Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
AI call
Gremio or draw
40%
29%
30%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense prediction: Sportiko gives Gremio a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense 30% and the draw 29%. Last updated 30 Oct 2026, 02:29.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
- Under 3.5 Goals 72%
- Away to Score 71%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 71%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
▮
23'
Juan Portilla
Yellow Card
José Enamorado
Yellow Card
29'
▮
▮
37'
Leonardo Derik
Yellow Card
Marlon
39'
⚽
1–0
HT 1–0
⇄
46'
Leonardo Derik
⇄ Gastón Benavídez
⇄
46'
Juan Portilla
⇄ Bruno Zapelli
Fabián Balbuena
52'
⚽
2–0
⇄
62'
Leozinho
⇄ Kerwin Calderón Vargas
Carlos Vinícius
Yellow Card
66'
▮
Carlos Vinícius
⇄ Martin Braithwaite
67'
⇄
José Enamorado
⇄ Tetê
67'
⇄
Fabián Balbuena
⇄ Dodi
68'
⇄
Erick Noriega
Yellow Card
69'
▮
Francis Amuzu
⇄ Caio Paulista
79'
⇄
⇄
80'
João Cruz
⇄ Jorge Rivaldo
Mathias Villasanti
⇄ Wagner Leonardo
87'
⇄
▮
88'
Bruno Zapelli
Yellow Card
⇄
89'
Steven Mendoza
⇄ Dudu
Weverton
Yellow Card
90+2'
▮
FT 2–0
Gremio
Match Stats
Atletico Paranaense
31%
Ball Possession
69%
1.31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
17
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Shots off Goal
4
6
Blocked Shots
6
10
Shots insidebox
8
7
Shots outsidebox
6
6
Corner Kicks
8
2
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
2
Red Cards
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
220
Total passes
495
163
Passes accurate
447
74%
Passes %
90%
-0.38
goals_prevented
-0.38
Gremio
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Weverton G | 8.2 | 84' | – | – | – | 30 (13%) | 1 |
| 2 Fabián Balbuena D | 7.9 | 68' | 1 | – | 1 | 18 (15%) | – |
| 23 Marlon M | 7.9 | 84' | 1 | – | 2 | 23 (17%) | – |
| 8 Erick Noriega M | 7.0 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 19 (17%) | 1 |
| 82 Wallace D | 6.9 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 27 (24%) | 1 |
| 6 Gustavo Martins D | 6.9 | 84' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | – |
| 20 Mathias Villasanti M | 6.9 | 84' | – | – | – | 31 (24%) | 2 |
| 99 José Enamorado F | 6.7 | 67' | – | – | 2 | 12 (11%) | – |
| 95 Carlos Vinícius F | 6.6 | 67' | – | – | 3 | 11 (8%) | 2 |
| 17 Dodi M | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 18 João Pedro M | 6.6 | 84' | – | – | – | 18 (12%) | 1 |
| 11 Tetê F | 6.5 | 17' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 9 Francis Amuzu F | 6.3 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 9 (6%) | – |
| 22 Martin Braithwaite F | 6.2 | 17' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 38 Caio Paulista D | — | 5' | – | – | – | – | – |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Luiz Gustavo M | 7.9 | 84' | – | – | – | 83 (79%) | 1 |
| 37 Lucas Esquivel D | 7.5 | 84' | – | – | – | 56 (53%) | 4 |
| 21 Leozinho F | 7.5 | 62' | – | – | – | 27 (25%) | 1 |
| 10 Bruno Zapelli M | 7.0 | 39' | – | – | – | 38 (35%) | 1 |
| 4 Arthur Dias D | 6.9 | 84' | – | – | – | 46 (41%) | 2 |
| 18 Kerwin Calderón Vargas F | 6.7 | 22' | – | – | – | 15 (15%) | – |
| 7 Steven Mendoza M | 6.7 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 35 (29%) | – |
| 1 Mycael G | 6.7 | 84' | – | – | – | 11 (8%) | – |
| 33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D | 6.6 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 37 (33%) | 2 |
| 27 Juan Portilla M | 6.5 | 45' | – | – | 1 | 43 (41%) | – |
| 9 Kevin Viveros F | 6.5 | 84' | – | – | 2 | 12 (8%) | – |
| 6 Leonardo Derik M | 6.5 | 45' | – | – | – | 23 (19%) | 1 |
| 8 João Cruz F | 6.3 | 80' | – | – | 2 | 36 (33%) | – |
| 29 Gastón Benavídez D | 6.3 | 39' | – | – | 1 | 32 (27%) | 1 |
| 19 Jorge Rivaldo F | — | 4' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (40%)
At a glance
Our lean
Gremio or draw
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Gremio
DLWWW
Atletico Paranaense
LLDLW
Last 3 meetings
Gremio · 2W 1D 0L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
40%
45%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
30%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Gremio
Carlos Vinícius
11 gls
Atletico Paranaense
K. Viveros
21 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
2
Gremio Wins
1
Draws
0
Atletico Paranaense Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 2026 | Atletico Paranaense | 0 - 0 | Gremio |
| 04 Aug 2024 | Atletico Paranaense | 0 - 2 | Gremio |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Gremio | 2 - 0 | Atletico Paranaense |
Gremio — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Atletico-MG | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A Flamengo | L | 3 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Atletico-MG | W | 2 - 0 |
| 30 Oct | H Atletico Paranaense | W | 2 - 0 |
| 26 Oct | A Coritiba | W | 0 - 1 |
Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov | H Vasco DA Gama | L | 1 - 3 |
| 30 Oct | A Gremio | L | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A Vitoria | D | 1 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | H Palmeiras | L | 0 - 2 |
| 12 Oct | A Chapecoense-sc | W | 1 - 4 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Flamengo
|
34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |
Palmeiras
|
34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |
Cruzeiro
|
34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |
Fluminense
|
34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |
Atletico Paranaense
|
34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |
Bahia
|
34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
|
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |
RB Bragantino
|
34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |
Santos
|
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |
Sao Paulo
|
34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |
Botafogo
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |
Coritiba
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |
Vasco DA Gama
|
33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |
Mirassol
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |
Vitoria
|
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |
Internacional
|
34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |
Corinthians
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |
Gremio
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |
Remo
|
34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense B
|
20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense-sc
|
33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
Gremio
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
1
Weverton
82
Wallace
2
Balbuena
6
Martins
23
Marlon
20
Villasanti
8
Noriega
18
Pedro
9
Amuzu
95
Vinícius
99
Enamorado
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weverton | G |
| 6 | Gustavo Martins | D |
| 2 | Fabián Balbuena | D |
| 82 | Wallace | D |
| 18 | João Pedro | M |
| 8 | Erick Noriega | M |
| 20 | Mathias Villasanti | M |
| 23 | Marlon | M |
| 99 | José Enamorado | F |
| 95 | Carlos Vinícius | F |
| 9 | Francis Amuzu | F |
Substitutes
| 12 | Gabriel Grando | G |
| 14 | Marcos Rocha | D |
| 54 | Pedro Gabriel | D |
| 3 | Wagner Leonardo | D |
| 38 | Caio Paulista | D |
| 50 | Zortéa | M |
| 10 | Filip Krovinović | M |
| 17 | Dodi | M |
| 48 | João Borne | M |
| 30 | Matheus Nascimento | F |
| 11 | Tetê | F |
| 22 | Martin Braithwaite | F |
Atletico Paranaense
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
1
Mycael
37
Esquivel
33
Aguirre
4
Dias
6
Derik
14
Gustavo
27
Portilla
7
Mendoza
8
Cruz
21
Leozinho
9
Viveros
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mycael | G |
| 4 | Arthur Dias | D |
| 33 | Juan Felipe Aguirre | D |
| 37 | Lucas Esquivel | D |
| 7 | Steven Mendoza | M |
| 27 | Juan Portilla | M |
| 14 | Luiz Gustavo | M |
| 6 | Leonardo Derik | M |
| 21 | Leozinho | F |
| 8 | João Cruz | F |
| 9 | Kevin Viveros | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | Santos | G |
| 29 | Gastón Benavídez | D |
| 55 | Bruno Baldini | D |
| 2 | Gilberto Junior | D |
| 25 | Dantas | D |
| 53 | Dudu | M |
| 47 | Chiqueti | M |
| 18 | Kerwin Vargas | F |
| 5 | Felipinho | D |
| 10 | Bruno Zapelli | M |
| 19 | Jorge Rivaldo | F |
| 70 | Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F |