Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 20

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Mirassol

Away

AI call Vasco DA Gama or draw

37%

29%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol prediction: Sportiko gives Vasco DA Gama a 37% chance of winning, Mirassol 33% and the draw 29%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 01:28.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 30'

Igor Formiga assist: Reinaldo

⇄ 36'

José Aldo ⇄ Lucas Oliveira

HT 0–1

⇄ 46'

Gustavo Silva

Tchê Tchê ⇄ Nuno Moreira

59' ⇄

Adson ⇄ David

60' ⇄

▮ 66'

Walter Yellow Card

⇄ 69'

Edson Carioca ⇄ Fernandinho

⇄ 69'

Japa ⇄ Eduardo

Ramon Rique ⇄ Jair

70' ⇄

Cuiabano ⇄ Lucas Piton

71' ⇄

Cauan Barros ⇄ Johan Rojas

74' ⇄

Andrés Gómez

80' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 82'

Denilson ⇄ Chico

Nuno Moreira Yellow Card

83' ▮

FT 1–1

Vasco DA Gama

Match Stats

Mirassol

58% Ball Possession 42%

1.83 Expected Goals (xG) 0.77

20 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 4

10 Blocked Shots 1

16 Shots insidebox 5

4 Shots outsidebox 3

9 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 7

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

464 Total passes 349

372 Passes accurate 280

80% Passes % 80%

1.12 goals_prevented 1.12

Vasco DA Gama

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Andrés Gómez M	8.3	94'	1	–	4	28 (21%)	2
46 Carlos Cuesta D	7.2	94'	–	–	1	54 (49%)	1
30 Robert Renan D	7.2	94'	–	–	–	47 (37%)	1
28 Adson M	7.0	60'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	1
8 Jair M	7.0	24'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	2
2 Puma Rodríguez D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	52 (43%)	4
3 Tchê Tchê M	6.9	60'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	1
6 Lucas Piton D	6.7	23'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
10 Johan Rojas F	6.6	20'	–	–	1	23 (22%)	–
17 Nuno Moreira M	6.6	34'	–	–	–	20 (12%)	–
7 David F	6.6	34'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
77 Claudio Spinelli F	6.5	94'	–	–	3	11 (6%)	1
1 Léo Jardim G	6.3	94'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	–
88 Cauan Barros M	6.3	74'	–	–	–	43 (35%)	2
66 Cuiabano D	6.2	71'	–	–	–	26 (18%)	1
83 Ramon Rique M	6.2	70'	–	–	1	27 (15%)	1

Mirassol

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Walter G	8.2	94'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	–
34 João Victor D	8.0	94'	–	–	–	43 (36%)	1
32 Igor Formiga D	7.9	94'	1	–	2	27 (23%)	3
5 Japa M	7.3	69'	–	–	3	19 (17%)	1
6 Reinaldo D	7.2	94'	–	1	–	34 (24%)	1
95 Edson Carioca F	7.0	69'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	1
44 Gabriel Knesowitsch D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	1
21 José Aldo M	6.7	36'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	–
33 Eduardo M	6.7	25'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
8 Denilson M	6.6	82'	–	–	–	45 (38%)	1
2 Lucas Oliveira D	6.6	58'	–	–	1	18 (13%)	1
17 Fernandinho F	6.6	25'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	2
96 Carlos Eduardo F	6.6	49'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
10 Chico M	6.3	12'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
19 Gustavo Silva F	6.2	45'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
30 Bruno Santos F	6.0	94'	–	–	1	18 (12%)	1

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Vasco DA Gama or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.6%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Vasco DA Gama

WWWDL

Mirassol

WDWLD

Last 3 meetings Vasco DA Gama · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

Vasco da Gama faces Mirassol in an important Serie A clash. Vasco has shown a strong home record this season, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match, while Mirassol has been solid defensively, conceding only 1.2 goals per game. Both teams will aim to capitalize on their respective strengths; Vasco's attacking prowess against Mirassol's disciplined defense. The match promises to be competitive, with key players on both sides potentially influencing the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

37%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Mirassol goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	12	9	4	1
1	8	15	9	4	1
2	5	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Vasco DA Gama goals · most likely 1–1 (14.6%)

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Away (No Draw) 36% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 9% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 25% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	11.9%	9.1%	4.1%	1.4%
1	8.0%	14.6%	8.7%	3.9%	1.3%
2	4.6%	6.1%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.5%	1.9%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vasco DA Gama	Draw	Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama	11.9%	3.1%	1.3%
Draw	12.1%	20.6%	14.4%
Mirassol	1.9%	5.4%	29.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol

0 Vasco DA Gama Wins

0 Draws

3 Mirassol Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Jan 2026	Mirassol	2 - 1	Vasco DA Gama
02 Dec 2025	Vasco DA Gama	0 - 2	Mirassol
02 Aug 2025	Mirassol	3 - 2	Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Coritiba	W	5 - 0
15 Sep	H Santa Fe	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Gremio	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Santa Fe	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	A Fluminense	L	1 - 0

Mirassol — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Botafogo	W	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Vitoria	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Coritiba	W	1 - 2
02 Sep	A Flamengo	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Palmeiras	D	1 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Vasco DA Gama

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Pedro Emanuel

1 Jardim

66 Cuiabano

30 Renan

46 Cuesta

2 Rodríguez

3 Tchê

88 Barros

11 Gómez

83 Rique

28 Adson

77 Spinelli

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Léo Jardim	G
2	Puma Rodríguez	D
46	Carlos Cuesta	D
30	Robert Renan	D
66	Cuiabano	D
88	Cauan Barros	M
3	Tchê Tchê	M
28	Adson	M
83	Ramon Rique	M
11	Andrés Gómez	M
77	Claudio Spinelli	F

Substitutes

13	Daniel Fuzato	G
96	Paulo Henrique	D
43	Lucas Freitas	D
6	Lucas Piton	D
29	Paulinho	D
17	Nuno Moreira	M
60	João Vitor Silva	F
18	Marino Hinestroza	F
98	JP	M
8	Jair	M
10	Johan Rojas	F
7	David	F

Mirassol

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Rafael Guanaes

22 Walter

6 Reinaldo

44 Knesowitsch

34 Victor

32 Formiga

5 Japa

21 Aldo

8 Denilson

95 Carioca

30 Santos

19 Silva

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
22	Walter	G
32	Igor Formiga	D
34	João Victor	D
44	Gabriel Knesowitsch	D
6	Reinaldo	D
8	Denilson	M
21	José Aldo	M
5	Japa	M
19	Gustavo Silva	F
30	Bruno Santos	F
95	Edson Carioca	F

Substitutes

2	Lucas Oliveira	D
90	Thomazella	G
3	Willian Machado	D
12	Victor Luis	D
18	Elias	D
7	Shaylon	M
33	Eduardo	M
10	Chico	M
27	Antonio Galeano	F
17	Fernandinho	F
9	André Luis	F
96	Carlos Eduardo	F