mammana
46'
⇄
Yellow Card
47'
▮
▮
53'
Santiago Montiel
Yellow Card
Manuel Lanzini
⇄ Simon Escobar
57'
⇄
Dilan Godoy
⇄ Thiago Aguirre
57'
⇄
Thiago Aguirre
70'
⚽
1–0
Matías Pellegrini
Yellow Card
72'
▮
⇄
76'
Mateo Perez
⇄ Maxi Meza
⇄
76'
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
⇄ Lautaro Millán
Simon Escobar
Yellow Card
85'
▮
Matías Pellegrini
⇄ Luca Feler
86'
⇄
Lucas Robertone
⇄ Claudio Baeza
88'
⇄
FT 1–0
Velez Sarsfield
Match Stats
Independiente
54%
Ball Possession
46%
0.89
Expected Goals (xG)
0.40
12
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
1
4
Shots off Goal
8
4
Blocked Shots
2
7
Shots insidebox
5
5
Shots outsidebox
6
4
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
Red Cards
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
437
Total passes
373
337
Passes accurate
281
77%
Passes %
75%
0.39
goals_prevented
0.39
Velez Sarsfield
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Joaquín García D | 7.7 | 95' | – | – | – | 40 (29%) | 4 |
| 39 Thiago Aguirre F | 7.3 | 38' | 1 | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 1 |
| 3 Elías Gómez D | 7.2 | 95' | – | – | – | 46 (33%) | 1 |
| 29 Rodrigo Aliendro M | 7.2 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 50 (37%) | 6 |
| 8 Lucas Robertone M | 7.2 | 88' | – | – | – | 52 (44%) | 3 |
| 10 Diego Valdés M | 7.2 | 95' | – | – | 3 | 41 (35%) | – |
| 32 Thiago Silvero D | 6.9 | 95' | – | – | – | 39 (26%) | 1 |
| 1 Tomás Marchiori G | 6.9 | 95' | – | – | – | 27 (18%) | – |
| 11 Matías Pellegrini M | 6.9 | 86' | – | – | 1 | 36 (30%) | 4 |
| 16 Lisandro Magallán D | 6.7 | 45' | – | – | – | 31 (25%) | – |
| 18 Simon Escobar D | 6.7 | 38' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | – |
| 48 Luca Feler M | 6.5 | 9' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 2 Emanuel Mammana D | 6.3 | 50' | – | – | – | 10 (8%) | – |
| 22 Manuel Lanzini M | 6.3 | 57' | – | – | 1 | 27 (24%) | – |
| 15 Dilan Godoy F | 6.3 | 57' | – | – | 1 | 15 (10%) | – |
| 5 Claudio Baeza M | — | 7' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
Independiente
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 Rodrigo Rey G | 7.6 | 95' | – | – | – | 33 (17%) | – |
| 13 Juan Fedorco D | 7.6 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 27 (21%) | 3 |
| 26 Kevin Lomónaco D | 7.3 | 95' | – | – | – | 40 (33%) | 4 |
| 22 Facundo Zabala D | 7.2 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 39 (26%) | 3 |
| 23 Iván Marcone M | 7.0 | 95' | – | – | – | 50 (43%) | 2 |
| 9 Gabriel Ávalos F | 6.9 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 32 (21%) | – |
| 7 Santiago Montiel M | 6.9 | 95' | – | – | 2 | 31 (27%) | 1 |
| 16 Mateo Perez M | 6.9 | 76' | – | – | – | 30 (25%) | 3 |
| 8 Maxi Meza F | 6.7 | 19' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | 1 |
| 4 Santiago Arias D | 6.6 | 68' | – | – | – | 25 (22%) | 3 |
| 14 Lautaro Millán M | 6.3 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 18 Facundo Valdéz F | 6.3 | 50' | – | – | 1 | 10 (6%) | 3 |
| 29 Leonardo Godoy D | 6.3 | 27' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | 1 |
| 19 Matías Abaldo M | 6.3 | 45' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | – |
| 28 Maximiliano Gutiérrez M | 6.2 | 76' | – | – | 2 | 16 (11%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (40%)
At a glance
Our lean
Velez Sarsfield or draw
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Velez Sarsfield
WWWLW
Independiente
LWWWL
Last 3 meetings
Velez Sarsfield · 1W 1D 1L
Match summary
In the upcoming Liga Profesional Argentina match, Velez Sarsfield will host Independiente. Velez has shown strong form at home, particularly in their defensive organization, allowing only 1.2 goals per match in their last five home fixtures. Independiente, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game in their last five away matches. The matchup will likely hinge on Velez's ability to capitalize on set pieces and exploit Independiente's defensive vulnerabilities. Overall, expect a competitive clash with tactical battles in midfield being pivotal.
Live insights
75'
time check
80% sure
Min 75: Velez Sarsfield leads 1-0. Win probability: 87.2%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 12.8%.
71'
Goal
70% sure
Goal! Score now 1-0. Velez Sarsfield win: 85.1%. BTTS: 20.6%.
45'
half time
65% sure
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 71.4%. Over 1.5 remaining: 38.9%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
40%
45%
Draw
31%
45%
Away
29%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Velez Sarsfield
F. Monzón
6 gls
Independiente
G. Ávalos
11 gls
M. Abaldo
5 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
1
Velez Sarsfield Wins
1
Draws
1
Independiente Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Independiente | 1 - 1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Velez Sarsfield | 2 - 1 | Independiente |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Independiente | 3 - 0 | Velez Sarsfield |
Velez Sarsfield — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug | H Independiente | W | 1 - 0 |
| 30 Jul | A Talleres Cordoba | W | 1 - 3 |
| 24 Jul | H Instituto Cordoba | W | 1 - 0 |
| 11 May | H Gimnasia L.P. | L | 0 - 1 |
| 01 May | H Gimnasia Y Tiro | W | 2 - 0 |
Independiente — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug | A Velez Sarsfield | L | 1 - 0 |
| 31 Jul | H Newells Old Boys | W | 1 - 0 |
| 26 Jul | A Estudiantes L.P. | W | 0 - 2 |
| 22 May | A Union Santa Fe | W | 0 - 2 |
| 24 Apr | A Deportivo Riestra | L | 2 - 0 |
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Velez Sarsfield
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |
Independiente
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Gimnasia M.
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 |
Instituto Cordoba
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |
Newells Old Boys
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 |
Union Santa Fe
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 |
Defensa Y Justicia
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 |
Boca Juniors
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 |
Talleres Cordoba
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Deportivo Riestra
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Estudiantes L.P.
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |
Lanus
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 |
San Lorenzo
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Central Cordoba de Santiago
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 |
Platense
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Clausura - Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Argentinos JRS
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Barracas Central
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 |
Independ. Rivadavia
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 |
Rosario Central
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 |
Gimnasia L.P.
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 |
Atletico Tucuman
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 |
Tigre
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |
Banfield
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 |
Belgrano Cordoba
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |
Huracan
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |
Racing Club
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 |
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 |
Sarmiento Junin
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Aldosivi
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 |
River Plate
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Velez Sarsfield
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Guilermo Barros Schelotto
1
Marchiori
3
Gómez
16
Magallán
32
Silvero
4
García
8
Robertone
29
Aliendro
22
Lanzini
10
Valdés
11
Pellegrini
15
Godoy
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tomás Marchiori | G |
| 4 | Joaquín García | D |
| 32 | Thiago Silvero | D |
| 16 | Lisandro Magallán | D |
| 3 | Elías Gómez | D |
| 29 | Rodrigo Aliendro | M |
| 8 | Lucas Robertone | M |
| 11 | Matías Pellegrini | M |
| 10 | Diego Valdés | M |
| 22 | Manuel Lanzini | M |
| 15 | Dilan Godoy | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | Emanuel Mammana | D |
| 18 | Simon Escobar | D |
| 39 | Thiago Aguirre | F |
| 34 | Alvaro Busso | G |
| 33 | Franco Villalba | G |
| 47 | Alexis Pereyra | D |
| 19 | Leo Cristaldo | D |
| 5 | Claudio Baeza | M |
| 48 | Luca Feler | M |
| 30 | Lautaro Piola | F |
| 17 | Alex Verón | F |
| 37 | Juan Cruz Policella | F |
Independiente
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Gustavo Quinteros
33
Rey
22
Zabala
26
Lomónaco
13
Fedorco
29
Godoy
23
Marcone
16
Curci
19
Abaldo
7
Montiel
28
Gutiérrez
9
Ávalos
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Rodrigo Rey | G |
| 29 | Leonardo Godoy | D |
| 13 | Juan Fedorco | D |
| 26 | Kevin Lomónaco | D |
| 22 | Facundo Zabala | D |
| 16 | Mateo Perez Curci | M |
| 23 | Iván Marcone | M |
| 28 | Maximiliano Gutiérrez | M |
| 7 | Santiago Montiel | M |
| 19 | Matías Abaldo | M |
| 9 | Gabriel Ávalos | F |
Substitutes
| 4 | Santiago Arias | D |
| 18 | Facundo Valdéz | F |
| 1 | Joaquín Blázquez | G |
| 21 | Fernando Closter | D |
| 3 | Jonathan De Irastorza | D |
| 35 | Juan Miguel Arrayago | D |
| 32 | David Martínez | M |
| 8 | Maxi Meza | F |
| 20 | Facundo Cruz | M |
| 14 | Lautaro Millán | M |
| 10 | Luciano Cabral | M |
| 34 | Felipe Tempone | F |