Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 20

Post on X

Internacional

Away

AI call Difficult Atletico Paranaense win or draw

56%

28%

17%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Paranaense a 56% chance of winning, Internacional 17% and the draw 28%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 23:26.

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Under 2.5 Goals 72%

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Timeline

Leozinho assist: Kevin Viveros

45+1' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Kevin Viveros

60' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 62'

Matheus Bahia ⇄ Braian Aguirre

⇄ 63'

Félix Torres ⇄ Bruno Henrique

Steven Mendoza

65' ⇄

⇄ 69'

Alerrandro ⇄ Alan Patrick

Gilberto ⇄ Gastón Benavídez

81' ⇄

Leozinho

81' ⇄

Jádson ⇄ Juan Portilla

81' ⇄

⇄ 84'

Rodrigo Villagra ⇄ João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo

FT 2–0

Atletico Paranaense

Match Stats

Internacional

46% Ball Possession 54%

2.92 Expected Goals (xG) 1.15

14 Total Shots 13

4 Shots on Goal 3

9 Shots off Goal 5

1 Blocked Shots 5

11 Shots insidebox 9

3 Shots outsidebox 4

3 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 4

13 Fouls 8

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

345 Total passes 409

276 Passes accurate 317

80% Passes % 78%

-0.07 goals_prevented -0.07

Atletico Paranaense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Leozinho F	8.7	81'	1	–	4	20 (15%)	3
9 Kevin Viveros F	7.9	93'	1	1	5	10 (6%)	–
37 Lucas Esquivel D	7.7	93'	–	–	–	46 (32%)	5
23 Santos G	7.3	93'	–	–	–	23 (14%)	–
12 Gilberto M	7.3	81'	–	–	1	30 (23%)	1
29 Gastón Benavídez D	7.3	12'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D	7.2	93'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	–
16 Jádson M	7.0	81'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	4
8 João Cruz M	7.0	28'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
22 Carlos Terán D	7.0	93'	–	–	–	54 (49%)	2
14 Luiz Gustavo M	6.9	93'	–	–	1	31 (28%)	2
26 Claudinho M	6.6	93'	–	–	1	29 (24%)	2
7 Steven Mendoza F	6.3	65'	–	–	–	12 (8%)	–
11 Isaac F	6.3	12'	–	–	–	1	–
27 Juan Portilla M	6.2	12'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–

Internacional

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Anthoni G	6.9	93'	–	–	–	25 (16%)	–
5 Rodrigo Villagra M	6.9	84'	–	–	–	48 (45%)	2
26 Alexandro Bernabei F	6.9	93'	–	–	1	19 (13%)	–
15 Bruno Gomes M	6.7	93'	–	–	2	44 (35%)	1
35 Braian Aguirre D	6.7	31'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	2
8 Bruno Henrique M	6.7	30'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
7 Johan Carbonero F	6.6	93'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	–
6 Matheus Bahia M	6.5	62'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	1
10 Alan Patrick M	6.3	24'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	1
49 João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo F	6.3	9'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–
3 Guillermo Maripán D	6.2	93'	–	–	–	54 (40%)	–
28 Vitinho M	6.2	93'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	–
9 Alerrandro F	6.0	69'	–	–	2	14 (11%)	–
4 Félix Torres D	5.9	63'	–	–	1	49 (37%)	3
18 Jose Juninho D	5.9	93'	–	–	–	59 (43%)	1

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Atletico Paranaense win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 23.4%

Both teams to score

21%

Over 2.5 goals

28%

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Atletico Paranaense

WDLDW

Internacional

LWLLL

Last 3 meetings Atletico Paranaense · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Atletico Paranaense faces Internacional in a Serie A clash that promises to be competitive. Atletico Paranaense has shown a solid home record, with a strong defense allowing just 22 goals at home last season. In contrast, Internacional struggled on the road, securing only 4 wins in 19 away matches. Both teams possess talented attacking players, but Atletico's home form may give them an edge. Key battles in midfield will be crucial, as both teams aim to control possession and create goal-scoring opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

56%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Internacional goals →

	0	1	2
0	16	4	1
1	23	8	1
2	19	6	1
3	10	3
4	4	1
5	1

↑ Atletico Paranaense goals · most likely 1–0 (23.4%)

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Players in form

Atletico Paranaense

K. Viveros 18 gls

Internacional

J. Carbonero 7 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

79% BTTS No 21% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

44%

1.5

56%

72%

2.5

28%

88%

3.5

12%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

92% Home (No Draw) 8% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

39% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 6% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

44%

1.5

56%

72%

2.5

28%

88%

3.5

12%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

79% BTTS No 21% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

27%

28%

17%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	16.5%	3.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
1	23.4%	8.3%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.1%	5.7%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	10.0%	3.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
4	3.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

35%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

37%

36%

19%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Paranaense	Draw	Internacional
Atletico Paranaense	43.2%	1.6%	0.1%
Draw	25.1%	20.4%	2.5%
Internacional	1.3%	2.2%	3.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional

2 Atletico Paranaense Wins

1 Draws

0 Internacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Jan 2026	Internacional	0 - 1	Atletico Paranaense
11 Aug 2024	Internacional	2 - 2	Atletico Paranaense
21 Apr 2024	Atletico Paranaense	1 - 0	Internacional

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Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Bahia	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Coritiba	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Cruzeiro	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	H Fluminense	D	3 - 3
24 Aug	A Botafogo	W	2 - 3

Internacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	1 - 0
12 Sep	A Chapecoense-sc	W	1 - 2
06 Sep	H Santos	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Gremio	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	A Bahia	L	3 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Internacional

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Paulo Pezzolano

12 Anthoni

18 Juninho

3 Maripán

4 Torres

6 Bahia

5 Villagra

15 Gomes

28 Vitinho

26 Bernabei

7 Carbonero

9 Alerrandro

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Anthoni	G
4	Félix Torres	D
3	Guillermo Maripán	D
18	Jose Juninho	D
28	Vitinho	M
15	Bruno Gomes	M
5	Rodrigo Villagra	M
6	Matheus Bahia	M
7	Johan Carbonero	F
26	Alexandro Bernabei	F
9	Alerrandro	F

Substitutes

23	Matheus Cunha	G
25	Gabriel Mercado	D
53	Luiz Felipe	D
35	Braian Aguirre	D
46	Pedro Kauã	D
8	Bruno Henrique	M
10	Alan Patrick	M
31	Allex	M
27	Paulinho Paula	M
14	Alan Rodríguez	M
49	João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo	F
54	Fabricio Zechmeister do Prado	F