Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction
AI call
Sao Paulo or draw
46%
35%
19%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense prediction: Sportiko gives Sao Paulo a 46% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense 19% and the draw 35%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.
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Timeline
▮
18'
Arthur Dias
Yellow Card
Artur
19'
⚽
1–0
Rafael Tolói
⇄ Luis Osorio
23'
⇄
HT 1–0
⚽
1–1
46'
Leozinho
⇄
46'
Arthur Dias
⇄ Carlos Terán
⇄
46'
⇄ Claudinho
⚽
1–2
51'
Leozinho
assist: Lucas Esquivel
Pablo Maia
⇄ Ferreirinha
64'
⇄
Jonathan Calleri
⇄ André Silva
64'
⇄
Damián Bobadilla
⇄ Danielzinho
74'
⇄
⇄ Victor Sá
75'
⇄
⇄
76'
Leozinho
⇄
83'
Gilberto
FT 1–2
Sao Paulo
Match Stats
Atletico Paranaense
70%
Ball Possession
30%
0.85
Expected Goals (xG)
1.79
17
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
3
6
Shots off Goal
6
8
Blocked Shots
2
6
Shots insidebox
8
11
Shots outsidebox
3
7
Corner Kicks
3
Offsides
7
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
1
Red Cards
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
626
Total passes
263
567
Passes accurate
211
91%
Passes %
80%
-0.35
goals_prevented
-0.35
Sao Paulo
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Marcos Antônio M | 8.2 | 95' | – | – | – | 102 (95%) | 1 |
| 5 Robert Arboleda D | 7.9 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 70 (66%) | 5 |
| 37 Artur F | 7.5 | 95' | 1 | – | 1 | 41 (34%) | – |
| 29 Pablo Maia M | 7.2 | 64' | – | – | 2 | 64 (58%) | 2 |
| 10 Luciano F | 7.2 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 30 (26%) | 2 |
| 11 Ferreirinha F | 7.0 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 24 (22%) | – |
| 2 Rafael Tolói D | 6.9 | 23' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | 1 |
| 9 Jonathan Calleri F | 6.9 | 64' | – | – | 2 | 12 (9%) | – |
| 54 Luis Osorio D | 6.9 | 72' | – | – | – | 66 (62%) | 4 |
| 18 Wendell D | 6.7 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 61 (56%) | 2 |
| 17 André Silva F | 6.7 | 31' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 94 Danielzinho M | 6.6 | 21' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | 1 |
| 16 Damián Bobadilla M | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | – | 44 (38%) | – |
| 23 Rafael G | 6.3 | 95' | – | – | – | 27 (24%) | – |
| 19 Lucas Ramon D | 6.3 | 75' | – | – | – | 36 (32%) | 2 |
| 27 Victor Sá F | 6.2 | 20' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Leozinho F | 8.3 | 76' | 2 | – | 4 | 27 (19%) | – |
| 22 Carlos Terán D | 7.3 | 50' | – | – | 1 | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 37 Lucas Esquivel D | 7.2 | 95' | – | 1 | – | 37 (29%) | 1 |
| 23 Santos G | 7.0 | 95' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | – |
| 33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D | 7.0 | 95' | – | – | – | 28 (26%) | 2 |
| 14 Luiz Gustavo M | 7.0 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 26 (26%) | – |
| 12 Gilberto M | 6.9 | 83' | – | – | – | 26 (19%) | 2 |
| 26 Claudinho D | 6.9 | 50' | – | – | 1 | 11 (6%) | 3 |
| 7 Steven Mendoza M | 6.7 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 24 (18%) | – |
| 11 Isaac F | 6.6 | 19' | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| 8 João Cruz F | 6.5 | 45' | – | – | – | 15 (12%) | – |
| 16 Jádson M | 6.3 | 95' | – | – | – | 22 (20%) | 2 |
| 4 Arthur Dias D | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | 2 |
| 9 Kevin Viveros F | 6.2 | 95' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 2 Gilberto Junior D | 6.2 | 12' | – | – | – | – | – |
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Confidence
Low (46%)
At a glance
Our lean
Sao Paulo or draw
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Sao Paulo
DLLDD
Atletico Paranaense
LWDWW
Last 3 meetings
Sao Paulo · 2W 1D 0L
Match summary
In this Serie A clash, Sao Paulo faces Atletico Paranaense with both teams aiming for vital points. Sao Paulo has shown a solid home record, while Atletico Paranaense typically excels in counter-attacking play. Key players to watch include Sao Paulo's attacking threat and Atletico's midfield control. Statistical analysis indicates that Sao Paulo's defense will need to be vigilant against Atletico's pace on the break. Overall, this match promises to be a tactical battle, with both teams looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
46%
45%
Draw
35%
45%
Away
19%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Sao Paulo
J. Calleri
7 gls
Luciano
6 gls
Atletico Paranaense
K. Viveros
12 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
2
Sao Paulo Wins
1
Draws
0
Atletico Paranaense Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov 2024 | Sao Paulo | 2 - 1 | Atletico Paranaense |
| 03 Jul 2024 | Atletico Paranaense | 1 - 2 | Sao Paulo |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Atletico Paranaense | 1 - 1 | Sao Paulo |
Sao Paulo — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul | A Flamengo | D | 1 - 1 |
| 23 Jul | H Atletico Paranaense | L | 1 - 2 |
| 31 May | A Remo | L | 1 - 0 |
| 23 May | H Botafogo | D | 1 - 1 |
| 20 May | H Millonarios | D | 1 - 1 |
Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug | A Vitoria | L | 4 - 0 |
| 04 Aug | H Vitoria | W | 2 - 0 |
| 30 Jul | A Corinthians | D | 0 - 0 |
| 25 Jul | H Internacional | W | 2 - 0 |
| 23 Jul | A Sao Paulo | W | 1 - 2 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Palmeiras
|
21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 |
Flamengo
|
20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 |
Atletico Paranaense
|
21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 |
Fluminense
|
21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 |
Bahia
|
21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 |
RB Bragantino
|
20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 |
Cruzeiro
|
21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 |
Botafogo
|
20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 |
Corinthians
|
21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 |
Atletico-MG
|
20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 |
Coritiba
|
21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 |
Sao Paulo
|
20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 |
Vitoria
|
21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 |
Mirassol
|
20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 |
Santos
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 |
Internacional
|
21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 |
Gremio
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 |
Vasco DA Gama
|
20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 |
Remo
|
21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense B
|
20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense-sc
|
20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Sao Paulo
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Junior Dorival
23
Rafael
18
Wendell
2
Tolói
5
Arboleda
19
Ramon
8
Antônio
29
Maia
16
Bobadilla
10
Luciano
9
Calleri
37
Artur
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rafael | G |
| 19 | Lucas Ramon | D |
| 5 | Robert Arboleda | D |
| 2 | Rafael Tolói | D |
| 18 | Wendell | D |
| 16 | Damián Bobadilla | M |
| 29 | Pablo Maia | M |
| 8 | Marcos Antônio | M |
| 37 | Artur | F |
| 9 | Jonathan Calleri | F |
| 10 | Luciano | F |
Substitutes
| 54 | Luis Osorio | D |
| 31 | Carlos Coronel | G |
| 56 | Nicolas Bosshardt | D |
| 53 | Isac | D |
| 11 | Ferreirinha | F |
| 94 | Danielzinho | M |
| 34 | Tetê | F |
| 27 | Victor Sá | F |
| 48 | Djhordney Ferreira | M |
| 80 | Cauly | M |
| 17 | André Silva | F |
| 43 | Gustavo Santana | M |
Atletico Paranaense
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Joao Correia
23
Santos
37
Esquivel
33
Aguirre
4
Dias
7
Mendoza
14
Gustavo
16
Jádson
12
Gilberto
8
Cruz
21
Leozinho
9
Viveros
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Santos | G |
| 4 | Arthur Dias | D |
| 33 | Juan Felipe Aguirre | D |
| 37 | Lucas Esquivel | D |
| 12 | Gilberto | M |
| 16 | Jádson | M |
| 14 | Luiz Gustavo | M |
| 7 | Steven Mendoza | M |
| 21 | Leozinho | F |
| 8 | João Cruz | F |
| 9 | Kevin Viveros | F |
Substitutes
| 42 | Matheus Soares | G |
| 22 | Carlos Terán | D |
| 6 | Leonardo Derik | D |
| 26 | Claudinho | D |
| 2 | Gilberto Junior | D |
| 3 | Léo | D |
| 27 | Juan Portilla | M |
| 63 | Diogo Riquelme | M |
| 53 | Dudu | M |
| 11 | Isaac | F |
| 70 | Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F |
| 19 | Jorge Rivaldo | F |