Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction
FT
AI call
Difficult Independiente win or draw
54%
28%
18%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys prediction: Sportiko gives Independiente a 54% chance of winning, Newells Old Boys 18% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Jul 2026, 02:13.
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Timeline
⇄
31'
Walter Nuñez
⇄ Lautaro Rios
Santiago Montiel
41'
⚽
1–0
Juan Fedorco
Yellow Card
43'
▮
HT 1–0
⇄
46'
Walter Mazzantti
⇄ Alan Soñora
Matías Abaldo
⇄ Maxi Meza
46'
⇄
Sebastián Valdez
⇄ Kevin Lomónaco
64'
⇄
Mateo Perez
⇄ David Martínez
64'
⇄
⇄
69'
Juan Ignacio Ramírez
⇄ Matías Cóccaro
⇄
69'
Facundo Guch
⇄ Jeronimo Russo
▮
73'
Luca Regiardo
Yellow Card
Leonardo Godoy
⇄ Santiago Arias
75'
⇄
▮
77'
Franco Escobar
Yellow Card
⇄
82'
Martín Luciano
⇄ Francisco Scarpeccio
Santiago Montiel
⇄ Luciano Cabral
87'
⇄
David Martínez
Yellow Card
88'
▮
▮
90+1'
Francisco Scarpeccio
Yellow Card
FT 1–0
Independiente
Match Stats
Newells Old Boys
49%
Ball Possession
51%
0.59
Expected Goals (xG)
0.11
12
Total Shots
2
4
Shots on Goal
1
5
Shots off Goal
1
3
Blocked Shots
0
9
Shots insidebox
1
3
Shots outsidebox
1
7
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
3
Red Cards
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
388
Total passes
412
313
Passes accurate
323
81%
Passes %
78%
-0.09
goals_prevented
-0.09
Independiente
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Santiago Montiel M | 8.2 | 87' | 1 | – | 2 | 22 (20%) | 4 |
| 29 Leonardo Godoy D | 7.5 | 75' | – | – | – | 35 (31%) | 4 |
| 26 Kevin Lomónaco D | 7.2 | 27' | – | – | – | 19 (19%) | 1 |
| 23 Iván Marcone M | 7.2 | 91' | – | – | – | 51 (45%) | 3 |
| 33 Rodrigo Rey G | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | – | 20 (11%) | – |
| 36 Sebastián Valdez D | 6.9 | 64' | – | – | 2 | 39 (31%) | 1 |
| 22 Facundo Zabala D | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | 2 | 39 (33%) | 2 |
| 16 Mateo Perez M | 6.9 | 64' | – | – | – | 17 (14%) | 5 |
| 13 Juan Fedorco D | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | 2 | 42 (31%) | 1 |
| 19 Matías Abaldo M | 6.9 | 45' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | 2 |
| 8 Maxi Meza F | 6.7 | 46' | – | – | – | 17 (14%) | 1 |
| 4 Santiago Arias D | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | 1 |
| 32 David Martínez M | 6.6 | 27' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | 2 |
| 9 Gabriel Ávalos F | 6.5 | 91' | – | – | – | 14 (9%) | – |
| 28 Maximiliano Gutiérrez M | 6.2 | 91' | – | – | 1 | 22 (12%) | 1 |
| 10 Luciano Cabral M | — | 4' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
Newells Old Boys
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Martín Luciano D | 7.3 | 82' | – | – | – | 42 (31%) | 7 |
| 17 Lautaro Giannetti D | 7.3 | 91' | – | – | – | 52 (44%) | 2 |
| 30 Josué Reinatti G | 7.0 | 91' | – | – | – | 25 (16%) | – |
| 5 Luca Regiardo M | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | – | 53 (47%) | 2 |
| 25 Bruno Cabrera D | 6.7 | 91' | – | – | – | 54 (41%) | – |
| 99 Juan Ignacio Ramírez F | 6.7 | 69' | – | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 1 |
| 7 Walter Mazzantti M | 6.6 | 45' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | 1 |
| 24 Franco Escobar D | 6.6 | 91' | – | – | – | 33 (28%) | 6 |
| 8 David Sotelo M | 6.5 | 91' | – | – | – | 49 (35%) | 3 |
| 36 Francisco Scarpeccio F | 6.5 | 9' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 Matías Cóccaro F | 6.5 | 22' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | 1 |
| 28 Jeronimo Russo F | 6.3 | 22' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 20 Facundo Guch M | 6.3 | 69' | – | – | – | 27 (21%) | – |
| 39 Lautaro Rios M | 6.3 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 16 (10%) | 3 |
| 33 Walter Nuñez M | 6.2 | 31' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 15 Alan Soñora M | 6.2 | 46' | – | – | – | 26 (25%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (54%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Independiente win or draw
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Independiente
WDWLD
Newells Old Boys
WDDDW
Last 3 meetings
Independiente · 0W 1D 2L
Match summary
In the upcoming Liga Profesional Argentina match, Independiente faces Newell's Old Boys. Independiente has shown a solid home record, with a win rate of approximately 60% in their last 10 home games. Conversely, Newell's Old Boys has struggled away, managing only 30% of their points on the road this season. Key players to watch include Independiente's leading goal scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season, while Newell's will rely on their midfield strength to control possession. Overall, Independiente's home form and attacking prowess suggest they will be favored to secure the win.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
54%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
18%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Independiente
G. Ávalos
11 gls
Newells Old Boys
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
0
Independiente Wins
1
Draws
2
Newells Old Boys Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | Newells Old Boys | 1 - 1 | Independiente |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Newells Old Boys | 2 - 1 | Independiente |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Independiente | 0 - 2 | Newells Old Boys |
Independiente — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Union Santa Fe | W | 1 - 2 |
| 13 Sep | H San Lorenzo | D | 1 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Central Cordoba de Santiago | W | 0 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Gimnasia M. | L | 0 - 3 |
| 22 Aug | H Independ. Rivadavia | D | 0 - 0 |
Newells Old Boys — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Platense | W | 0 - 1 |
| 11 Sep | H Velez Sarsfield | D | 1 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Rosario Central | D | 1 - 1 |
| 31 Aug | A Estudiantes L.P. | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | H Banfield | W | 2 - 1 |
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Instituto Cordoba
|
10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 22 |
| 2 |
Velez Sarsfield
|
10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 |
Defensa Y Justicia
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 4 |
Gimnasia M.
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |
Boca Juniors
|
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |
Independiente
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |
Lanus
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |
Newells Old Boys
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |
Union Santa Fe
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |
San Lorenzo
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 |
Estudiantes L.P.
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |
Deportivo Riestra
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |
Platense
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |
Talleres Cordoba
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |
Central Cordoba de Santiago
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
Clausura - Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Argentinos JRS
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 2 |
Rosario Central
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 3 |
Independ. Rivadavia
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 4 |
Gimnasia L.P.
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 |
Belgrano Cordoba
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 |
Huracan
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |
Sarmiento Junin
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 |
River Plate
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 |
Atletico Tucuman
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |
Tigre
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |
Barracas Central
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |
Banfield
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 |
Aldosivi
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 |
Racing Club
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
|
10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
Independiente
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Gustavo Quinteros
33
Rey
22
Zabala
36
Valdez
13
Fedorco
29
Godoy
23
Marcone
16
Curci
19
Abaldo
7
Montiel
28
Gutiérrez
9
Ávalos
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Rodrigo Rey | G |
| 29 | Leonardo Godoy | D |
| 13 | Juan Fedorco | D |
| 36 | Sebastián Valdez | D |
| 22 | Facundo Zabala | D |
| 16 | Mateo Perez Curci | M |
| 23 | Iván Marcone | M |
| 28 | Maximiliano Gutiérrez | M |
| 7 | Santiago Montiel | M |
| 19 | Matías Abaldo | M |
| 9 | Gabriel Ávalos | F |
Substitutes
| 8 | Maxi Meza | F |
| 1 | Joaquín Blázquez | G |
| 4 | Santiago Arias | D |
| 26 | Kevin Lomónaco | D |
| 35 | Juan Miguel Arrayago | D |
| 3 | Jonathan De Irastorza | D |
| 14 | Lautaro Millán | M |
| 32 | David Martínez | M |
| 37 | Joel Medina | M |
| 10 | Luciano Cabral | M |
| 34 | Felipe Tempone | F |
| 18 | Facundo Valdéz | F |
Newells Old Boys
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Lucas Bernardi
30
Reinatti
3
Luciano
17
Giannetti
25
Cabrera
24
Escobar
5
Regiardo
8
Sotelo
33
Nuñez
20
Guch
7
Mazzantti
99
Ramírez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Josué Reinatti | G |
| 24 | Franco Escobar | D |
| 25 | Bruno Cabrera | D |
| 17 | Lautaro Giannetti | D |
| 3 | Martín Luciano | D |
| 8 | David Sotelo | M |
| 5 | Luca Regiardo | M |
| 7 | Walter Mazzantti | M |
| 20 | Facundo Guch | M |
| 33 | Walter Nuñez | M |
| 99 | Juan Ignacio Ramírez | F |
Substitutes
| 39 | Lautaro Rios | M |
| 15 | Alan Soñora | M |
| 21 | Gabriel Arias | G |
| 23 | Nicolás Goitea | D |
| 28 | Jeronimo Russo | F |
| 22 | Óscar Salomón | D |
| 2 | Ian Glavinovich | D |
| 34 | Tomás Viola | M |
| 35 | Blas Benedetto | M |
| 37 | Mateo Villalba | M |
| 36 | Francisco Scarpeccio | F |
| 9 | Matías Cóccaro | F |