Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 22

09 Aug 2026, 19:00

Post on X

Vasco DA Gama

Away

AI call Difficult Bahia win or draw

59%

24%

17%

Home Win · 2.00 Draw · 3.65 Away Win · 3.90

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: Sportiko gives Bahia a 59% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama 17% and the draw 24%. Last updated 7 Aug 2026, 08:01.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 19.6%

Both teams to score

25%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Bahia

DDDWW

Vasco DA Gama

WDWDL

Last 3 meetings Bahia · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A match, Bahia will face Vasco da Gama with both teams vying for crucial points. Bahia has shown a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match this season, while Vasco da Gama struggles offensively, scoring only 1 goal per match on average. The match could hinge on Bahia’s ability to capitalize on counter-attacks, given Vasco's tendency to leave space in transition. Additionally, Bahia's midfield control will be critical to dictate the pace and limit Vasco's attacking opportunities. Overall, this matchup presents an intriguing battle between Bahia's defense and Vasco's offense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

59%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Vasco DA Gama goals →

	0	1	2
0	12	3	1
1	20	8	1
2	19	7	1
3	12	4	1
4	6	2
5	2	1

↑ Bahia goals · most likely 1–0 (19.6%)

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Players in form

Bahia

Luciano Juba 7 gls

Vasco DA Gama

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

47% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Home Scores More 21% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	19.6%	7.9%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.5%	6.6%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
3	12.3%	4.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.9%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bahia	Draw	Vasco DA Gama
Bahia	52.4%	2.0%	0.2%
Draw	21.9%	15.6%	2.6%
Vasco DA Gama	1.1%	1.6%	2.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

44%

1.5

56%

71%

2.5

29%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

71%

24%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

86%

0.5

14%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama

2 Bahia Wins

0 Draws

1 Vasco DA Gama Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Feb 2026	Vasco DA Gama	0 - 1	Bahia
23 Nov 2025	Bahia	1 - 0	Vasco DA Gama
24 Sep 2025	Vasco DA Gama	3 - 1	Bahia

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Bahia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jul	A Fluminense	D	0 - 0
26 Jul	H Corinthians	D	1 - 1
21 Jul	A Atletico-MG	D	1 - 1
17 Jul	H Chapecoense-sc	W	2 - 0
30 May	H Botafogo	W	2 - 1

Vasco DA Gama — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A Fluminense	W	1 - 3
01 Aug	H Fluminense	D	0 - 0
29 Jul	H Independiente Medellin	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Mirassol	D	1 - 1
16 Jul	A Vitoria	L	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	+22	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	+19	39
3	Atletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	+9	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	+5	34
5	Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	+4	32
6	RB Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	+6	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	+2	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	+2	29
10	Atletico-MG	20	8	4	8	25	25	0	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	-3	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	+2	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	-9	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	-4	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	-4	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	-4	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	-4	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	-8	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	-10	21
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.