Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 28

Post on X

AZ Alkmaar

Away

Euroborg, Groningen

AI call Difficult AZ Alkmaar win or draw

18%

25%

56%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Sportiko gives Groningen a 18% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar 56% and the draw 25%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:01.

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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult AZ Alkmaar win or draw

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Groningen

WDDLL

AZ Alkmaar

WLDWW

Last 3 meetings Groningen · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Eredivisie clash, Groningen hosts AZ Alkmaar, a matchup that could significantly impact both teams' standings. Groningen currently struggles in the league, sitting near the relegation zone, with a home record showing just 2 wins in their last 10 matches. In contrast, AZ Alkmaar is contending for European spots, demonstrating strong away form with 6 wins in their last 10 away fixtures. Key to the game will be Groningen's defense, which has conceded 1.5 goals per match this season, against an AZ side averaging 2 goals per game. If Groningen can tighten their defense and capitalize on home advantage, they may stand a chance; however, AZ's attacking prowess makes them the favorites in this encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

18%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

56%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	15	12	6	2	1
1	7	12	9	5	2	1
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Groningen goals · most likely 0–1 (15.2%)

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Players in form

Groningen

T. van Bergen 9 gls

AZ Alkmaar

T. Parrott 16 gls

S. Mijnans 11 gls

AI match tools

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Head to Head: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar

0 Groningen Wins

1 Draws

2 AZ Alkmaar Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Aug 2025	AZ Alkmaar	4 - 1	Groningen
11 May 2025	AZ Alkmaar	3 - 0	Groningen
25 Aug 2024	Groningen	0 - 0	AZ Alkmaar

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Groningen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H PEC Zwolle	W	3 - 0
12 Sep	A GO Ahead Eagles	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Twente	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Fortuna Sittard	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A PSV Eindhoven	L	5 - 1

AZ Alkmaar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	A Sunderland	L	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Willem II	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Heerenveen	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H GO Ahead Eagles	W	5 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	27	3	4	101	45	+56	84
2	Feyenoord	34	19	8	7	70	44	+26	65
3	NEC Nijmegen	34	16	11	7	77	53	+24	59
4	Twente	34	15	13	6	59	40	+19	58
5	Ajax	34	14	14	6	62	41	+21	56
6	Utrecht	34	15	8	11	55	42	+13	53
7	AZ Alkmaar	34	14	10	10	58	51	+7	52
8	Heerenveen	34	14	9	11	57	53	+4	51
9	Groningen	34	14	6	14	49	45	+4	48
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	7	15	40	62	-22	43
11	Fortuna Sittard	34	11	6	17	49	63	-14	39
12	GO Ahead Eagles	34	8	14	12	54	53	+1	38
13	Excelsior	34	10	8	16	43	56	-13	38
14	Telstar	34	9	10	15	49	55	-6	37
15	PEC Zwolle	34	9	10	15	44	71	-27	37
16	FC Volendam	34	8	8	18	35	55	-20	32
17	NAC Breda	34	6	11	17	35	58	-23	29
18	Heracles	34	5	4	25	35	85	-50	19

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.