Arouca vs Tondela Prediction
FT
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
AI call
Arouca or draw
50%
28%
22%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Arouca vs Tondela prediction: Sportiko gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, Tondela 22% and the draw 28%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Timeline
Taichi Fukui
20'
⚽
1–0
Omar Fayed
Yellow Card
39'
▮
Bas Kuipers
Yellow Card
41'
▮
▮
41'
Cicero
Yellow Card
HT 1–0
Omar Fayed
⇄ Diogo Monteiro
59'
⇄
⇄
61'
Cicero
⇄ Helder Tavares
Ivan Barbero
⇄ Dylan Nandín
63'
⇄
Naïs Djouahra
⇄ Hyun-ju Lee
63'
⇄
⚽
1–1
65'
Rony Lopes
assist: Makan Aïko
⇄
73'
Makan Aïko
⇄ Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
⇄
73'
Hugo Félix
⇄ Joe Hodge
Alfonso Trezza
assist: Tiago Esgaio
77'
⚽
2–1
Pablo Gozálbez
⇄ Pedro Santos
78'
⇄
Taichi Fukui
⇄ Mateo Flores
78'
⇄
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
81'
▮
⇄
81'
Rodrigo Conceição
⇄ Arjen Van Der Heide
⇄
82'
Pedro Maranhão
⇄ João Afonso
Hyun-ju Lee
assist: Dylan Nandín
85'
⚽
3–1
FT 3–1
Arouca
Match Stats
Tondela
53%
Ball Possession
47%
1.60
Expected Goals (xG)
0.57
16
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
2
8
Shots off Goal
3
4
Blocked Shots
6
11
Shots insidebox
4
5
Shots outsidebox
7
5
Corner Kicks
6
3
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
1
Red Cards
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
456
Total passes
402
370
Passes accurate
325
81%
Passes %
81%
-1.43
goals_prevented
-1.43
Arouca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Taichi Fukui M | 8.7 | 79' | 1 | – | 2 | 33 (26%) | 2 |
| 28 Tiago Esgaio D | 8.2 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 48 (36%) | 4 |
| 19 Alfonso Trezza M | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 4 | 14 (11%) | 1 |
| 14 Hyun-ju Lee M | 7.2 | 27' | 1 | – | 1 | 14 (9%) | – |
| 23 Dylan Nandín F | 7.2 | 27' | – | 1 | – | 12 (7%) | – |
| 66 Omar Fayed D | 7.2 | 59' | – | – | – | 50 (43%) | 2 |
| 10 Pablo Gozálbez M | 7.0 | 79' | – | – | 2 | 20 (18%) | 3 |
| 7 Naïs Djouahra M | 7.0 | 63' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | – |
| 89 Pedro Santos M | 6.9 | 11' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | 1 |
| 46 Mateo Flores M | 6.7 | 11' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | – |
| 15 Javi Sánchez D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 75 (64%) | – |
| 25 Bas Kuipers D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (28%) | 1 |
| 22 Espen Van Ee M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (39%) | 4 |
| 6 Diogo Monteiro D | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | – | 14 (14%) | 2 |
| 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (29%) | – |
| 17 Ivan Barbero F | 6.5 | 63' | – | – | 2 | 13 (11%) | 1 |
Tondela
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Rony Lopes F | 7.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 40 (28%) | 1 |
| 44 João Silva D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (45%) | 4 |
| 90 Makan Aïko F | 7.0 | 73' | – | 1 | – | 13 (10%) | 1 |
| 7 Pedro Maranhão F | 6.9 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 17 (10%) | 2 |
| 4 Christian Marques D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 50 (46%) | 1 |
| 26 Arjen Van Der Heide F | 6.6 | 9' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | 1 |
| 31 Bernardo Fontes G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (23%) | – |
| 48 Tiago Manso M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 26 (21%) | 3 |
| 10 Joe Hodge M | 6.5 | 17' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | 2 |
| 79 Hugo Félix M | 6.5 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 25 (20%) | – |
| 27 Rodrigo Conceição M | 6.3 | 81' | – | – | – | 28 (25%) | – |
| 32 Juan Rodríguez D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (46%) | – |
| 5 João Afonso D | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 8 Helder Tavares M | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
| 23 Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka F | 6.3 | 17' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 97 Cicero M | 5.9 | 61' | – | – | – | 29 (22%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Medium (55%)
At a glance
Our lean
Arouca or draw
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Arouca
DLDWL
Tondela
WWWLL
Last 3 meetings
Arouca · 1W 1D 1L
Match summary
In the upcoming Primeira Liga clash on May 17, 2026, Arouca will host Tondela at their home ground. Arouca has shown strong form at home, with a win rate of approximately 60% in their last ten matches, leveraging solid defensive statistics that have seen them concede just 0.9 goals per game. Conversely, Tondela struggles on the road, with a 30% win rate in away fixtures this season and a tendency to concede over 1.5 goals per match. Key players to watch include Arouca's leading scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and Tondela's playmaker, who provides crucial assists. Arouca’s home advantage and Tondela’s away form suggest a favorable outcome for the hosts.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Arouca
Barbero
4 gls
Tondela
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Arouca vs Tondela
1
Arouca Wins
1
Draws
1
Tondela Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan 2026 | Tondela | 3 - 1 | Arouca |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Tondela | 2 - 2 | Arouca |
| 29 Oct 2021 | Arouca | 2 - 0 | Tondela |
Arouca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Sporting CP | D | 2 - 2 |
| 13 Sep | H Santa Clara | L | 1 - 2 |
| 07 Sep | A Estoril | D | 0 - 0 |
| 29 Aug | H Maritimo | W | 2 - 1 |
| 23 Aug | A FC Porto | L | 2 - 0 |
Tondela — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Imortal Albufeira | W | 1 - 5 |
| 12 Sep | A Portimonense | W | 0 - 2 |
| 05 Sep | H FC Porto B | W | 3 - 0 |
| 28 Aug | A União de Leiria | L | 2 - 0 |
| 21 Aug | H Academica | L | 0 - 2 |
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |
SC Braga
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |
Academico Viseu
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 |
Estrela
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |
GIL Vicente
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |
Maritimo
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |
Moreirense
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |
Famalicao
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |
Vitória SC
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 |
Rio Ave
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 |
Casa Pia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
Tondela
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Goncalo Feio
31
Bernardo
32
Rodriguez
4
Marques
44
Silva
27
Conceicao
79
Felix
97
Cicero
48
Manso
90
Aiko
16
Lopes
7
Maranhao
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bernardo | G |
| 44 | J. Silva | D |
| 4 | C. Marques | D |
| 32 | J. Rodriguez | D |
| 48 | T. Manso | M |
| 97 | Cicero | M |
| 79 | H. Felix | M |
| 27 | R. Conceicao | M |
| 7 | Pedro Maranhao | F |
| 16 | Rony Lopes | F |
| 90 | M. Aiko | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | G. Souza | G |
| 5 | J. Afonso | D |
| 15 | S. Sithole | M |
| 2 | Bebeto | D |
| 23 | B. Kimpioka | F |
| 10 | J. Hodge | M |
| 8 | H. Tavares | M |
| 29 | J. Siebatcheu | F |
| 26 | A. van der Heide | F |
Arouca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Vasco Seabra
12
Arruabarrena
25
Kuipers
15
Sanchez
66
Fayed
28
Esgaio
21
Fukui
22
Ee
7
Djouahra
10
Gozalbez
19
Trezza
17
Barbero
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | I. De Arruabarrena | G |
| 28 | Tiago Esgaio | D |
| 66 | O. Fayed | D |
| 15 | J. Sanchez | D |
| 25 | B. Kuipers | D |
| 22 | E. van Ee | M |
| 21 | T. Fukui | M |
| 19 | A. Trezza | M |
| 10 | P. Gozalbez | M |
| 7 | N. Djouahra | M |
| 17 | I. Barbero | F |
Substitutes
| 30 | J. Vinarcik | G |
| 89 | Pedro Santos | M |
| 9 | F. Mayulu | F |
| 24 | B. Mansilla | F |
| 2 | J. Silva | D |
| 23 | D. Nandin | F |
| 6 | D. Monteiro | D |
| 14 | H. Lee | M |
| 46 | M. Flores | M |