Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 34

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Flamengo

Home

3 : 1

HT 3 - 0

Gremio

Away

AI call Flamengo to win

83%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Flamengo vs Gremio prediction: Sportiko gives Flamengo a 83% chance of winning, Gremio 5% and the draw 12%. Last updated 5 Nov 2026, 00:32.

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Home 1H Over 0.5 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 73%

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Timeline

Samuel Lino

20' ⚽ 1–0

Pedro assist: Jorge Carrascal

28' ⚽ 2–0

Pedro

45+2' ⚽ 3–0

HT 3–0

Ayrton Lucas ⇄ Emerson Royal

46' ⇄

Jorge Carrascal ⇄ Luiz Araújo

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Marcos Rocha ⇄ João Pedro

⇄ 46'

Tetê ⇄ Francis Amuzu

⇄ 46'

Pedro Gabriel ⇄ José Enamorado

▮ 59'

Walter Kannemann Yellow Card

⚽ 3–1 69'

Francis Amuzu

⇄ 75'

Walter Kannemann ⇄ Filip Krovinović

Giorgian de Arrascaeta ⇄ Bruno Henrique

75' ⇄

Samuel Lino ⇄ Joaquin Freitas

86' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Martin Braithwaite ⇄ Matheus Nascimento

▮ 89'

Mathias Villasanti Yellow Card

Pedro ⇄ Saúl Ñíguez

90+2' ⇄

FT 3–1

Flamengo

Match Stats

Gremio

55% Ball Possession 45%

2.37 Expected Goals (xG) 0.31

16 Total Shots 7

8 Shots on Goal 4

7 Shots off Goal 2

1 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 4

6 Shots outsidebox 3

7 Corner Kicks 3

Offsides

7 Fouls 6

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

557 Total passes 458

509 Passes accurate 407

91% Passes % 89%

-0.56 goals_prevented -0.56

Flamengo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Pedro F	8.9	81'	2	–	6	19 (16%)	–
16 Samuel Lino M	7.5	81'	1	–	4	31 (27%)	3
4 Léo Pereira D	7.3	81'	–	–	3	84 (78%)	–
21 Jorginho M	7.3	81'	–	–	–	84 (75%)	2
15 Jorge Carrascal M	7.2	45'	–	1	–	32 (29%)	–
10 Giorgian de Arrascaeta M	7.2	75'	–	–	1	52 (49%)	1
3 Léo Ortiz D	7.2	81'	–	–	–	75 (72%)	1
5 Erick Pulgar M	7.0	81'	–	–	1	70 (69%)	4
6 Ayrton Lucas D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	3
22 Emerson Royal D	6.7	36'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	2
2 Guillermo Varela D	6.3	81'	–	–	–	47 (42%)	2
1 Agustín Rossi G	6.3	81'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
7 Luiz Araújo F	6.3	36'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	1
27 Bruno Henrique F	—	6'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Gremio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Francis Amuzu F	7.3	36'	1	–	3	22 (19%)	–
8 Erick Noriega M	7.0	81'	–	–	–	61 (54%)	3
20 Mathias Villasanti M	6.9	81'	–	–	–	59 (57%)	1
12 Gabriel Grando G	6.9	81'	–	–	–	27 (18%)	–
17 Dodi M	6.9	81'	–	–	–	53 (51%)	2
22 Martin Braithwaite F	6.9	81'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	1
38 Caio Paulista M	6.5	81'	–	–	1	34 (30%)	2
99 José Enamorado F	6.5	36'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	–
6 Gustavo Martins D	6.3	81'	–	–	–	41 (39%)	1
18 João Pedro D	6.3	36'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	–
4 Walter Kannemann D	6.2	75'	–	–	–	42 (36%)	3
11 Tetê M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	–
14 Marcos Rocha D	5.9	45'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	2
54 Pedro Gabriel D	5.9	45'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	3
10 Filip Krovinović M	—	6'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–

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Confidence High (83%)

At a glance

Our lean

Flamengo to win

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Flamengo

WWWWD

Gremio

DLWWW

Last 3 meetings Flamengo · 2W 1D 0L

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Flamengo leads 3-1. Win probability: 99.6%. Comeback chance: 0.4%.

71' Goal 85% sure

Flamengo now leads 3-1 with 99.4% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 56.2%.

45' Goal 85% sure

Flamengo now leads 3-0 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 85.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 3-0. Flamengo leads. Win probability: 99.9%. Over 0.5 more goals: 85.1%.

29' Goal 85% sure

Flamengo now leads 2-0 with 98.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 92.1%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

83%

45%

Draw

12%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Flamengo

Pedro 20 gls

Samuel Lino 12 gls

Gremio

Carlos Vinícius 11 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Flamengo vs Gremio

2 Flamengo Wins

1 Draws

0 Gremio Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	Gremio	0 - 1	Flamengo
31 Aug 2025	Flamengo	1 - 1	Gremio
13 Apr 2025	Gremio	0 - 2	Flamengo

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Flamengo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Nov	H Gremio	W	3 - 1
29 Oct	A Vasco DA Gama	W	1 - 4
26 Oct	H Atletico-MG	W	3 - 2
18 Oct	A Bahia	W	0 - 3
16 Oct	A Estudiantes L.P.	D	0 - 0

Gremio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A Atletico-MG	D	1 - 1
04 Nov	A Flamengo	L	3 - 1
01 Nov	H Atletico-MG	W	2 - 0
30 Oct	H Atletico Paranaense	W	2 - 0
26 Oct	A Coritiba	W	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	+13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	+5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	44	40	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	+5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	+1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	-20	29
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	33	68	-35	21

Flamengo

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Arturo Ruiz

1 Rossi

6 Lucas

4 Pereira

3 Ortiz

2 Varela

21 Jorginho

5 Pulgar

16 Lino

10 Arrascaeta

15 Carrascal

9 Guilherme

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Agustín Rossi	G
2	Guillermo Varela	D
3	Léo Ortiz	D
4	Léo Pereira	D
6	Ayrton Lucas	D
5	Erick Pulgar	M
21	Jorginho	M
15	Jorge Carrascal	M
10	Giorgian de Arrascaeta	M
16	Samuel Lino	M
9	Pedro Guilherme	F

Substitutes

49	Dyogo Alves	G
42	Andrew	G
77	Johnny Goes	D
44	Vitão	D
22	Emerson Royal	D
52	Evertton Araujo	M
18	Nicolás de la Cruz	M
7	Luiz Araújo	F
8	Saúl Ñíguez	M
14	Anthony Valencia	F
30	Joaquín Freitas	F
27	Bruno Henrique	F

Gremio

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Arturo Ruiz

12 Grando

54 Gabriel

4 Kannemann

6 Martins

14 Rocha

8 Noriega

38 Paulista

17 Dodi

20 Villasanti

11 Tetê

22 Braithwaite

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Gabriel Grando	G
14	Marcos Rocha	D
6	Gustavo Martins	D
4	Walter Kannemann	D
54	Pedro Gabriel	D
8	Erick Noriega	M
11	Tetê	M
20	Mathias Villasanti	M
17	Dodi	M
38	Caio Paulista	M
22	Martin Braithwaite	F

Substitutes

24	Thiago Beltrame	G
82	Wallace	D
18	João Pedro	D
3	Wagner Leonardo	D
2	Fabián Balbuena	D
50	Zortéa	M
9	Francis Amuzu	F
10	Filip Krovinović	M
99	José Enamorado	F
48	João Borne	M
30	Matheus Nascimento	F
77	Jovane Cabral	F