Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 20

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Atletico-MG

Away

AI call Palmeiras to win or draw

66%

22%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG prediction: Sportiko gives Palmeiras a 66% chance of winning, Atletico-MG 12% and the draw 22%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 00:27.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

Joaquín Piquerez Penalty cancelled

16' 🖵

▮ 31'

Ángelo Preciado Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Maycon ⇄ Mamady Cissé

HT 0–0

⚽ 0–1 54'

Victor Hugo

Agustín Giay ⇄ Felipe Anderson

59' ⇄

Emiliano Martínez ⇄ Vitor Roque

59' ⇄

Paulinho

65' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Bernard ⇄ Alan Minda

⇄ 71'

Victor Hugo ⇄ Igor Gomes

Felipe Anderson assist: Vitor Roque

75' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 76'

Ruan Yellow Card

⚽ 1–2 77'

Igor Gomes assist: Alan Minda

Joaquín Piquerez ⇄ Arthur Gabriel

78' ⇄

Mauricio ⇄ Lucas Evangelista

78' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Ángelo Preciado ⇄ Vitor Hugo

⇄ 90'

Tomás Pérez ⇄ Alexsander

▮ 90+3'

Renan Lodi Yellow Card

FT 1–2

Palmeiras

Match Stats

Atletico-MG

69% Ball Possession 31%

22 Total Shots 9

7 Shots on Goal 4

9 Shots off Goal 4

6 Blocked Shots 1

14 Shots insidebox 6

8 Shots outsidebox 3

10 Corner Kicks 5

7 Fouls 11

0 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

661 Total passes 303

585 Passes accurate 218

10 Free Kicks 7

Palmeiras

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Felipe Anderson M	7.7	31'	1	–	1	17 (16%)	1
26 Murilo D	7.2	90'	–	–	4	105 (93%)	–
8 Andreas Pereira M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	67 (63%)	–
17 Marlon Freitas M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	130 (121%)	1
32 Emiliano Martínez M	6.8	59'	–	–	1	32 (28%)	1
10 Paulinho F	6.7	65'	–	–	2	26 (23%)	–
15 Gustavo Gómez D	6.6	90'	–	–	2	53 (45%)	1
9 Vitor Roque F	6.6	31'	–	1	2	1	–
11 Jhon Arias M	6.5	90'	–	–	6	44 (35%)	4
56 Arthur Gabriel D	6.5	12'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	1
22 Joaquín Piquerez D	6.4	78'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	2
4 Agustín Giay D	6.4	59'	–	–	–	57 (48%)	2
30 Lucas Evangelista M	6.2	12'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	–
18 Mauricio M	6.0	78'	–	–	2	40 (35%)	–
1 Carlos Miguel G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	–

Atletico-MG

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Igor Gomes M	8.0	19'	1	–	1	9 (9%)	–
30 Victor Hugo M	7.6	71'	1	–	1	19 (13%)	–
22 Everson G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	44 (16%)	–
27 Alan Minda F	6.9	19'	–	1	1	5 (4%)	–
13 Lyanco D	6.8	90'	–	–	1	32 (26%)	–
11 Bernard M	6.7	71'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	1
14 Vitor Hugo D	6.6	5'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
2 Natanael D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	1
16 Renan Lodi D	6.5	90'	–	–	2	29 (24%)	1
39 Mamady Cissé M	6.4	44'	–	–	1	16 (12%)	2
8 Maycon M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
9 Mateo Cassierra F	6.3	90'	–	–	2	23 (22%)	–
25 Tomás Pérez M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	2
23 Ángelo Preciado M	6.1	85'	–	–	–	24 (13%)	–
4 Ruan D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	22 (14%)	–

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Confidence Medium (66%)

At a glance

Our lean

Palmeiras to win or draw

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.4%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Palmeiras

DWWDD

Atletico-MG

DWLLW

Last 3 meetings Palmeiras · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A match, Palmeiras faces Atletico-MG, both teams having shown strong performances this season. Palmeiras boasts a solid home record, scoring an average of 2.1 goals per game while conceding 0.8. On the other hand, Atletico-MG has been effective on the road, with a goal-scoring average of 1.9 per match and a defensive record conceding 1.2. Key players to watch include Palmeiras’ leading scorer, who has netted 15 goals this season, and Atletico-MG's playmaker, contributing significantly to their attacking play. This clash promises to be competitive, with both teams vying for crucial points in the title race.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

66%

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

12%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico-MG goals →

	0	1	2
0	9	2
1	18	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	15	4	1
4	8	2
5	4	1

↑ Palmeiras goals · most likely 2–0 (20.4%)

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Players in form

Palmeiras

J. López 8 gls

Maurício 7 gls

Atletico-MG

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

96% Home (No Draw) 4% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

56% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

80% Home Scores More 16% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

20%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	1.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
1	17.8%	6.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.4%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	14.9%	4.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	8.2%	2.5%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

23%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Palmeiras	Draw	Atletico-MG
Palmeiras	58.6%	1.4%	0.1%
Draw	21.8%	12.1%	1.5%
Atletico-MG	1.2%	1.5%	1.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

86%

0.5

14%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

86%

0.5

14%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG

2 Palmeiras Wins

1 Draws

0 Atletico-MG Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Jan 2026	Atletico-MG	2 - 2	Palmeiras
03 Dec 2025	Atletico-MG	0 - 3	Palmeiras
20 Jul 2025	Palmeiras	3 - 2	Atletico-MG

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Palmeiras — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Gremio	D	0 - 0
12 Sep	H Sao Paulo	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	H LDU de Quito	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Botafogo	D	0 - 0
03 Sep	A Santos	D	0 - 0

Atletico-MG — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Fluminense	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	2 - 0
02 Sep	H Cruzeiro	W	2 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Palmeiras

Formation: 4-3-2-1 Coach: Abel Ferreira

1 Miguel

22 Piquerez

26 Murilo

15 Gómez

4 Giay

8 Pereira

32 Martínez

17 Freitas

11 Arias

18 Mauricio

10 Paulinho

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Carlos Miguel	G
4	Agustín Giay	D
15	Gustavo Gómez	D
26	Murilo	D
22	Joaquín Piquerez	D
17	Marlon Freitas	M
32	Emiliano Martínez	M
8	Andreas Pereira	M
18	Mauricio	M
11	Jhon Arias	M
10	Paulinho	F

Substitutes

14	Marcelo Lomba	G
21	Kaique	G
56	Arthur Gabriel	D
43	Luis Benedetti	D
48	Larson	M
45	Erick Belé	M
30	Lucas Evangelista	M
7	Felipe Anderson	M
9	Vitor Roque	F
37	Riquelme Fillipi	F
39	Heittor	F

Atletico-MG

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

22 Everson

16 Lodi

13 Lyanco

4 Ruan

2 Natanael

8 Maycon

25 Pérez

11 Bernard

30 Hugo

23 Preciado

9 Cassierra

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
22	Everson	G
2	Natanael	D
4	Ruan	D
13	Lyanco	D
16	Renan Lodi	D
25	Tomás Pérez	M
8	Maycon	M
23	Ángelo Preciado	M
30	Victor Hugo	M
11	Bernard	M
9	Mateo Cassierra	F

Substitutes

1	Gabriel Delfim	G
14	Vitor Hugo	D
36	Kauã Pascini	D
3	Iván Román	D
19	Reinier	M
48	João Pedro Porto Lucrécio "Gutte"	M
5	Alexsander	M
17	Igor Gomes	M
39	Mamady Cissé	M
92	Dudu	F
27	Alan Minda	F
29	Cauã Campos Soares	F