Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 20

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Sao Paulo

Away

AI call Flamengo to win

70%

21%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo prediction: Sportiko gives Flamengo a 70% chance of winning, Sao Paulo 10% and the draw 21%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 23:35.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%

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Timeline

HT 0–0

Léo Pereira assist: Jorginho

57' ⚽ 1–0

Lorran ⇄ Giorgian de Arrascaeta

58' ⇄

Alex Sandro Yellow Card

63' ▮

⇄ 66'

Artur ⇄ Ferreirinha

⇄ 67'

Danielzinho ⇄ Victor Sá

▮ 69'

Wendell Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 71'

Jonathan Calleri assist: Luis Osorio

Bruno Henrique ⇄ Everton

79' ⇄

Pedro ⇄ Wallace Yan

88' ⇄

Erick Pulgar ⇄ Evertton Araujo

88' ⇄

▮ 89'

Jonathan Calleri Yellow Card

⇄ 90'

Luciano ⇄ André Silva

Samuel Lino Goal Disallowed - offside

90+1' 🖵

⇄ 90+5'

Wendell ⇄ Sabino

▮ 90+12'

Marcos Antônio Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Flamengo

Match Stats

Sao Paulo

50% Ball Possession 50%

0.24 Expected Goals (xG) 0.15

3 Total Shots 2

1 Shots on Goal 0

2 Shots off Goal 2

0 Blocked Shots 0

3 Shots insidebox 2

0 Shots outsidebox 0

0 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 8

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 1

240 Total passes 238

208 Passes accurate 201

87% Passes % 84%

0.11 goals_prevented 0.11

Flamengo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Erick Pulgar M	6.9	48'	–	–	1	33 (29%)	2
26 Alex Sandro D	6.7	48'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	–
4 Léo Pereira D	6.7	48'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	1
1 Agustín Rossi G	6.6	48'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
22 Emerson Royal D	6.6	48'	–	–	–	19 (18%)	2
44 Vitão D	6.6	48'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	–
21 Jorginho M	6.6	48'	–	–	–	39 (35%)	–
16 Samuel Lino M	6.6	48'	–	–	1	17 (14%)	–
27 Bruno Henrique M	6.6	48'	–	–	–	2	1
9 Pedro F	6.3	48'	–	–	–	8 (5%)	–
99 Lorran M	6.3	48'	–	–	1	13 (12%)	–

Sao Paulo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Lucas Ramon D	6.9	48'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	1
18 Wendell D	6.9	48'	–	–	1	18 (15%)	2
5 Robert Arboleda D	6.7	48'	–	–	–	26 (21%)	1
29 Pablo Maia M	6.7	48'	–	–	–	28 (27%)	–
37 Artur M	6.7	48'	–	–	1	11 (9%)	1
10 Luciano F	6.7	48'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	2
23 Rafael G	6.6	48'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
94 Danielzinho M	6.6	48'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	–
8 Marcos Antônio M	6.5	48'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	1
9 Jonathan Calleri F	6.3	48'	–	–	–	19 (12%)	–
54 Luis Osorio D	6.3	48'	–	–	–	24 (21%)	–

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Confidence Medium (70%)

At a glance

Our lean

Flamengo to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.4%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Flamengo

DDWWW

Sao Paulo

DLLDD

Last 3 meetings Flamengo · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Flamengo faces Sao Paulo in a matchup that promises to showcase attacking football. Flamengo has demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, averaging 2 goals per game this season, while Sao Paulo's defense has been solid but vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Flamengo's possession-oriented style potentially dictating the pace. Both teams will look to capitalize on set pieces, an area where Flamengo has shown effectiveness. The outcome may hinge on key player performances, particularly in the attacking third.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

70%

45%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sao Paulo goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	2
1	19	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	14	4	1
4	7	2
5	3	1

↑ Flamengo goals · most likely 2–0 (20.4%)

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Players in form

Flamengo

Pedro 12 gls

Samuel Lino 5 gls

Sao Paulo

J. Calleri 7 gls

Luciano 6 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

96% Home (No Draw) 4% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

53% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

78% Home Scores More 18% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

21%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	2.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
1	19.0%	6.7%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.4%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	14.1%	4.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	7.3%	2.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Flamengo	Draw	Sao Paulo
Flamengo	50.9%	1.5%	0.2%
Draw	27.2%	13.7%	2.0%
Sao Paulo	1.3%	1.5%	1.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

40%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

89%

0.5

11%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

84%

0.5

16%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

1 Flamengo Wins

1 Draws

1 Sao Paulo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Jan 2026	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Flamengo
05 Nov 2025	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Flamengo
12 Jul 2025	Flamengo	2 - 0	Sao Paulo

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Flamengo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jul	A Internacional	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	H Sao Paulo	D	1 - 1
23 Jul	A Chapecoense-sc	W	0 - 4
17 Jul	H Olimpia	W	4 - 2
08 Jul	H Lausanne	W	2 - 0

Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Jul	A Flamengo	D	1 - 1
23 Jul	H Atletico Paranaense	L	1 - 2
31 May	A Remo	L	1 - 0
23 May	H Botafogo	D	1 - 1
20 May	H Millonarios	D	1 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	+22	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	+19	39
3	Atletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	+9	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	+5	34
5	Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	+4	32
6	RB Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	+6	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	+2	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	+2	29
10	Atletico-MG	20	8	4	8	25	25	0	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	-3	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	+2	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	-9	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	-4	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	-4	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	-4	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	-4	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	-8	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	-10	21
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Sao Paulo

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Junior Dorival

23 Rafael

18 Wendell

54 Osorio

5 Arboleda

19 Ramon

8 Antônio

94 Danielzinho

29 Maia

37 Artur

10 Luciano

9 Calleri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Rafael	G
19	Lucas Ramon	D
5	Robert Arboleda	D
54	Luis Osorio	D
18	Wendell	D
37	Artur	M
29	Pablo Maia	M
94	Danielzinho	M
8	Marcos Antônio	M
9	Jonathan Calleri	F
10	Luciano	F

Substitutes

31	Carlos Coronel	G
35	Sabino	D
56	Nicolas Bosshardt	D
53	Isac	D
20	Aurélio Buta	D
27	Victor Sá	F
34	Tetê	F
11	Ferreirinha	F
48	Djhordney Ferreira	M
80	Cauly	M
43	Gustavo Santana	M
17	André Silva	F

Flamengo

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Leonardo Jardim

1 Rossi

26 Sandro

4 Pereira

44 Vitão

22 Royal

21 Jorginho

5 Pulgar

27 Henrique

16 Lino

99 Lorran

9 Pedro

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Agustín Rossi	G
22	Emerson Royal	D
44	Vitão	D
4	Léo Pereira	D
26	Alex Sandro	D
5	Erick Pulgar	M
21	Jorginho	M
99	Lorran	M
16	Samuel Lino	M
27	Bruno Henrique	M
9	Pedro	F

Substitutes

42	Andrew	G
2	Guillermo Varela	D
61	João Victor	D
77	Johnny Goes	D
13	Danilo	D
6	Ayrton Lucas	D
11	Everton	F
8	Saúl Ñíguez	M
10	Giorgian de Arrascaeta	M
52	Evertton Araujo	M
79	Caio Joshua	M
64	Wallace Yan	F