Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prediction
AI call
Atletico-MG or draw
42%
31%
28%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico-MG a 42% chance of winning, Fluminense 28% and the draw 31%. Last updated 12 Sep 2026, 20:57.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
- Home to Score 74%
- Over 1.5 Goals 71%
- 1st Half Draw or Away 71%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Alan Franco
Yellow Card
19'
▮
HT 0–0
▮
52'
Otávio
Yellow Card
Reinier
assist: Tomás Cuello
61'
⚽
1–0
⇄
61'
Luciano Acosta
⇄ Hércules
⇄
61'
Agustín Canobbio
⇄ Kevin Serna
Tomás Cuello
63'
⚽
2–0
Alan Franco
⇄ Maycon
65'
⇄
Kevin Castaño
⇄ Mamady Cissé
65'
⇄
▮
69'
Rodrigo Castillo
Yellow Card
Tomás Cuello
⇄ Igor Gomes
70'
⇄
Bernard
⇄ Gustavo Scarpa
70'
⇄
⇄
72'
Otávio
⇄ Ganso
⇄
72'
Jefferson Savarino
⇄ Riquelme Felipe
Reinier
⇄ Mateo Cassierra
78'
⇄
Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
assist: Mateo Cassierra
81'
⚽
3–0
⚽
3–1
90'
Rodrigo Castillo
assist: Kevin Serna
⇄
90+1'
Júlio Fidelis
⇄ Jemmes
FT 3–1
Atletico-MG
Match Stats
Fluminense
48%
Ball Possession
52%
15
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Goal
3
3
Shots off Goal
5
5
Blocked Shots
1
6
Shots insidebox
4
9
Shots outsidebox
5
5
Corner Kicks
2
2
Offsides
0
8
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
495
Total passes
536
433
Passes accurate
473
10
Free Kicks
8
Atletico-MG
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Tomás Cuello M | 9.0 | 70' | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 (19%) | 2 |
| 19 Reinier F | 8.2 | 78' | 1 | – | 2 | 35 (31%) | 3 |
| 40 Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira D | 7.5 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 48 (39%) | 1 |
| 2 Natanael D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (27%) | 4 |
| 15 Kevin Castaño M | 7.1 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 58 (55%) | 2 |
| 7 Fred M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 61 (54%) | 1 |
| 9 Mateo Cassierra F | 7.0 | 12' | – | 1 | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 14 Vitor Hugo D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (55%) | – |
| 10 Gustavo Scarpa M | 6.9 | 20' | – | – | 1 | 9 (7%) | – |
| 1 Gabriel Delfim G | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (23%) | – |
| 39 Mamady Cissé M | 6.6 | 25' | – | – | – | 12 (12%) | – |
| 17 Igor Gomes M | 6.6 | 20' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | – |
| 36 Kauã Pascini D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (38%) | 1 |
| 21 Alan Franco M | 6.5 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 30 (28%) | – |
| 8 Maycon M | 6.4 | 25' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 11 Bernard M | 6.3 | 70' | – | – | 2 | 32 (26%) | 1 |
Fluminense
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Rodrigo Castillo F | 7.8 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 33 (28%) | 1 |
| 22 Juan Pablo Freytes D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 72 (62%) | – |
| 1 Fábio G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (20%) | – |
| 28 Riquelme Felipe F | 6.8 | 18' | – | – | 1 | 20 (20%) | – |
| 13 Guilherme Arana D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 43 (39%) | 3 |
| 21 Igor Rabello D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (48%) | 1 |
| 90 Kevin Serna F | 6.6 | 29' | – | 1 | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 16 Nonato M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (54%) | 1 |
| 11 Jefferson Savarino M | 6.4 | 72' | – | – | 3 | 30 (27%) | – |
| 94 Otávio M | 6.4 | 72' | – | – | – | 50 (45%) | – |
| 35 Hércules M | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 25 (22%) | 2 |
| 46 Júlio Fidelis D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (40%) | 6 |
| 10 Ganso M | 6.1 | 18' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 32 Luciano Acosta F | 6.0 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 21 (15%) | 1 |
| 17 Agustín Canobbio M | 5.9 | 61' | – | – | – | 24 (20%) | 3 |
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Confidence
Low (42%)
At a glance
Our lean
Atletico-MG or draw
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Atletico-MG
DLLLL
Fluminense
WWLWL
Last 3 meetings
Atletico-MG · 1W 0D 2L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
42%
10%
Draw
31%
45%
Away
28%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Atletico-MG
No scorer data.
Fluminense
John Kennedy
9 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
1
Atletico-MG Wins
0
Draws
2
Fluminense Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Fluminense | 1 - 0 | Atletico-MG |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Fluminense | 3 - 0 | Atletico-MG |
| 11 May 2025 | Atletico-MG | 3 - 2 | Fluminense |
Atletico-MG — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Gremio | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Nov | A Botafogo | L | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Gremio | L | 2 - 0 |
| 29 Oct | H Cruzeiro | L | 0 - 1 |
| 26 Oct | A Flamengo | L | 3 - 2 |
Fluminense — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Vitoria | W | 0 - 3 |
| 28 Oct | H Internacional | W | 2 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | A Chapecoense-sc | L | 2 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | A Palmeiras | W | 0 - 1 |
| 18 Oct | H Santos | L | 1 - 2 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Flamengo
|
34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |
Palmeiras
|
34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |
Cruzeiro
|
34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |
Fluminense
|
34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |
Atletico Paranaense
|
34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |
Bahia
|
34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
|
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |
RB Bragantino
|
34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |
Santos
|
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |
Sao Paulo
|
34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |
Botafogo
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |
Coritiba
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |
Vasco DA Gama
|
33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |
Mirassol
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |
Vitoria
|
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |
Internacional
|
34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |
Corinthians
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |
Gremio
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |
Remo
|
34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense B
|
20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense-sc
|
33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
Fluminense
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Marcão
1
Fábio
13
Arana
22
Freytes
21
Rabello
46
Fidelis
11
Savarino
16
Nonato
94
Otávio
17
Canobbio
32
Acosta
19
Castillo
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fábio | G |
| 46 | Julio Fidelis | D |
| 21 | Igor Rabello | D |
| 22 | J. Freytes | D |
| 13 | Guilherme Arana | D |
| 17 | A. Canobbio | M |
| 94 | Otávio | M |
| 16 | Nonato | M |
| 11 | J. Savarino | M |
| 19 | R. Castillo | F |
| 32 | L. Acosta | F |
Substitutes
| 34 | Wesley Nata | F |
| 98 | Vitor Eudes | G |
| 90 | K. Serna | F |
| 28 | Riquelme | F |
| 6 | Renê | D |
| 10 | PH Ganso | M |
| 29 | J. Millán | D |
| 8 | Martinelli | M |
| 44 | Jemmes | D |
| 35 | Hércules | M |
| 41 | Ruan Sales Oliveira | M |
Atletico-MG
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: E. Domínguez
1
Delfim
36
Pascini
14
Hugo
40
Vitão
2
Natanael
15
Castaño
21
Franco
11
Bernard
7
Fred
28
Cuello
19
Reinier
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Delfim | G |
| 2 | Natanael | D |
| 40 | Vitão | D |
| 14 | Vitor Hugo | D |
| 36 | K. Pascini | D |
| 21 | A. Franco | M |
| 15 | K. Castaño | M |
| 28 | T. Cuello | M |
| 7 | Fred | M |
| 11 | Bernard | M |
| 19 | Reinier | F |
Substitutes
| 5 | Alexsander | M |
| 9 | M. Cassierra | F |
| 39 | Mamady Cisse | M |
| 92 | Dudu | F |
| 10 | Gustavo Scarpa | M |
| 17 | Igor Gomes | M |
| 6 | Renan Lodi | D |
| 13 | Lyanco | D |
| 8 | Maycon | M |
| 27 | A. Minda | F |
| 23 | A. Preciado | D |
| 31 | Robert | G |