Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 24

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Vitoria

Home

0 : 2

HT 0 - 0

Bahia

Away

AI call Bahia or draw

31%

30%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Vitoria vs Bahia prediction: Sportiko gives Vitoria a 31% chance of winning, Bahia 38% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Aug 2026, 21:02.

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Timeline

Matheuzinho Yellow Card

26' ▮

▮ 42'

Rodrigo Nestor Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Diego Tarzia ⇄ Tomás Pochettino

46' ⇄

Walace ⇄ Emmanuel Martínez

46' ⇄

Erick ⇄ Marinho

63' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 67'

Alejo Véliz assist: Erick Pulga

Matheuzinho ⇄ Renato Kayzer

70' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Erick ⇄ Jean Lucas

Emanuel Brítez ⇄ Mateusinho

77' ⇄

▮ 78'

Erick Pulga Yellow Card

⇄ 82'

Erick Pulga ⇄ Ruan Pablo

⇄ 82'

Ruan Pablo ⇄ Michel Araújo

⇄ 90+4'

Alejo Véliz ⇄ Everaldo

Cacá Yellow Card

90+7' ▮

⚽ 0–2 90+7'

Jean Lucas assist: Michel Araújo

▮ 90+9'

Jean Lucas Yellow Card

FT 0–2

Vitoria

Match Stats

Bahia

47% Ball Possession 53%

0.27 Expected Goals (xG) 3.41

12 Total Shots 27

2 Shots on Goal 8

7 Shots off Goal 12

3 Blocked Shots 7

4 Shots insidebox 16

8 Shots outsidebox 11

6 Corner Kicks 7

1 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 2

296 Total passes 334

210 Passes accurate 273

71% Passes % 82%

0.05 goals_prevented 0.05

Vitoria

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Cacá D	7.5	95'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	1
1 Lucas Arcanjo G	7.3	95'	–	–	–	26 (16%)	–
15 Walace M	7.2	45'	–	–	1	19 (15%)	3
12 Diego Tarzia M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
6 Emmanuel Martínez M	6.7	50'	–	–	–	22 (15%)	1
8 Tomás Pochettino M	6.7	50'	–	–	2	12 (7%)	2
36 Luan Cândido D	6.6	95'	–	–	–	21 (15%)	2
88 Zé Vitor M	6.6	95'	–	–	2	36 (27%)	3
98 Mateusinho D	6.6	18'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	2
7 Marinho F	6.6	32'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
2 Emanuel Brítez D	6.5	77'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	2
10 Matheuzinho M	6.5	70'	–	–	1	24 (17%)	1
13 Ramon D	6.3	95'	–	–	1	40 (26%)	2
79 Renato Kayzer F	6.3	25'	–	–	–	2	–
33 Erick M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	–
91 Renê Sousa F	5.9	95'	–	–	1	13 (9%)	1

Bahia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
46 Luciano Juba D	8.3	95'	–	–	1	41 (38%)	4
9 Alejo Véliz F	7.6	94'	1	–	4	13 (7%)	–
16 Erick Pulga F	7.5	82'	–	1	4	22 (18%)	–
1 Ronaldo G	7.3	95'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	1
33 David Duarte D	7.3	95'	–	–	1	30 (25%)	–
21 Santiago Ramos Mingo D	7.2	95'	–	–	1	32 (26%)	–
5 Nicolás Acevedo M	7.2	95'	–	–	–	53 (42%)	1
14 Erick M	7.0	71'	–	–	1	14 (11%)	5
31 Román Gómez D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	30 (22%)	2
11 Rodrigo Nestor M	6.9	82'	–	–	3	30 (23%)	3
15 Michel Araújo M	6.9	13'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	1
6 Jean Lucas M	6.7	24'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	–
77 Ruan Pablo F	6.5	13'	–	–	1	–	–
99 Cristian Olivera F	6.3	95'	–	–	2	23 (22%)	1
27 Everaldo F	—	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

Bahia or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Vitoria

LDWLL

Bahia

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Vitoria · 1W 1D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

31%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

38%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bahia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	14	10	4	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	4	5	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Vitoria goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Vitoria

Rene 9 gls

Bahia

Luciano Juba 9 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

66% Away (No Draw) 34% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Away Scores More 33% Equal Goals 23% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.3%	14.0%	9.7%	4.0%	1.3%
1	8.8%	14.7%	8.1%	3.3%	1.0%
2	4.4%	5.4%	3.4%	1.4%	0.4%
3	1.2%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vitoria	Draw	Bahia
Vitoria	13.4%	3.7%	1.3%
Draw	9.7%	22.7%	15.0%
Bahia	1.1%	4.3%	29.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vitoria vs Bahia

1 Vitoria Wins

1 Draws

1 Bahia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Mar 2026	Bahia	1 - 1	Vitoria
07 Mar 2026	Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria
16 Oct 2025	Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia

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Vitoria — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Cruzeiro	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Mirassol	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	H Gremio	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	L	0 - 2
29 Aug	A Atletico-MG	L	2 - 1

Bahia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Paranaense	L	2 - 1
14 Sep	H Remo	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A RB Bragantino	W	2 - 3
30 Aug	H Internacional	W	3 - 2
23 Aug	A Vitoria	W	0 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Bahia

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Ceni Rogerio

1 Ronaldo

46 Juba

21 Mingo

33 Duarte

31 Gómez

5 Acevedo

16 Pulga

11 Nestor

14 Erick

99 Olivera

9 Véliz

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ronaldo	G
31	Román Gómez	D
33	David Duarte	D
21	Santiago Ramos Mingo	D
46	Luciano Juba	D
5	Nicolás Acevedo	M
99	Cristian Olivera	M
14	Erick	M
11	Rodrigo Nestor	M
16	Erick Pulga	M
9	Alejo Véliz	F

Substitutes

17	Guido Herrera	G
66	José Guilherme	D
44	Marcos Victor	D
3	Marco Moreno	D
4	Kanu	D
6	Jean Lucas	M
77	Ruan Pablo	F
23	Mateo Sanabria	F
15	Michel Araújo	M
8	Caio Alexandre	M
12	Willian José	F
27	Everaldo	F

Vitoria

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ventura Jair

1 Arcanjo

13 Ramon

36 Cândido

25 Cacá

2 Brítez

15 Walace

88 Vitor

12 Tarzia

10 Matheuzinho

33 Erick

91 Sousa

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lucas Arcanjo	G
2	Emanuel Brítez	D
25	Cacá	D
36	Luan Cândido	D
13	Ramon	D
88	Zé Vitor	M
15	Walace	M
33	Erick	M
10	Matheuzinho	M
12	Diego Tarzia	M
91	Renê Sousa	F

Substitutes

6	Emmanuel Martínez	M
8	Tomás Pochettino	M
7	Marinho	F
71	Yuri Sena	G
18	Kauan	D
26	Edenilson	M
98	Mateusinho	D
83	Jamerson	D
11	Osvaldo	F
9	Alex Bruno	F
23	Fabrício Santos	F
79	Renato Kayzer	F