Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 22

Post on X

Sao Paulo

Away

AI call Gremio or draw

39%

31%

30%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction: Sportiko gives Gremio a 39% chance of winning, Sao Paulo 30% and the draw 31%. Last updated 9 Aug 2026, 00:03.

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 45+2'

Marcos Antônio assist: Luciano

Mathias Villasanti Yellow Card

45+5' ▮

HT 0–1

Jovane Cabral ⇄ Francis Amuzu

46' ⇄

Wallace assist: Carlos Vinícius

48' ⚽ 1–1

Juan Nardoni ⇄ Dodi

54' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Danielzinho ⇄ Damián Bobadilla

⇄ 71'

Ferreirinha ⇄ Cauly

▮ 75'

Luciano Yellow Card

⇄ 77'

Jonathan Calleri ⇄ André Silva

Carlos Vinícius ⇄ Martin Braithwaite

78' ⇄

Diego Caito Yellow Card

81' ▮

Cristian Pavón

86' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 89'

Pablo Maia ⇄ Gustavo Santana

⇄ 89'

Wendell ⇄ Victor Sá

Marlon Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

Mathias Villasanti ⇄ Walter Kannemann

90+1' ⇄

Cristian Pavón ⇄ Leonel Pérez

90+1' ⇄

▮ 90+2'

André Silva Yellow Card

Walter Kannemann Yellow Card

90+5' ▮

▮ 90+5'

Robert Arboleda Yellow Card

FT 2–1

Gremio

Match Stats

Sao Paulo

48% Ball Possession 52%

1.62 Expected Goals (xG) 1.37

12 Total Shots 18

5 Shots on Goal 5

3 Shots off Goal 8

4 Blocked Shots 5

8 Shots insidebox 12

4 Shots outsidebox 6

7 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 2

12 Fouls 19

4 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 3

421 Total passes 462

364 Passes accurate 392

86% Passes % 85%

0.13 goals_prevented 0.13

Gremio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
82 Wallace D	8.2	97'	1	–	1	57 (52%)	–
7 Cristian Pavón M	8.2	91'	1	–	1	38 (34%)	–
1 Weverton G	7.9	97'	–	–	–	35 (18%)	–
95 Carlos Vinícius F	7.9	78'	–	1	1	12 (11%)	–
19 Erick Noriega M	7.2	97'	–	–	1	62 (55%)	1
20 Mathias Villasanti M	7.0	91'	–	–	1	33 (28%)	2
6 Gustavo Martins D	6.9	97'	–	–	–	63 (60%)	1
9 Francis Amuzu F	6.9	52'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
77 Jovane Cabral M	6.7	45'	–	–	1	11 (11%)	–
22 Martin Braithwaite F	6.7	19'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
27 Diego Caito D	6.7	97'	–	–	1	47 (42%)	1
5 Juan Nardoni M	6.5	54'	–	–	1	20 (19%)	1
17 Dodi M	6.5	43'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
23 Marlon D	6.2	97'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	1
4 Walter Kannemann D	—	6'	–	–	–	1	–
33 Leonel Pérez M	—	6'	–	–	–	–	–

Sao Paulo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Marcos Antônio M	7.7	97'	1	–	2	57 (53%)	1
11 Ferreirinha M	7.5	71'	–	–	2	25 (21%)	1
23 Rafael G	7.0	97'	–	–	–	37 (26%)	–
10 Luciano M	7.0	97'	–	1	2	25 (22%)	2
43 Gustavo Santana M	6.7	8'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
16 Damián Bobadilla M	6.6	27'	–	–	2	17 (12%)	–
19 Lucas Ramon D	6.3	97'	–	–	1	22 (14%)	1
5 Robert Arboleda D	6.3	97'	–	–	1	55 (42%)	–
18 Wendell D	6.3	89'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	2
9 Jonathan Calleri F	6.3	77'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
94 Danielzinho M	6.3	70'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	–
27 Victor Sá F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
80 Cauly M	6.3	26'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
17 André Silva F	6.3	20'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
29 Pablo Maia M	6.2	89'	–	–	2	75 (69%)	1
54 Luis Osorio D	6.0	97'	–	–	–	50 (46%)	–

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Our lean

Gremio or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15.2%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Gremio

DLLLW

Sao Paulo

WDLLW

Last 3 meetings Gremio · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Gremio faces Sao Paulo on August 9, 2026. Both teams have shown competitive form, with Gremio currently averaging 1.8 goals per match and a solid defensive record, conceding just 1.1 goals per game. Sao Paulo, meanwhile, boasts a slightly lower scoring rate at 1.5 goals per match but has a strong midfield presence that can disrupt Gremio's rhythm. Key players to watch include Gremio's striker, who has been prolific this season, and Sao Paulo's creative midfielder, known for his playmaking abilities. This matchup promises to be closely contested, with both teams vying for crucial points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

39%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

30%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sao Paulo goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	10	6	2
1	12	15	7	2	1
2	8	8	4	1
3	3	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Gremio goals · most likely 1–1 (15.2%)

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Players in form

Gremio

Carlos Vinícius 10 gls

Sao Paulo

Luciano 8 gls

J. Calleri 8 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

56% Home (No Draw) 44% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals 30% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

22%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.9%	10.2%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%
1	12.0%	15.2%	6.6%	2.2%	0.5%
2	7.8%	7.6%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
3	2.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
4	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

45%

34%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
Gremio	18.9%	3.7%	1.3%
Draw	17.5%	23.1%	13.1%
Sao Paulo	1.9%	4.4%	16.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gremio vs Sao Paulo

1 Gremio Wins

0 Draws

2 Sao Paulo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Feb 2026	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Gremio
16 Oct 2025	Gremio	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
17 May 2025	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Gremio

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Gremio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Palmeiras	D	0 - 0
16 Sep	A Botafogo	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Vitoria	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Internacional	W	3 - 1

Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Internacional	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Palmeiras	L	2 - 0
09 Sep	A Boca Juniors	L	1 - 0
05 Sep	H Atletico-MG	W	2 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Sao Paulo

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Dorival Júnior

23 Rafael

18 Wendell

54 Osorio

5 Arboleda

19 Ramon

29 Maia

94 Danielzinho

11 Ferreirinha

10 Luciano

8 Antônio

9 Calleri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Rafael	G
19	Lucas Ramon	D
5	Robert Arboleda	D
54	Luis Osorio	D
18	Wendell	D
94	Danielzinho	M
29	Pablo Maia	M
8	Marcos Antônio	M
10	Luciano	M
11	Ferreirinha	M
9	Jonathan Calleri	F

Substitutes

16	Damián Bobadilla	M
80	Cauly	M
17	André Silva	F
27	Victor Sá	F
43	Gustavo Santana	M
31	Carlos Coronel	G
20	Aurélio Buta	D
35	Sabino	D
12	Iago Borduchi	D
22	Domingos Duarte	D
34	Tetê	F
28	Newton	M

Gremio

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Luis Castro

1 Weverton

23 Marlon

82 Wallace

6 Martins

27 Caito

19 Noriega

77 Cabral

5 Nardoni

20 Villasanti

7 Pavón

95 Vinícius

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Weverton	G
27	Diego Caito	D
6	Gustavo Martins	D
82	Wallace	D
23	Marlon	D
19	Erick Noriega	M
7	Cristian Pavón	M
20	Mathias Villasanti	M
5	Juan Nardoni	M
77	Jovane Cabral	M
95	Carlos Vinícius	F

Substitutes

9	Francis Amuzu	F
17	Dodi	M
22	Martin Braithwaite	F
4	Walter Kannemann	D
33	Leonel Pérez	M
12	Gabriel Grando	G
14	Marcos Rocha	D
3	Wagner Leonardo	D
38	Caio Paulista	D
37	Gabriel Mec	F
99	José Enamorado	F
30	Matheus Nascimento	F