Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 17

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Bayer Leverkusen

Away

Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

AI call Bayer Leverkusen or draw

26%

27%

47%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: Sportiko gives Hamburger SV a 26% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen 47% and the draw 27%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:30.

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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Our lean

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

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Hamburger SV

WLLLW

Bayer Leverkusen

WWDWL

Last 3 meetings Hamburger SV · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, Hamburger SV hosts Bayer Leverkusen on March 4, 2026. Hamburger SV has shown resilience at home, with a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1 goal per match this season. However, Bayer Leverkusen boasts one of the league's most potent attacks, averaging 2.5 goals per game, led by their dynamic forward line. Historically, Leverkusen has performed well against HSV, winning 70% of their last five encounters. The match will likely hinge on HSV's ability to contain Leverkusen's offensive threats while capitalizing on set pieces to exploit any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

47%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	13	9	4	2
1	9	13	9	4	1
2	4	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Hamburger SV goals · most likely 0–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Hamburger SV

No scorer data.

Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick 16 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen

0 Hamburger SV Wins

1 Draws

2 Bayer Leverkusen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 May 2026	Bayer Leverkusen	1 - 1	Hamburger SV
17 Feb 2018	Hamburger SV	1 - 2	Bayer Leverkusen
24 Sep 2017	Bayer Leverkusen	3 - 0	Hamburger SV

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H 1. FC Köln	W	2 - 1
13 Sep	A RB Leipzig	L	5 - 0
06 Sep	H FSV Mainz 05	L	0 - 5
29 Aug	A Borussia Dortmund	L	2 - 0
24 Aug	A Verl	W	0 - 3

Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	2 - 0
16 Sep	H Celje	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A FC Augsburg	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	4 - 0
29 Aug	A SV Elversberg	L	3 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	+86	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	+36	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	+19	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	+22	62
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65	52	+13	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	+21	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51	57	-6	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61	65	-4	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45	61	-16	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	-9	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	-14	39
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42	53	-11	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	-14	38
14	1. FC Köln	34	7	11	16	49	63	-14	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37	60	-23	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45	69	-24	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41	72	-31	26
18	FC St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29	60	-31	26

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.