Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 27

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Gremio

Home

1 : 2

HT 1 - 0

Vasco DA Gama

Away

AI call Gremio or draw

36%

30%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: Sportiko gives Gremio a 36% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama 33% and the draw 30%. Last updated 12 Sep 2026, 20:57.

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Home to Score 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%
Away to Score 70%

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Timeline

Pedro Gabriel Yellow Card

7' ▮

▮ 26'

Tchê Tchê Yellow Card

Wallace Yellow Card

32' ▮

Mathias Villasanti

39' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 45+2'

Cuiabano Yellow Card

HT 1–0

▮ 53'

Robert Renan Yellow Card

⇄ 55'

Adson ⇄ Bruno Duarte

⇄ 55'

Paulo Henrique ⇄ Puma Rodríguez

Diego Caito Yellow Card

58' ▮

Jovane Cabral ⇄ Juan Nardoni

61' ⇄

Tetê ⇄ José Enamorado

71' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Tchê Tchê ⇄ Alan Lescano

⇄ 73'

Carlos Cuesta ⇄ Jair

⚽ 1–1 76'

Thiago Mendes

⇄ 78'

Cuiabano ⇄ Lucas Piton

⚽ 1–2 80'

Facundo Colidio assist: Bruno Duarte

Walter Kannemann ⇄ Matheus Nascimento

86' ⇄

FT 1–2

Gremio

Match Stats

Vasco DA Gama

51% Ball Possession 49%

13 Total Shots 17

5 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 7

6 Shots insidebox 12

7 Shots outsidebox 5

3 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 14

3 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

482 Total passes 463

394 Passes accurate 387

14 Free Kicks 10

Gremio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Mathias Villasanti M	7.9	90'	1	–	2	48 (41%)	4
4 Walter Kannemann D	7.0	86'	–	–	–	37 (34%)	2
10 Filip Krovinović M	6.8	90'	–	–	2	49 (43%)	2
77 Jovane Cabral M	6.7	61'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
82 Wallace D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	55 (50%)	3
30 Matheus Nascimento F	6.6	4'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–
99 José Enamorado F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
27 Diego Caito D	6.5	90'	–	–	2	51 (39%)	2
1 Weverton G	6.4	90'	–	–	–	28 (19%)	–
8 Erick Noriega M	6.4	90'	–	–	1	54 (44%)	2
5 Juan Nardoni M	6.3	29'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	1
11 Tetê M	6.3	71'	–	–	2	42 (29%)	3
54 Pedro Gabriel D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	35 (29%)	–
95 Carlos Vinícius F	6.1	90'	–	–	2	14 (12%)	–

Vasco DA Gama

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Thiago Mendes M	8.2	90'	1	–	2	62 (58%)	3
9 Facundo Colidio F	7.9	90'	1	–	3	29 (17%)	–
1 Léo Jardim G	7.5	90'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–
19 Bruno Duarte F	6.8	35'	–	1	1	6 (3%)	1
46 Carlos Cuesta D	6.7	73'	–	–	–	40 (37%)	–
5 Santiago Sosa M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	67 (59%)	2
11 Andrés Gómez M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	3
2 Puma Rodríguez D	6.5	35'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
8 Jair M	6.4	17'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	1
22 Alan Lescano M	6.4	17'	–	–	1	14 (13%)	–
30 Robert Renan D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	55 (44%)	2
66 Cuiabano D	6.3	78'	–	–	1	31 (23%)	10
3 Tchê Tchê M	6.3	73'	–	–	3	37 (32%)	1
6 Lucas Piton D	6.2	12'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
96 Paulo Henrique D	6.1	55'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	1
28 Adson M	6.0	55'	–	–	2	23 (18%)	1

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Confidence Low (36%)

At a glance

Our lean

Gremio or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Gremio

DLLLW

Vasco DA Gama

WWWDL

Last 3 meetings Gremio · 1W 1D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

36%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

33%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Vasco DA Gama goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	8	6	2	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Gremio goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Players in form

Gremio

Carlos Vinícius 10 gls

Vasco DA Gama

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

36%

Away Win

33%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

36%

Away Win

33%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	8.4%	6.1%	2.5%	0.8%
1	8.9%	14.5%	7.9%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.8%	8.2%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	2.9%	3.5%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gremio	Draw	Vasco DA Gama
Gremio	19.9%	4.5%	2.1%
Draw	15.4%	19.7%	14.8%
Vasco DA Gama	2.0%	4.2%	17.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama

1 Gremio Wins

1 Draws

1 Vasco DA Gama Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Vasco DA Gama	2 - 1	Gremio
19 Nov 2025	Gremio	2 - 0	Vasco DA Gama
19 Jul 2025	Vasco DA Gama	1 - 1	Gremio

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Gremio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Palmeiras	D	0 - 0
16 Sep	A Botafogo	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Vitoria	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Internacional	W	3 - 1

Vasco DA Gama — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Coritiba	W	5 - 0
15 Sep	H Santa Fe	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Gremio	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Santa Fe	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	A Fluminense	L	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Gremio

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Luís Castro

1 Weverton

54 Gabriel

4 Kannemann

82 Wallace

27 Caito

8 Noriega

77 Cabral

10 Krovinović

20 Villasanti

11 Tetê

95 Vinícius

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Weverton	G
27	Diego Caito	D
82	Wallace	D
4	W. Kannemann	D
54	Pedro Gabriel	D
8	E. Noriega	M
11	Tetê	M
20	M. Villasanti	M
10	F. Krovinović	M
77	Jovane Cabral	M
95	Carlos Vinícius	F

Substitutes

30	Matheus Nascimento	F
5	J. Nardoni	M
14	Marcos Rocha	D
50	Bernardo Zortea	M
22	M. Braithwaite	F
3	Wagner Leonardo	D
15	Danilo Barbosa	M
99	J. Enamorado	F
65	Riquelme Freitas	M
12	Gabriel Grando	G
6	Gustavo Martins	D
18	João Pedro	D

Vasco DA Gama

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Pedro Emanuel

1 Jardim

66 Cuiabano

30 Renan

46 Cuesta

96 Henrique

5 Sosa

11 Gómez

23 Mendes

3 Tchê

28 Adson

9 Colidio

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Léo Jardim	G
96	Paulo Henrique	D
46	C. Cuesta	D
30	Robert Renan	D
66	Cuiabano	D
5	S. Sosa	M
28	Adson	M
3	Tchê Tchê	M
23	Thiago Mendes	M
11	A. Gómez	M
9	F. Colidio	F

Substitutes

8	Jair	M
17	Nuno Moreira	M
6	Lucas Piton	D
22	A. Lescano	M
18	M. Hinestroza	F
19	Bruno Duarte	F
7	David	F
13	Daniel Fuzato	G
88	Cauan Barros	M
2	J. Rodríguez	D
83	Ramon Rique	M
43	Lucas Freitas	D