Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 23

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Corinthians

Home

1 : 2

HT 0 - 1

Cruzeiro

Away

AI call Corinthians or draw

38%

31%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro prediction: Sportiko gives Corinthians a 38% chance of winning, Cruzeiro 31% and the draw 31%. Last updated 17 Aug 2026, 00:29.

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1st Half Draw or Away 76%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 36'

Bruno Rodrigues

HT 0–1

Breno Bidon ⇄ Jesse Lingard

46' ⇄

▮ 52'

Felipe Morais Yellow Card

Gabriel Paulista ⇄ João Pedro Tchoca

54' ⇄

Gustavo Henrique

58' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 58'

Zé Lucas ⇄ Gerson

⇄ 58'

Kaio Jorge ⇄ Matheus Pereira

⇄ 58'

Felipe Morais ⇄ Keny Arroyo

▮ 67'

Jonathan Jesus Yellow Card

Pedro Raul ⇄ Gui Negão

70' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Bruno Rodrigues ⇄ Luciano Rodríguez

Kaio César ⇄ Dieguinho

71' ⇄

⇄ 79'

João Costa ⇄ Wanderson

André Carrillo ⇄ Matheus Pereira

80' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 82'

Wanderson assist: Luciano Rodríguez

▮ 90'

Lucas Villalba Yellow Card

▮ 90'

Luciano Rodríguez Yellow Card

Rodrigo Garro Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

FT 1–2

Corinthians

Match Stats

Cruzeiro

53% Ball Possession 47%

1.33 Expected Goals (xG) 1.28

19 Total Shots 15

6 Shots on Goal 6

5 Shots off Goal 3

8 Blocked Shots 6

11 Shots insidebox 10

8 Shots outsidebox 5

3 Corner Kicks 8

0 Offsides 3

16 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 5

457 Total passes 410

393 Passes accurate 337

86% Passes % 82%

0.47 goals_prevented 0.47

Corinthians

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Gustavo Henrique D	7.6	93'	1	–	1	58 (54%)	2
19 André Carrillo M	7.3	80'	–	–	1	38 (36%)	3
37 Kaio César M	7.2	71'	–	–	1	17 (11%)	1
4 João Pedro Tchoca D	7.2	39'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	3
8 Rodrigo Garro M	7.0	93'	–	–	3	33 (26%)	2
1 Hugo Souza G	6.9	93'	–	–	–	30 (21%)	–
2 Matheuzinho D	6.9	93'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	3
29 Allan M	6.9	93'	–	–	1	54 (48%)	3
7 Breno Bidon M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	1
3 Gabriel Paulista D	6.7	54'	–	–	–	48 (44%)	–
23 Matheus Pereira M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
56 Gui Negão F	6.6	23'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	1
18 Pedro Raul F	6.5	70'	–	–	1	7 (4%)	1
21 Matheus Bidu D	6.3	93'	–	–	1	46 (37%)	2
61 Dieguinho M	6.3	22'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
77 Jesse Lingard M	6.2	48'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–

Cruzeiro

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
43 João Marcelo D	7.3	93'	–	–	–	54 (49%)	1
94 Wanderson F	7.3	14'	1	–	1	4 (3%)	–
29 Lucas Romero M	7.0	93'	–	–	–	65 (58%)	1
23 Fagner D	6.9	93'	–	–	1	31 (25%)	2
34 Jonathan Jesus D	6.9	93'	–	–	–	54 (50%)	2
9 Bruno Rodrigues F	6.9	70'	1	–	3	16 (8%)	1
99 Keny Arroyo F	6.9	35'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	–
19 Kaio Jorge F	6.7	58'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	–
8 Gerson M	6.6	35'	–	–	1	28 (26%)	–
5 Zé Lucas M	6.6	58'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
81 Otávio Costa G	6.5	93'	–	–	–	25 (13%)	–
25 Lucas Villalba D	6.3	93'	–	–	–	35 (28%)	1
97 Luciano Rodríguez F	6.3	23'	–	1	1	3 (2%)	–
38 Felipe Morais M	6.3	58'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	1
10 Matheus Pereira M	6.2	35'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–
67 João Costa M	6.2	79'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	1

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

Corinthians or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Corinthians

LLLDL

Cruzeiro

WLWLL

Last 3 meetings Corinthians · 0W 2D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

38%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

31%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Cruzeiro goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	10	7	3	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Corinthians goals · most likely 1–1 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Corinthians

No scorer data.

Cruzeiro

Matheus Pereira 9 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Away Scores More 34% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.1%	9.5%	6.8%	2.7%	0.8%
1	9.3%	14.9%	7.9%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.4%	7.7%	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.5%	3.0%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Corinthians	Draw	Cruzeiro
Corinthians	19.5%	3.6%	1.2%
Draw	13.3%	20.2%	11.0%
Cruzeiro	2.0%	5.3%	24.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Corinthians vs Cruzeiro

0 Corinthians Wins

2 Draws

1 Cruzeiro Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Feb 2026	Cruzeiro	1 - 1	Corinthians
23 Nov 2025	Cruzeiro	3 - 0	Corinthians
23 Jul 2025	Corinthians	0 - 0	Cruzeiro

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Corinthians — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Fluminense	L	1 - 3
17 Sep	H Estudiantes L.P.	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Flamengo	L	2 - 1
10 Sep	A Estudiantes L.P.	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	L	1 - 2

Cruzeiro — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Vitoria	W	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Atletico Paranaense	W	3 - 1
02 Sep	A Atletico-MG	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	A Vasco DA Gama	L	3 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Corinthians

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Fernando Diniz

1 Souza

21 Bidu

13 Henrique

3 Paulista

2 Matheuzinho

29 Allan

19 Carrillo

7 Bidon

8 Garro

37 César

18 Raul

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Hugo Souza	G
2	Matheuzinho	D
3	Gabriel Paulista	D
13	Gustavo Henrique	D
21	Matheus Bidu	D
19	André Carrillo	M
29	Allan	M
37	Kaio César	M
8	Rodrigo Garro	M
7	Breno Bidon	M
18	Pedro Raul	F

Substitutes

51	Kauê	G
20	Pedro Milans	D
4	João Pedro Tchoca	D
26	Fabrizio Angileri	D
55	Iago Machado	D
23	Matheus Pereira	M
14	Raniele	M
80	Alex Santana	M
35	Charles	M
61	Dieguinho	M
77	Jesse Lingard	M
56	Gui Negão	F

Cruzeiro

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Jorge Artur

81 Costa

25 Villalba

34 Jesus

43 Marcelo

23 Fagner

38 Morais

29 Romero

5 Lucas

67 Costa

19 Jorge

9 Rodrigues

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
81	Otávio Costa	G
23	Fagner	D
43	João Marcelo	D
34	Jonathan Jesus	D
25	Lucas Villalba	D
67	João Costa	M
5	Zé Lucas	M
29	Lucas Romero	M
38	Felipe Morais	M
9	Bruno Rodrigues	F
19	Kaio Jorge	F

Substitutes

51	Vitor Lamounier Rego	G
15	Fabrício Bruno	D
2	Kauã Moraes	D
27	Gabriel Rojas	D
12	William Furtado	D
8	Gerson	M
99	Keny Arroyo	F
11	Marquinhos	F
10	Matheus Pereira	M
94	Wanderson	F
16	Lucas Silva	M
97	Luciano Rodríguez	F