Excelsior vs Heerenveen Prediction

Eredivisie Eredivisie · Regular Season - 26
FT
Post on X
AI call Difficult Heerenveen win or draw
23%
26%
51%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Excelsior vs Heerenveen prediction: Sportiko gives Excelsior a 23% chance of winning, Heerenveen 51% and the draw 26%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 16:30.

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean
Difficult Heerenveen win or draw
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Excelsior
DLDWW
Heerenveen
WDLDL
Last 3 meetings Excelsior · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Excelsior will host Heerenveen in a crucial Eredivisie clash on March 7, 2026. Excelsior has struggled defensively this season, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match, which could be a significant vulnerability against Heerenveen’s potent attack, averaging 1.8 goals per game. Heerenveen, currently positioned in the upper half of the table, will look to capitalize on set-pieces and counter-attacks, areas where Excelsior has been particularly weak. Additionally, home advantage may benefit Excelsior, who have performed better at home but will need to tighten their defense to secure points. Expect a tactical battle with potential for high-scoring given both teams' recent form.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
23%
45%
Draw
26%
45%
Away
51%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Excelsior
N. Naujoks 10 gls
Heerenveen
J. Trenskow 13 gls

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Head to Head: Excelsior vs Heerenveen

2 Excelsior Wins
0 Draws
1 Heerenveen Wins
Date Home Score Away
04 Oct 2025 Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior
19 Jan 2024 Excelsior 3 - 0 Heerenveen
23 Sep 2023 Heerenveen 0 - 3 Excelsior
See all 10 meetings — Premium

Excelsior — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Ajax D 2 - 2
13 Sep H Utrecht L 1 - 2
08 Sep A NEC Nijmegen D 2 - 2
05 Sep A Willem II W 0 - 3
29 Aug H Sparta Rotterdam W 2 - 1

Heerenveen — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Sparta Rotterdam W 0 - 4
13 Sep H Telstar D 0 - 0
06 Sep H AZ Alkmaar L 2 - 3
30 Aug A Willem II D 2 - 2
22 Aug H PEC Zwolle L 0 - 2

Eredivisie Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
PSV Eindhoven
34 27 3 4 +56 84
2
Feyenoord
34 19 8 7 +26 65
3
NEC Nijmegen
34 16 11 7 +24 59
4
Twente
34 15 13 6 +19 58
5
Ajax
34 14 14 6 +21 56
6
Utrecht
34 15 8 11 +13 53
7
AZ Alkmaar
34 14 10 10 +7 52
8
Heerenveen
34 14 9 11 +4 51
9
Groningen
34 14 6 14 +4 48
10
Sparta Rotterdam
34 12 7 15 -22 43
11
Fortuna Sittard
34 11 6 17 -14 39
12
GO Ahead Eagles
34 8 14 12 +1 38
13
Excelsior
34 10 8 16 -13 38
14
Telstar
34 9 10 15 -6 37
15
PEC Zwolle
34 9 10 15 -27 37
16
FC Volendam
34 8 8 18 -20 32
17
NAC Breda
34 6 11 17 -23 29
18
Heracles
34 5 4 25 -50 19

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.

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